Canola futures drop but within expected range

WINNIPEG, (MarketsFarm) – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Futures canola contracts were lower on Thursday, remaining mostly range-bound and following trends set earlier in the week.
Harvest progress has put pressure on canola prices, as regions of the Prairies that didn’t receive significant snow are almost finished harvesting canola.

Manitoba’s canola harvest is 80 percent complete, along with 58 per cent of Saskatchewan’s canola crop. Alberta’s crop report will be released Friday afternoon.

A stronger tone for the soy complex on the Chicago Board of Trade failed to give canola prices a boost. Soybeans were stronger due to rumours of positive trade sentiments between the United States and China. However, Chinese officials wouldn’t say how much U.S. agriculture goods would be purchased, or when negotiations will continue.

A comparatively stronger Canadian dollar also put pressure on canola values. The dollar was just over 76.14 U.S. cents on Thursday.

On Thursday, 37,436 contracts were traded, which compares with Wednesday when 23,406 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 34,930 contracts traded.

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were stronger on Thursday, bolstered by positive trade sentiments between the United States and China.

Trade estimates ahead of the weekly export sales report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) are between 900,000 and 1 million tonnes of soybeans, which is well-behind last week’s sales of over 2 million tonnes. However, traders are also expecting this week’s soybean meal export sales to be higher than last week, when soybean meal sales totaled about 364,000 tonnes.

The USDA will re-survey farmers in North Dakota and Minnesota to see how the snowstorm last weekend impacted corn and soybean crops. Any changes to harvested acres will be reported in the USDA’s crop production report on November 8.

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According to the most recent crop progress report, 16 per cent of soybeans in North Dakota have been harvested, along with 19 per cent of Minnesota’s soybean crop. That’s significantly behind the average harvest rate.

CORN futures were slightly stronger today, thanks to an increase in daily ethanol production last week. Approximately 970,000 barrels per day were produced during the week of Oct. 11. Ethanol stocks also rose to just over 22 million barrels.

Corn export sales are expected to be between 400,000 and 800,000 metric tonnes for this week.

WHEAT futures were stronger on Thursday, due to snow and inclement weather in key growing regions raising concerns of quality.

Estimates for wheat exports are between 250,000 and 500,000 tonnes for last week.

 

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York was up 55 cents at US$53.36 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US75.75 cents, down from 75.69 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.3201.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne.

Canola Nov 19 460.00s -1.40 -0.30%

Canola Jan 20 468.40s -1.80 -0.38%

Canola Mar 20 477.20s -1.80 -0.38%

Canola May 20 484.70s -1.80 -0.37%

Canola Jul 20 490.30s -1.70 -0.35%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.

 

Chicago

Soybean Nov 19 928-0s -6-0 -0.64%

Soybean Jan 20 942-2s -6-2 -0.66%

Soybean Mar 20 954-4s -4-6 -0.50%

Soybean May 20 963-2s -3-6 -0.39%

Soybean Jul 20 972-2s -4-0 -0.41%

 

Soybean Meal Dec 19 304.8s -3.0 -0.97%

Soybean Meal Jan 20 307.4s -3.0 -0.97%

Soybean Meal Mar 20 311.4s -2.7 -0.86%

 

Soybean Oil Dec 19 30.40s +0.01 +0.03%

Soybean Oil Jan 20 30.65s +0.02 +0.07%

Soybean Oil Mar 20 30.91s +0.03 +0.10%

 

Corn Dec 19 391-6s -1-4 -0.38%

Corn Mar 20 403-4s -0-6 -0.19%

Corn May 20 409-6s -0-6 -0.18%

Corn Jul 20 414-6s -0-4 -0.12%

Corn Sep 20 405-2s -1-0 -0.25%

 

Oats Dec 19 302-4s +6-0 +2.02%

Oats Mar 20 297-6s +3-4 +1.19%

Oats May 20 297-2s +2-0 +0.68%

Oats Jul 20 296-0s +1-4 +0.51%

Oats Sep 20 294-0s +1-2 +0.43%

 

Wheat Dec 19 513-2s +6-2 +1.23%

Wheat Mar 20 518-2s +5-0 +0.97%

Wheat May 20 523-0s +4-6 +0.92%

Wheat Jul 20 526-2s +4-0 +0.77%

Wheat Sep 20 532-4s +3-6 +0.71%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Dec 19 550-4s +5-0 +0.92%

Spring Wheat Mar 20 564-2s +4-6 +0.85%

Spring Wheat May 20 573-2s +4-2 +0.75%

Spring Wheat Jul 20 579-6s +2-6 +0.48%

Spring Wheat Sep 20 586-4s +2-0 +0.34%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Dec 19 425-0s +3-6 +0.89%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 20 437-6s +3-4 +0.81%

Hard Red Wheat May 20 446-6s +2-6 +0.62%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 20 455-4s +2-2 +0.50%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 20 465-4s +2-0 +0.43%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade

Live Cattle Oct 19 112.350s +1.350 +1.22%

Live Cattle Dec 19 113.875s +0.425 +0.37%

Live Cattle Feb 20 119.600s +0.050 +0.04%

 

Feeder Cattle Oct 19 145.225s +0.225 +0.16%

Feeder Cattle Nov 19 145.925s -0.150 -0.10%

Feeder Cattle Jan 20 142.375s +0.200 +0.14%

 

Lean Hogs Dec 19 70.625s -1.500 -2.08%

Lean Hogs Feb 20 78.850s -0.300 -0.38%

Lean Hogs Apr 20 84.875s -0.025 -0.03%

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