Canola futures drop for 3rd day

WINNIPEG (MarketsFarm) – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Futures canola contracts were weaker Thursday, for a third consecutive day as the losses on the Chicago soy complex and the Prairie harvest weighed on values.

The Canadian dollar also provided pressure as the loonie was up by more than a tenth of a cent by mid-afternoon Thursday at 75.54 U.S. cents.

Some headway in resolving the Canada/China dispute could be made in the near future, as the federal government appointed a new ambassador to China yesterday. Business executive Dominic Barton, who has experience in dealing with China, has succeeded John McCallum who was fired in January.

There were 14,873 contracts traded on Thursday, which compares with Wednesday when 9,645 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 5,790 contracts traded.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

Price Change
Canola Nov 445.30 dn 1.20
Jan 453.20 dn 1.30
Mar 460.00 dn 1.50
May 466.20 dn 1.70

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were weaker on Thursday, as news of United States/China trade talks was not well received.

The U.S. and China announced on Thursday that they agreed to face-to-face trade talks in Washington early next month. Following a weekend of hiking tariffs on each other and raising the specter of plunging the global economy into recession, top officials from both countries discussed matters during a teleconference on Tuesday. Meanwhile, lower level officials will meet for talks this month.

Although U.S. soybeans are cheaper on the global market than those from Brazil or Argentina, China’s import tariffs have made them less competitive to the world’s largest importer of soybeans. Also, China has been sourcing more protein feeds from Russia, reducing its reliance on the U.S.

Hurricane Dorian has regained strength as it approaches the South Carolina coast. Crops in the hurricane’s path are in danger of severe damage. Elsewhere in the U.S., cool temperatures in the northern Border States have raised concerns about frost. Meanwhile growing conditions are favourable for crops to mature and that has weighed on values.

With the Labour Day long weekend, the USDA has delayed its weekly export sales report to Friday. Market expectations have predicted old crop sales of minus 150,000 to plus 100,000 tonnes. New crop sales were projected to be 200,000 to 600,000 tonnes. Soymeal sales were forecast to be 125,000 to 325,000 tonnes. Soyoil predictions ranged from zero to 28,000 tonnes

During a webinar on Tuesday, Allendale Inc. predicted U.S. soybean yields to be 46.13 bushels per acre. Meanwhile, FC Stone projected corn yields of 48.3 BPA. The USDA’s official estimate is 48.5. The USDA releases its next supply and demand report on Sept. 12, which could see revisions to the department’s estimates.

The USDA attaché in China projected that country’s soybean imports at 80 million tonnes, down 5 million tonnes from the USDA’s official estimate.

CORN futures were steady on Thursday, after incurring contract lows for the previous two days.

The Energy Information Administration reported ethanol production for the week ended August 30 was 1.013 million barrels per day (BPD). That’s down 25,000 BPD from the previous report and the lowest weekly total since April. Stocks rose 3.4 per cent to 23.801 million barrels.

Export sales projections called for zero to 100,000 tonnes of old crop and 500,000 to 800,000 tonnes of new crop.

Allendale projected U.S. corn yields for this year to be 167.71 bushels per acre. FC Stone has called for 168.40 BPA and Brugler Marketing predicted 167.20 BPA. The USDA’s official estimate is 169.50 BPA.

In international purchases, South Korea issued a tender for 55,000 tonnes of corn, and Algeria purchased 30,000 to 40,000 tonnes most likely from Argentina.

WHEAT futures were stronger on Thursday, as the U.S. dollar weakened and made its wheat more competitive.

Trade predictions for export sales called for 400,000 to 800,000 tonnes.

The Russian Agriculture Ministry estimated the country’s wheat production for 2019 to be 75.00 million tonnes.

Argentina’s Ag Ministry said its wheat crop is projected to reach 21.00 million tonnes. That’s 500,000 tonnes more than the USDA’s estimate.

Australian brokerage firm IKON Commodities estimated that country’s wheat crop to be 19.00 million tonnes. That’s down from the ABARES June estimate of 21.2 million tonnes.

In international purchases, Turkey bought 250,000 tonnes of optional origin wheat and South Korea bought 50,000 tonnes of U.S. wheat. Japan issued a tender for 120,000 tonnes of feed wheat and Saudi Arabia tendered for 595,000 tonnes of wheat.

 

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York was up four cents at US$56.30 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US75.60 cents, up from 74.40 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.3228.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne.

Canola Nov 19 445.30s -1.20 -0.27%

Canola Jan 20 453.20s -1.30 -0.29%

Canola Mar 20 460.00s -1.50 -0.33%

Canola May 20 466.20s -1.70 -0.36%

Canola Jul 20 472.20s -1.90 -0.40%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.

 

Chicago

Soybean Sep 19 849-6s -12-6 -1.48%

Soybean Nov 19 861-4s -14-0 -1.60%

Soybean Jan 20 875-4s -13-6 -1.55%

Soybean Mar 20 888-6s -13-0 -1.44%

Soybean May 20 899-6s -12-6 -1.40%

 

Soybean Meal Sep 19 288.7s -3.5 -1.20%

Soybean Meal Oct 19 290.7s -3.9 -1.32%

Soybean Meal Dec 19 294.5s -4.0 -1.34%

 

Soybean Oil Sep 19 28.47s -0.32 -1.11%

Soybean Oil Oct 19 28.46s -0.38 -1.32%

Soybean Oil Dec 19 28.64s -0.35 -1.21%

 

Corn Sep 19 346-4s +0-4 +0.14%

Corn Dec 19 358-6s +0-2 +0.07%

Corn Mar 20 371-6s unch unch

Corn May 20 380-6s +0-2 +0.07%

Corn Jul 20 387-6s unch unch

 

Oats Sep 19 275-0s +11-0 +4.17%

Oats Dec 19 267-6s unch unch

Oats Mar 20 269-6s -1-0 -0.37%

Oats May 20 268-4s -1-6 -0.65%

Oats Jul 20 269-6s -2-4 -0.92%

 

Wheat Sep 19 464-0s +7-6 +1.70%

Wheat Dec 19 466-2s +5-4 +1.19%

Wheat Mar 20 472-4s +5-4 +1.18%

Wheat May 20 477-0s +5-6 +1.22%

Wheat Jul 20 480-0s +5-0 +1.05%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Sep 19 484-4s +8-0 +1.68%

Spring Wheat Dec 19 502-0s +8-0 +1.62%

Spring Wheat Mar 20 515-4s +7-4 +1.48%

Spring Wheat May 20 526-0s +8-0 +1.54%

Spring Wheat Jul 20 536-6s +8-4 +1.61%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Sep 19 382-0s +8-0 +2.14%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 19 393-6s +9-2 +2.41%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 20 407-4s +7-6 +1.94%

Hard Red Wheat May 20 417-0s +6-4 +1.58%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 20 425-6s +5-4 +1.31%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade

Live Cattle Oct 19 97.875s -1.150 -1.16%

Live Cattle Dec 19 102.225s -1.350 -1.30%

Live Cattle Feb 20 108.400s -0.900 -0.82%

 

Feeder Cattle Sep 19 134.400s -1.150 -0.85%

Feeder Cattle Oct 19 132.325s -1.100 -0.82%

Feeder Cattle Nov 19 131.575s -0.500 -0.38%

 

Lean Hogs Oct 19 66.300s -0.825 -1.23%

Lean Hogs Dec 19 65.475s +0.250 +0.38%

Lean Hogs Feb 20 73.850s +0.825 +1.13%

 

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