Canola down after Baghdad drone attack affects markets

WINNIPEG, (MarketsFarm) – Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Futures canola contracts finished lower Friday, due to weaker values in the Chicago soy complex.

That in turn was due to the drone attack by the United States that killed a top Iranian general in Baghdad on Friday. The attack quickly increased tensions in the Middle East, which negatively impacted global markets.

With canola usually lagging far behind in gains for Chicago soyoil, the impact was not as severe, commented a trader.

By mid-afternoon Friday, the Canadian dollar was steady at 76.95 U.S. cents.

There were 20,607 contracts traded on Friday, which compares with Thursday when 18,320 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 12,686 contracts traded.

Settlement prices are in Canadian dollars per metric tonne.

Price Change
Canola Mar 478.30 dn 1.70
May 487.30 dn 1.80
Jul 493.00 dn 1.80
Nov 496.20 dn 1.80

SOYBEAN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) were weaker on Friday, primarily due to a United States drone attack that killed a top Iranian general.

In the latest tit-for-tat in the Middle East, U.S. President Donald Trump ordered a drone attack over the Baghdad International Airport, assassinating General Qassem Soleimani. Trump accused Soleimani of being behind this week’s attack on the U.S. embassy in Baghdad by pro-Iranian demonstrators. That protest came as a result of earlier U.S. drone attacks that killed pro-Iranian Iraqi militia leaders. The U.S. claimed they were responsible attacks on U.S. civilian and military installations in Iraq and Syria.

In the weekly export sales report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), for the weekend Dec. 26, soybean sales came in at 330,300 tonnes – a low for the 2019/20 marketing year. Soymeal export sales were at 94,700 tonnes, while soyoil incurred a net reduction of 1,900 tonnes.

The USDA issued a report on Friday in which it stated that Brazil will likely pass the U.S. as the world’s top producer of soybeans. The Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report for Jan. 3 said the USDA expects Brazil to produce 123.5 million tonnes of soybeans, with dry conditions having little effect on the coming harvest. The report also pegged Brazil’s soybean exports to hit 75 million tonnes, for an increase of 2 million over last year. Also, Brazil will process 44 million tonnes of soybeans.

Today’s GAIN report also said crude palm oil production in Malaysia was forecast to drop by 200,000 tonnes to now 20.6 million. The report said prolonged dry conditions hurt the country’s production. Malaysia’s palm oil exports are expected to reach 18.2 million tonnes.

CORN futures were lower on Friday, following the drop in values.

The USDA’s export sales report said 531,400 tonnes of corn were sold last week, a decline of 15 per cent from the previous week.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported ethanol production was slightly lower for the week ended Dec. 27, with 1.06 million barrels per day, a drop of 1.6 per cent. However, that’s 5.4 per cent more than the same time last year. Stockpiles dropped by 435,000 barrels to now 21.03 million.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) reported that 83.5 per cent of Argentina’s corn crop has been planted. Argentine farmers are expected to seed close to 15.6 million acres this year.

WHEAT futures were weaker on Friday, due pessimism in the markets.

The USDA reported wheat export sales of 312,900 tonnes, which was a drop of 56 per cent from the previous week.

The BAGE reported that 92 per cent of Argentina’s wheat crop has been harvested.

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up xx cents at US$63.05 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US76.99 cents. The U.S. dollar was C$1.2988.

Name / Contract High Low Last Change Settlement
Canola Jan 2020 471.90 471.50 471.50 4.00 471.50
Canola Mar 2020 482.20 477.20 477.90 -2.10 477.90
Canola May 2020 491.10 486.10 486.60 -2.50 486.60
Canola Jul 2020 496.70 491.90 492.70 -2.10 492.70
Canola Nov 2020 499.50 494.50 496.00 -2.00 496.00
Soybean Jan 2020 945.25 926.75 930.50 -13.75 930.75
Soybean Mar 2020 957.00 937.50 941.50 -14.75 942.25
Soybean May 2020 970.00 951.25 955.25 -14.25 956.25
Soybean Jul 2020 981.50 963.25 967.75 -13.25 968.50
Soybean Aug 2020 984.75 967.25 971.75 -12.75 972.00
Soybean Sep 2020 980.00 964.50 969.50 -10.50 969.50
Soybean Meal Jan 2020 300.70 295.40 296.10 -4.50 296.00
Soybean Meal Mar 2020 306.30 300.30 301.20 -4.40 301.40
Soybean Meal May 2020 309.90 304.20 305.20 -4.10 305.10
Soybean Oil Jan 2020 35.12 34.50 34.81 -0.16 34.78
Soybean Oil Mar 2020 35.40 34.75 35.08 -0.16 35.11
Soybean Oil May 2020 35.67 35.05 35.37 -0.15 35.40
Corn Mar 2020 392.00 385.50 386.50 -5.00 387.25
Corn May 2020 398.25 392.25 393.00 -5.00 393.75
Corn Jul 2020 404.00 398.50 399.25 -4.75 399.75
Corn Sep 2020 402.50 397.75 398.25 -4.75 398.75
Corn Dec 2020 404.25 400.00 400.75 -3.75 401.25
Oats Mar 2020 301.25 288.00 290.75 -7.25 289.50
Oats May 2020 297.25 286.25 288.00 -6.75 286.25
Oats Jul 2020 292.00 283.25 283.25 -5.25 288.50
Oats Sep 2020 275.00 275.00 275.00 -5.25 280.25
Oats Dec 2020 275.00 267.00 267.00 -4.75 275.00
Wheat Mar 2020 562.00 551.75 554.50 -5.75 554.25
Wheat May 2020 564.75 554.75 557.75 -5.50 557.25
Wheat Jul 2020 566.75 557.50 560.50 -4.50 560.25
Wheat Sep 2020 573.00 564.00 567.25 -3.75 566.75
Wheat Dec 2020 582.25 573.50 576.50 -3.75 576.25
Spring Wheat Mar 2020 560.00 546.00 548.50 -9.75 548.50
Spring Wheat May 2020 569.75 556.00 558.00 -10.25 558.00
Spring Wheat Jul 2020 576.75 564.50 565.00 -10.25 565.00
Spring Wheat Sep 2020 580.25 572.50 573.75 -9.00 573.75
Spring Wheat Dec 2020 594.50 584.00 586.00 -8.25 586.00
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2020 486.00 473.00 475.00 -10.25 475.00
Hard Red Wheat May 2020 494.25 481.50 482.75 -11.00 483.00
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2020 501.75 488.75 490.25 -11.00 489.75
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2020 508.75 496.25 498.00 -10.75 497.50
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2020 518.75 507.00 508.75 -10.25 508.00
Live Cattle (Pit) Feb 2020 124.73 124.73 124.73 -1.05 124.73
Live Cattle (Pit) Apr 2020 125.68 125.68 125.68 -0.80 125.68
Live Cattle (Pit) Jun 2020 117.68 117.68 117.68 -1.03 117.68
Feeder Cattle (Pit) Jan 2020 143.35 143.35 143.35 -1.30 143.35
Feeder Cattle (Pit) Mar 2020 142.68 142.68 142.68 -1.05 142.68
Feeder Cattle (Pit) Apr 2020 145.53 145.53 145.53 -0.97 145.53
Lean Hogs (Pit) Feb 2020 68.55 68.55 68.55 -3.00 68.55
Lean Hogs (Pit) Apr 2020 75.15 75.15 75.15 -2.85 75.15
Lean Hogs (Pit) May 2020 81.40 81.40 81.40 -2.98 81.40

 

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