Canola, soy trend in different directions

Winnipeg – ICE Futures Canada canola contracts were stronger on Tuesday, largely ignoring a downturn in the Chicago Board of Trade soy complex.

The losses in soybeans were tied to renewed concerns over the trade dispute between China and the United States, with any issues between those two countries possibly opening the door for more canola business.

Weakness in the Canadian dollar provided some underlying support for canola as well, as the currency fell to its lowest levels in two months.

While much needed precipitation is in the forecasts for many areas of Western Canada over the next week, there were still enough areas of concern to keep some weather premiums in the market.

However, declines in CBOT soybeans did put some pressure on values. Large supplies overhanging the market and chart resistance to the upside also weighed on prices.

About 22,751 canola contracts traded, which compares with Monday when 6,971 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 14,956 of the contracts traded.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade were lower on Tuesday, as the ongoing trade spat between China and the United States came back to the forefront.

After it was looking like a deal between the two countries may be near last week, today saw the U.S. move forward with plans for placing tariffs on US$50 billion worth of Chinese imports.

The resulting concerns over retaliation weighed on the grains and oilseeds, with a U.S. trade delegation set to visit China later this week.

Continued labour disruptions in Brazil were somewhat supportive, as exports from the country are being curtailed.

In other news, the U.S. Justice Department granted approval of Bayer’s acquisition of Monsanto, but will require Bayer to divest itself of about US$9 billion in assets. BASF will purchase those assets, which include Bayer’s canola and soybean seed businesses, and the Liberty herbicide business.

CORN futures were also lower, following soybeans and wheat.

U.S. farmers were thought to have made good seeding progress over the past week, with crop conditions generally favourable.

However, solid export demand provided some support, helping temper the declines.

WHEAT futures were all lower, as speculators booked profits amid ideas that the market was looking overbought.

Drought conditions in the southern Plains remained supportive, although the yield losses there may be factored into the futures for the time being.

Weather concerns elsewhere in the world, including Russia and Australia, also helped limit the losses.

 

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York was down $1.15 at US$66.73 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US76.81 cents, down from 76.92 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.3019.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne.

Canola Jul 18 537.80s +1.60 +0.30%

Canola Nov 18 527.10s +3.90 +0.75%

Canola Jan 19 532.80s +4.90 +0.93%

Canola Mar 19 535.20s +5.10 +0.96%

Canola May 19 535.30s +4.50 +0.85%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.

 

Chicago

Soybeans Jul 18 1030-4s -11-0 -1.06%

Soybeans Aug 18 1035-0s -11-0 -1.05%

Soybeans Sep 18 1038-2s -10-6 -1.02%

Soybeans Nov 18 1042-4s -11-0 -1.04%

Soybeans Jan 19 1045-6s -10-4 -0.99%

 

Soybean Meal Jul 18 380.2s -0.1 -0.03%

Soybean Meal Aug 18 380.6s -0.2 -0.05%

Soybean Meal Sep 18 379.9s -0.4 -0.11%

 

Soybean Oil Jul 18 31.21s -0.13 -0.41%

Soybean Oil Aug 18 31.33s -0.12 -0.38%

Soybean Oil Sep 18 31.49s -0.12 -0.38%

 

Corn Jul 18 400-0s -6-0 -1.48%

Corn Sep 18 409-0s -6-0 -1.45%

Corn Dec 18 419-0s -6-0 -1.41%

Corn Mar 19 427-4s -6-0 -1.38%

Corn May 19 432-0s -5-6 -1.31%

 

Oats Jul 18 244-0s -4-6 -1.91%

Oats Sep 18 247-4s -4-4 -1.79%

Oats Dec 18 251-2s -6-4 -2.52%

Oats Mar 19 255-6s -6-0 -2.29%

Oats May 19 259-0s -5-6 -2.17%

 

Wheat Jul 18 536-4s -6-4 -1.20%

Wheat Sep 18 553-4s -6-2 -1.12%

Wheat Dec 18 572-0s -6-4 -1.12%

Wheat Mar 19 588-4s -6-0 -1.01%

Wheat May 19 596-0s -6-2 -1.04%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Jul 18 628-0s -16-2 -2.52%

Spring Wheat Sep 18 635-6s -13-0 -2.00%

Spring Wheat Dec 18 645-4s -9-4 -1.45%

Spring Wheat Mar 19 655-0s -7-4 -1.13%

Spring Wheat May 19 661-6s -6-4 -0.97%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Jul 18 556-4s -7-4 -1.33%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 18 574-4s -8-0 -1.37%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 18 597-6s -8-4 -1.40%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 19 613-0s -8-6 -1.41%

Hard Red Wheat May 19 619-2s -9-0 -1.43%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade

Live Cattle Jun 18 103.125s -1.525 -1.46%

Live Cattle Aug 18 101.450s -0.850 -0.83%

Live Cattle Oct 18 104.850s -0.975 -0.92%

 

Feeder Cattle Aug 18 144.975s +0.050 +0.03%

Feeder Cattle Sep 18 144.725s +0.275 +0.19%

Feeder Cattle Oct 18 144.375s +0.050 +0.03%

 

Lean Hogs Jun 18 75.675s +1.475 +1.99%

Lean Hogs Jul 18 78.850s +1.300 +1.68%

Lean Hogs Aug 18 77.425s +1.350 +1.77%

 

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By Phil Franz-Warkentin Commodity News Service Canada's recent articles

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