Canola steady pending StatsCan report

WINNIPEG, (MarketsFarm) – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Futures canola contracts were steady to higher on Thursday, as bids continue to be range-bound.

That situation is very unlikely to change anytime soon, said a trader, adding two reports could provide the impetus to push canola prices up or down to a greater extent. The first will be the production estimates from Statistics Canada to be released August 28. The federal agency’s survey-based results could provide a clearer picture of this year’s canola production.

The second will be the next supply and demand report from the United States Department of Agriculture on September 12. Traders and farmers firmly believe the USDA overestimated its corn and soybean numbers. The September estimates could straighten that out.

The wildcard in all this remains the threat of frost. Next week’s overnight temperatures on the Prairies were forecast to be in the single digits, raising the specter of frost. Any severe damage would force major revisions to crop estimates.

There were 17,459 contracts traded on Thursday, which compares with Wednesday when 13,019 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 11,136 contracts traded.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

Price Change
Canola Nov 453.10 unchanged
Jan 461.10 up 0.60
Mar 468.10 up 1.30
May 473.80 up 1.50

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were weaker on Thursday, as the prospect of future exports weighed on values.

Although China purchased almost 75,600 tonnes of United States soybeans this week, the country has 50 vessels carrying Brazilian soybeans, with a dozen more cargoes locked in. The amounts were reportedly enough to take China into October before needing more soybeans.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its weekly export sales report. Old crop soybeans came in at 25,900 tonnes, well within trade expectations. New crop soybeans totaled 792,600 tonnes, well above expectations.

The sales report listed soymeal exports at 118,600 tonnes, within market predictions. Soyoil was at 2,200 tonnes, less than half of expectations.

The Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour moved into its third day with the eastern leg in Illinois finding average soybean pod counts were more than 997 pods with three by three-foot squares in fields. Last year’s tour average was almost 1,329 pods. In Iowa, the western leg estimated average pod counts at 1,096, slightly above last year’s 1,082 pods.

CORN futures were firm on Thursday, on technical maneuvering and some positive feelings from export sales.

Export sales tallied 119,300 tonnes of old crop, which was within trade predictions and an increase from the previous week. New crop came in at 301,600 tonnes, also within estimates.

The  Pro Farmer tour estimated corn yields in Illinois at 171.17 bushels per acre (BPA), down from last year’s estimate of 192.63. In Iowa, the tour projected corn yields above average.

The Trump administration has been getting backlash from the agricultural community over waivers handed to 31 oil refineries now exempt from requirements to blend corn-based ethanol with gasoline. Yesterday, POET and Marquis Energy announced their plants were either shutting down or scaling back production.

Ethanol production in Brazil has been estimated to jump by nearly 71 per cent in 2019/20. CONAB pegged production at almost 8.50 million barrels.

WHEAT futures were mixed on Thursday, due to technical maneuvering that resulted in gains for Chicago and Kansas City, but losses for Minneapolis.

The USDA reported export sales of 594,600 tonnes, which exceed market expectations. Sales increased 29 per cent over the previous week.

Saudi Arabia tendered a purchase for 780,000 tonnes of feed barley. The tender closes tomorrow.

Tunisia purchased 92,000 tons of soft milling wheat for delivery in September and October.

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York was down 33 cents at US$55.35 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US75.23 cents, down from 75.31 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.3293.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne.

Canola Nov 19  453.10s  unch  unch

Canola Jan 20  461.10s  +0.60  +0.13%

Canola Mar 20  468.10s  +1.30  +0.28%

Canola May 20  473.80s  +1.50  +0.32%

Canola Jul 20  479.40s  +1.70  +0.36%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.

 

Chicago

Soybean Sep 19  856-0s  -4-4  -0.52%

Soybean Nov 19  868-6s  -4-2  -0.49%

Soybean Jan 20  882-4s  -4-2  -0.48%

Soybean Mar 20  895-4s  -4-6  -0.53%

Soybean May 20  907-0s  -4-6  -0.52%

 

Soybean Meal Sep 19  293.7s  -1.0  -0.34%

Soybean Meal Oct 19  295.7s  -0.9  -0.30%

Soybean Meal Dec 19  299.3s  -1.0  -0.33%

 

Soybean Oil Sep 19  28.54s  -0.20  -0.70%

Soybean Oil Oct 19  28.65s  -0.22  -0.76%

Soybean Oil Dec 19  28.90s  -0.22  -0.76%

 

Corn Sep 19  363-2s  +0-6  +0.21%

Corn Dec 19  371-0s  +0-6  +0.20%

Corn Mar 20  383-0s  +0-4  +0.13%

Corn May 20  390-6s  +0-4  +0.13%

Corn Jul 20  397-2s  +0-4  +0.13%

 

Oats Sep 19  265-2s  -6-2  -2.30%

Oats Dec 19  266-2s  -4-0  -1.48%

Oats Mar 20  270-6s  -3-6  -1.37%

Oats May 20  270-4s  -3-2  -1.19%

Oats Jul 20  272-2s  -3-2  -1.18%

 

Wheat Sep 19  467-2s  +4-6  +1.03%

Wheat Dec 19  471-6s  +3-6  +0.80%

Wheat Mar 20  477-6s  +3-2  +0.68%

Wheat May 20  481-6s  +2-4  +0.52%

Wheat Jul 20  485-6s  +2-0  +0.41%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Sep 19  498-4s  -3-6  -0.75%

Spring Wheat Dec 19  513-4s  -1-4  -0.29%

Spring Wheat Mar 20  526-2s  -3-0  -0.57%

Spring Wheat May 20  536-0s  -3-0  -0.56%

Spring Wheat Jul 20  545-6s  -2-6  -0.50%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Sep 19  393-2s  +7-0  +1.81%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 19  404-2s  +3-6  +0.94%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 20  418-2s  +3-0  +0.72%

Hard Red Wheat May 20  428-6s  +3-0  +0.70%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 20  438-4s  +2-4  +0.57%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade

Live Cattle Aug 19  104.975s  +2.300  +2.24%

Live Cattle Oct 19  101.100s  +0.875  +0.87%

Live Cattle Dec 19  106.100s  +0.800  +0.76%

 

Feeder Cattle Aug 19  138.400s  +1.025  +0.75%

Feeder Cattle Sep 19  136.425s  +1.125  +0.83%

Feeder Cattle Oct 19  135.475s  +0.925  +0.69%

 

Lean Hogs Oct 19  62.300s  -1.000  -1.58%

Lean Hogs Dec 19  61.550s  -1.125  -1.79%

Lean Hogs Feb 20  68.575s  -1.250  -1.79%

 

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