Canola finishes higher; wheat trends down

ICE Futures canola contracts ended higher on Thursday, after a choppy day that saw the market trade to both sides of unchanged.

Continued weakness in the Canadian dollar, which has lost about one cent relative to its United States counterpart over the past week, provided some support.

Uncertainty over the extent of the damage caused by recent frosts across parts of the Prairies added to the firmer tone, according to participants.

However, chart resistance tempered the upside, with the November contract holding below the psychological C$500 per tonne mark.

Statistics Canada pegged canola ending stocks, as of July 31, 2018, at 2.4 million tonnes in a report out this morning. While that was about a million tonnes above the previous year’s carryout, the stocks were still well within trade expectations and did little to move the market.

About 13,176 canola contracts traded, which compares with Wednesday when 10,589 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 7,674 of the contracts traded.

SOYMEAL futures settled with small gains on Thursday, with strength in soymeal providing some support. However, the underlying fundamentals remained bearish, tempering the upside.

Soybean harvest operations are underway across the United States, and early indications point to a big crop.

Private forecaster Informa Economics raised their U.S. soybean yield projection to 52.9 bushels per acre. That’s up by 1.3 bushels per acre from the current U.S. Department of Agriculture estimate.

Ongoing trade issues with China also weighed on prices, with additional tariffs a possibility.

CORN futures were steady to a bit firmer at the close, as early selling pressure subsided late in the day.

Informa estimated U.S. corn yields at 178.8 bushels per acre, which would be up by 0.4 bushels from the USDA’s current estimate.

The USDA releases its own updated production estimates next week Wednesday, Sep. 12.

WHEAT futures remained stuck in a downtrend on Thursday, as strength in the U.S. dollar index cut further into the global export interest in the country’s wheat.

Canadian wheat ending stocks of 6.2 million tonnes were down by about 10 per cent from last year, providing some support for the futures.

Drought concerns in Australia also provided some support.

 

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York was down 95 cents at US$67.77 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US75.83 cents, up from 75.84 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.3188.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne.

Canola Nov 18 498.30s +1.70 +0.34%

Canola Jan 19 504.80s +1.00 +0.20%

Canola Mar 19 509.80s +1.10 +0.22%

Canola May 19 513.30s +1.50 +0.29%

Canola Jul 19 515.80s +1.70 +0.33%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.

 

Chicago

Soybeans Sep 18 826-6s +1-2 +0.15%

Soybeans Nov 18 839-2s +1-2 +0.15%

Soybeans Jan 19 852-2s +1-4 +0.18%

Soybeans Mar 19 865-2s +1-6 +0.20%

Soybeans May 19 877-0s +2-0 +0.23%

 

Soybean Meal Sep 18 311.0s +4.8 +1.57%

Soybean Meal Oct 18 311.9s +4.6 +1.50%

Soybean Meal Dec 18 314.0s +4.3 +1.39%

 

Soybean Oil Sep 18 28.16s -0.02 -0.07%

Soybean Oil Oct 18 28.28s -0.03 -0.11%

Soybean Oil Dec 18 28.53s -0.03 -0.11%

 

Corn Sep 18 353-4s +1-6 +0.50%

Corn Dec 18 366-2s +1-0 +0.27%

Corn Mar 19 378-2s +1-0 +0.27%

Corn May 19 385-6s +1-0 +0.26%

Corn Jul 19 392-0s +1-2 +0.32%

 

Oats Sep 18 234-2s +0-4 +0.21%

Oats Dec 18 247-0s +0-4 +0.20%

Oats Mar 19 251-6s +0-4 +0.20%

Oats May 19 254-6s +0-4 +0.20%

Oats Jul 19 257-4s +0-2 +0.10%

 

Wheat Sep 18 486-0s -7-6 -1.57%

Wheat Dec 18 513-6s -8-0 -1.53%

Wheat Mar 19 535-0s -7-4 -1.38%

Wheat May 19 549-0s -7-4 -1.35%

Wheat Jul 19 547-2s -6-0 -1.08%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Sep 18 555-6s -8-2 -1.46%

Spring Wheat Dec 18 571-6s -8-4 -1.46%

Spring Wheat Mar 19 587-4s -8-4 -1.43%

Spring Wheat May 19 596-6s -7-0 -1.16%

Spring Wheat Jul 19 604-4s -6-0 -0.98%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Sep 18 490-4s -11-2 -2.24%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 18 516-6s -11-2 -2.13%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 19 539-0s -10-6 -1.96%

Hard Red Wheat May 19 552-2s -10-0 -1.78%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 19 552-0s -8-4 -1.52%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade

Live Cattle Oct 18 108.900s -0.150 -0.14%

Live Cattle Dec 18 113.725s -0.025 -0.02%

Live Cattle Feb 19 117.625s +0.050 +0.04%

 

Feeder Cattle Sep 18 151.775s +0.050 +0.03%

Feeder Cattle Oct 18 151.525s +0.050 +0.03%

Feeder Cattle Nov 18 151.425s -0.150 -0.10%

 

Lean Hogs Oct 18 54.975s +3.000 +5.77%

Lean Hogs Dec 18 56.675s +1.500 +2.72%

Lean Hogs Feb 19 64.850s +0.675 +1.05%

 

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By Phil Franz-Warkentin Commodity News Service Canada's recent articles

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