Canola rebounds slightly at week’s end

WINNIPEG – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Futures canola contracts were stronger on Friday, with a trader noting the markets will continue to be choppy and nervous.

He said this will continue with the transition from unsettled spring weather to summer-like weather during June.

Also, the trader pointed out canola can only do so much on its own in the markets, as prices are dependent on the strength of oil and meal values.

The markets will continue be volatile due to dryness on the Canadian Prairies and wet conditions in the U.S., according to MarketsFarm Pro’s Mike Jubinville. And, MarketsFarm’s weather expert, Bruce Burnett, has forecast rain for the Prairies next week.

There’s a difference of opinion between Statistics Canada and the United States Department of Agriculture’s attache in Canada when it comes to canola exports. While Statistics Canada estimated the current crop year’s exports to hit 9.3 million tonnes, the USDA’s attache has predicted Canadian canola exports of 9.75 million tonnes. For the 2019/20 crop year, the attache has estimated canola exports of 10.3 million tonnes, which is 2.3 million tonnes more than Statistics Canada’s projection.

The United States markets will be closed for Memorial Day on Monday, May 27. However, the canola market will be open.

There were 12,219 contracts traded on Friday, which compares with Thursday when 16,078 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 7,388 contracts traded.
Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

Price Change
Canola Jul 444.40 up 2.60
Nov 457.90 up 2.90
Jan 463.10 up 2.70
Mar 468.10 up 2.40

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were stronger on Friday, due to wet conditions causing planting delays.

The U.S. Secretary of Agriculture, Sonny Perdue, announced on Thursday a US$16 billion aid package for U.S. farmers negatively affected by the country’s trade war with China. Of the amount, US$14.5 billion has been earmarked for direct payments to farmers. Perdue did not offer any per crop payments, rather the amounts will be set by county and will include 2018 acres. The secretary has yet to announce the rates per county.

Brazil’s 2018/19 soybean harvest has been estimated at more than 116 million tonnes, according to a poll of analysts. The estimate was up by 0.6 per cent from an earlier estimate.

Argentina’s soybean harvest was reported at 85 per cent and still on track for 56.0 million tonnes.

Consultancy firm Coceral revised its estimate of the European Union rapeseed crop downward by 600,000 tonnes at 17.9 million tonnes.

CORN futures were higher on Friday, also due to wet conditions causing planting delays, plus limited farmer sales.

Projected corn acres in the U.S. could drop by two million to 4 million acres, according to a report.

The USDA announced a sale of 111,765 tonnes of corn by private exporters to Mexico.

Brazil’s 2018/19 corn harvest was estimated at almost 97.5 million tonnes.

Argentina’s corn harvest was 36 per cent complete and on target for 48.0 million tonnes.

Ukraine’s corn harvest was revised downward by 7.5 per cent at just under 33.1 million tonnes.

WHEAT futures were stronger on Friday, due to spillover from soybeans, planting delays, technical buying and unfavourable planting conditions elsewhere, such as Australia and the Black Sea region.

Argentina’s wheat was estimated to be a little over three per cent planted. Expectations are for approximately 15.8 million acres to be seeded, an increase of about 494,000 acres from last year.

Strategie Grain lowered its projection for the EU wheat crop, not including durum, by 900,000 at almost 144 million tonnes.

Russia’s 2019/20 total exports were estimated to be 49.4 million tonnes, with wheat set to account for 77 per cent of exports.

Ukraine’s 2018/19 wheat crop was projected to be 26.9 million tonnes, an increase of 9.3 per cent from previous estimates.

 

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York was up 72 cents at US$58.63 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US74.37 cents, up from 74.19 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.3447.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne.

 

Canola Jul 19 444.40s +2.60 +0.59%

Canola Nov 19 457.90s +2.90 +0.64%

Canola Jan 20 463.10s +2.70 +0.59%

Canola Mar 20 468.10s +2.40 +0.52%

Canola May 20 472.90s +2.40 +0.51%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.

 

Chicago

Soybean Jul 19 829-6s +8-2 +1.00%

Soybean Aug 19 836-4s +8-2 +1.00%

Soybean Sep 19 843-4s +8-2 +0.99%

Soybean Nov 19 856-2s +8-0 +0.94%

Soybean Jan 20 868-2s +8-0 +0.93%

 

Soybean Meal Jul 19 300.5s +3.3 +1.11%

Soybean Meal Aug 19 301.9s +3.0 +1.00%

Soybean Meal Sep 19 303.6s +2.9 +0.96%

 

Soybean Oil Jul 19 27.01s +0.23 +0.86%

Soybean Oil Aug 19 27.14s +0.23 +0.85%

Soybean Oil Sep 19 27.27s +0.22 +0.81%

 

Corn Jul 19 404-2s +14-4 +3.72%

Corn Sep 19 412-4s +14-0 +3.51%

Corn Dec 19 419-6s +11-6 +2.88%

Corn Mar 20 429-2s +10-0 +2.39%

Corn May 20 432-2s +8-6 +2.07%

 

Oats Jul 19 308-4s +4-0 +1.31%

Oats Sep 19 285-2s -0-6 -0.26%

Oats Dec 19 275-4s -0-6 -0.27%

Oats Mar 20 276-4s -0-6 -0.27%

Oats May 20 274-0s -0-6 -0.27%

 

Wheat Jul 19 489-4s +19-2 +4.09%

Wheat Sep 19 496-6s +18-4 +3.87%

Wheat Dec 19 509-6s +17-2 +3.50%

Wheat Mar 20 522-2s +16-2 +3.21%

Wheat May 20 528-4s +16-0 +3.12%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Jul 19 548-0s +13-6 +2.57%

Spring Wheat Sep 19 555-0s +12-6 +2.35%

Spring Wheat Dec 19 566-0s +11-0 +1.98%

Spring Wheat Mar 20 578-4s +10-0 +1.76%

Spring Wheat May 20 586-2s +9-0 +1.56%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Jul 19 442-0s +16-6 +3.94%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 19 453-2s +16-4 +3.78%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 19 475-4s +16-6 +3.65%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 20 496-6s +16-2 +3.38%

Hard Red Wheat May 20 510-0s +15-0 +3.03%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade

Live Cattle Jun 19 111.175s +0.375 +0.34%

Live Cattle Aug 19 107.950s -0.200 -0.18%

Live Cattle Oct 19 107.775s -0.275 -0.25%

 

Feeder Cattle Aug 19 143.225s +0.200 +0.14%

Feeder Cattle Sep 19 143.875s -0.125 -0.09%

Feeder Cattle Oct 19 144.225s -0.525 -0.36%

 

Lean Hogs Jun 19 86.425s -3.000 -3.35%

Lean Hogs Jul 19 87.950s -3.000 -3.30%

Lean Hogs Aug 19 89.300s -3.000 -3.25%

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