Canola futures edge up, export pace slows

Canola futures edged higher on Friday and posted a modest $4.30 a tonne gain over the week.

Soy meal led the market higher on Friday, but soy oil was barely changed.

Soybeans and meal were supported by forecasts for growing dry areas in Argentina, but that was offset by forecast for rain in Brazil. The dry weather in Argentina raises fears that the developing La Nina will deliver a dry season to the world’s largest soybean meal exporter.

Corn and wheat rose, mostly on short covering.

Speculators hold a near record large short position. Talk that there might be new export sales coming was the trigger to cause speculators to unwind some short positions.

CANOLA MOVEMENT SHRINKS

After a spectacular movement for canola last week, things slowed in the week to Nov. 12.

Canola exports fell to 133,000 tonnes, down from a record high 470,000 tonnes the week before.

Wheat exports for the week were 358,300 tonnes, up from 238,400.

Although wheat exports in the week rose, it was a slower week generally for offshore crop movement with the total at 868,300 tonnes, down from 1.219 million the week before. Only eight ships were cleared at Vancouver, down from 14 the week before. The vessel line up rose to 20 ships from 16.

At Prince Rupert, one ship was cleared, down from three the week before. The line up rose to eight from six.

RAILWAY COMMENTS

CN Rail had the following comments about the week to Nov. 11.

“Vancouver terminals lost more than 200 unload opportunities because of terminal issues (minor derailments, computer issues, slow unloading); an additional 400 unloads were missed due to CN and CP trains falling back, causing “terminal out of car time.” A late-week CP mainline outage is causing bunching of traffic destined to Vancouver terminals into Week 16. Weather was not an issue in Week 15.

“The Prince Rupert pipeline continues to lighten as shippers favour other lanes, and lack of weekend unloading limits terminal throughput.”

CP Rail’s report had this to say:

“This week’s numbers reflect some impact from a derailment in a strategically challenging location in British Columbia late on the evening of Nov. 9. The incident did not involve dangerous goods, nor did it result in any injuries or public safety issues. CP expects to see further impacts from this incident in Week 16”

CANOLA CRUSH

After a good showing last week, the domestic canola crush fell to 176,517 tonnes down almost 10 percent. That represented capacity use of just under 80 percent compared to more than 83 percent in the year so far.

The total to date was 2.63 million tonnes, still behind last year’s 2.68 million.

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up $1.41 at US$56.55 per barrel. Crude has risen recently on cuts by OPEC, but the market is also concerned that production increases in the United States could undermine that effort.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US78.43 cents, up slightly from 78.41 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.2750.

The S&P/TSX composite index rose 63.20 points, or 0.40 per cent to 15,998.57.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 100.12 points, or 0.43 percent, to 23,358.24, the S&P 500 lost 6.79 points, or 0.26 percent, to 2,578.85 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 10.50 points, or 0.15 percent, to 6,782.79.

For the week, the TSX composite fell 0.2 percent, the Dow fell 0.27 percent, the S&P 500 fell 0.13 percent, and Nasdaq was down 0.47 percent.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne.

Canola Jan 18   519.40s   +2.00   +0.39%

Canola Mar 18   527.20s   +2.10   +0.40%

Canola May 18   531.10s   +2.10   +0.40%

Canola Jul 18   533.90s   +2.10   +0.39%

Canola Nov 18   507.20s   +3.00   +0.60%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.

 

Chicago

Soybeans Jan 18   990-4s   +18-4   +1.90%

Soybeans Mar 18   1001-4s   +18-2   +1.86%

Soybeans May 18   1011-0s   +18-2   +1.84%

Soybeans Jul 18   1019-4s   +18-0   +1.80%

Soybeans Aug 18   1020-2s   +17-2   +1.72%

 

Soybean Meal Dec 17   318.2s   +7.7   +2.48%

Soybean Meal Jan 18   320.0s   +7.5   +2.40%

Soybean Meal Mar 18   323.1s  +7.6   +2.41%

 

Soybean Oil Dec 17   34.44s   +0.01   +0.03%

Soybean Oil Jan 18   34.59s   unch   unch

Soybean Oil Mar 18   34.80s   -0.01   -0.03%

 

Corn Dec 17   343-0s   +6-4   +1.93%

Corn Mar 18   355-0s   +6-0   +1.72%

Corn May 18   363-4s   +6-0   +1.68%

Corn Jul 18   371-2s   +6-0   +1.64%

Corn Sep 18   378-4s   +6-0   +1.61%

 

Oats Dec 17   257-0s   -5-2   -2.00%

Oats Mar 18   272-2s   -5-0   -1.80%

Oats May 18   279-0s   -5-4   -1.93%

Oats Jul 18   282-0s   -6-2   -2.17%

Oats Sep 18   280-0s   -5-6  -2.01%

 

Wheat Dec 17   427-2s   +5-6   +1.36%

Wheat Mar 18   443-4s   +5-4   +1.26%

Wheat May 18   454-2s   +4-4   +1.00%

Wheat Jul 18   466-6s   +4-0   +0.86%

Wheat Sep 18   481-2s   +3-6   +0.79%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Dec 17   635-0s   +4-6   +0.75%

Spring Wheat Mar 18   650-0s   +4-6   +0.74%

Spring Wheat May 18   656-0s   +4-0   +0.61%

Spring Wheat Jul 18   657-2s   +4-6   +0.73%

Spring Wheat Sep 18   639-6s   +2-0   +0.31%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Dec 17   422-0s   +5-0   +1.20%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 18   439-4s   +5-0   +1.15%

Hard Red Wheat May 18   452-2s   +5-0   +1.12%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 18   469-4s   +4-4   +0.97%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 18   486-4s   +4-2   +0.88%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade

Live Cattle Dec 17   118.850s -0.700   -0.59%

Live Cattle Feb 18   124.675s   -0.450   -0.36%

Live Cattle Apr 18   124.875s   -0.500   -0.40%

 

Feeder Cattle Jan 18   151.725s   -2.175   -1.41%

Feeder Cattle Mar 18   150.125s   -1.975   -1.30%

Feeder Cattle Apr 18   150.175s   -2.050 -1.35%

 

Lean Hogs Dec 17   60.650s   +0.550   +0.92%

Lean Hogs Feb 18   67.075s   +0.500   +0.75%

Lean Hogs Apr 18   71.150s   +0.275   +0.39%

 

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