Canola steady; anticipation of new stock data

Winnipeg (CNS Canada) – The ICE Futures Canada canola market ended mixed on Wednesday. The front-month July contract was boosted by gains in soyoil while the more deferred contracts were pressured by strength in the Canadian dollar.

Traders were positioning themselves ahead of North American stocks data that will be released over the next two days. It starts with the release of USDA stocks and production numbers tomorrow and Canadian stocks data on Friday.

Spring seeding is in full bloom and most farmers are too busy to do much selling, which lifted the market. As well, some parts of Alberta are currently too wet to seed.

Canola continues to chop around in its recently-established range and the funds are still sitting long, according to a trader.

However, strength in the Canadian dollar was bearish for canola and technical selling was a feature.

Around 16,549 canola contracts were traded on Wednesday, which compares with Tuesday when around 9,593 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 7,620 of the contracts traded.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

The soybean market dipped on Wednesday as traders were positioning themselves ahead of Thursday’s USDA stocks and production estimates.

There are ideas the agency will hike its production estimate for Brazil’s soybean crop to 116.3 million tonnes. At the same time, the USDA could lower its estimate for the U.S. old crop carryout to 546 million bushels, which would be down four million bushels from the last estimate.

The collision that occurred between a ship and a major pier in Rosario, Argentina a few weeks ago, could be more serious than initially though. There are ideas the pier could be unusable for the next 18 months. That particular section of the harbor was responsible for delivering 22 per cent of the country’s exports last year, according to a report from CHS Hedging.

Corn futures finished little changed on Wednesday.

Most analysts expected U.S. ending stocks to be around around the 2.18 billion bushel mark, which would be slightly bearish for prices.

However, President Trump announced new rules on ethanol today, which lent support to corn futures. The deal could help corn growers by allowing the sale of high-ethanol blended gasoline all year. Currently, blends higher than 10 per cent are restricted due to concerns the higher-content gas contributes to smog on hot days.

Chicago wheat chalked up losses in speculative selling.

Forecasts calling for rain in large parts of the U.S. Plains were bearish for prices.

As well, most analysts expect tomorrow’s all-wheat production figure to come in at 1.77 billion bushels for the U.S. That would be 33 million bushels more than last year.

 

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up $2.08 at US$71.14 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US77.78 cents, up from 77.20 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.2857.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne.

Canola May 18 529.90s +1.90 +0.36%

Canola Jul 18 530.40s +1.90 +0.36%

Canola Nov 18 517.80s -1.00 -0.19%

Canola Jan 19 522.60s -1.20 -0.23%

Canola Mar 19 525.10s -1.80 -0.34%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.

 

Chicago

Soybeans May 18 1007-2s -4-0 -0.40%

Soybeans Jul 18 1015-6s -4-4 -0.44%

Soybeans Aug 18 1019-2s -4-0 -0.39%

Soybeans Sep 18 1020-6s -3-0 -0.29%

Soybeans Nov 18 1024-2s -1-0 -0.10%

 

Soybean Meal May 18 389.2s +0.5 +0.13%

Soybean Meal Jul 18 385.8s -0.1 -0.03%

Soybean Meal Aug 18 382.3s -0.9 -0.23%

 

Soybean Oil May 18 30.87s +0.38 +1.25%

Soybean Oil Jul 18 31.03s +0.34 +1.11%

Soybean Oil Aug 18 31.14s +0.34 +1.10%

 

Corn May 18 394-6s -0-6 -0.19%

Corn Jul 18 402-6s -0-4 -0.12%

Corn Sep 18 411-0s -0-2 -0.06%

Corn Dec 18 419-4s unch unch

Corn Mar 19 428-0s -0-2 -0.06%

 

Oats May 18 228-6s -0-2 -0.11%

Oats Jul 18 240-4s +0-4 +0.21%

Oats Sep 18 244-6s +0-6 +0.31%

Oats Dec 18 255-2s +1-6 +0.69%

Oats Mar 19 259-2s +1-2 +0.48%

 

Wheat May 18 514-4s -3-2 -0.63%

Wheat Jul 18 510-4s -4-0 -0.78%

Wheat Sep 18 527-2s -4-2 -0.80%

Wheat Dec 18 548-6s -4-2 -0.77%

Wheat Mar 19 567-6s -3-6 -0.66%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat May 18 615-2s -4-0 -0.65%

Spring Wheat Jul 18 611-2s -2-6 -0.45%

Spring Wheat Sep 18 617-6s -3-2 -0.52%

Spring Wheat Dec 18 629-4s -3-6 -0.59%

Spring Wheat Mar 19 641-4s -3-0 -0.47%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat May 18 512-0s -6-4 -1.25%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 18 531-4s -6-6 -1.25%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 18 549-6s -6-6 -1.21%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 18 575-4s -6-4 -1.12%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 19 594-2s -5-6 -0.96%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade

Live Cattle Jun 18 105.675s -0.625 -0.59%

Live Cattle Aug 18 103.375s -1.100 -1.05%

Live Cattle Oct 18 106.750s -0.600 -0.56%

 

Feeder Cattle May 18 137.150s -0.575 -0.42%

Feeder Cattle Aug 18 142.700s -1.025 -0.71%

Feeder Cattle Sep 18 143.175s -0.850 -0.59%

 

Lean Hogs May 18 65.925s -0.275 -0.42%

Lean Hogs Jun 18 76.575s +0.275 +0.36%

Lean Hogs Jul 18 77.600s -0.125 -0.16%

 

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