Canola dips Thursday but wheat rises as Kansas wheat estimate is down 18 percent

Canola futures fell Thursday on fund selling, weakness in soy oil and a forecast for mostly warm and dry weather for the next several days.

At one point May canola was down more than $16.50 but it rallied toward the close and ended down only $3.90 at $633.20. Most of the trading is occurring in the July contract. It closed down $3.60 at $600.20.

New crop November fell $3 to $538.70.

Statistics Canada releases its March 31 grain stocks report on Friday.

Last year on March 31 there were 5.2 million tonnes of canola stocks. In 2011 stocks were 9.874 million, in 2010 6.967 million and in 2009 6.404 million

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U.S. livestock: Cattle slip back, hogs gain

Chicago cattle futures slipped back on Friday after Thursday’s pause. Hog futures crept upward. Most-active December live cattle futures closed…

Nearby oats jumped 26 cents or 6.6 percent but the December contract finished down only two cents lower, or 0.55 percent.

Snow and rain across a large part of the U.S. Plains and Midwest today delaying seeding. Warm weather is again returning to the Canadian prairies. Temperature highs in the 20s the next couple of days should start to free more fields from their blankets of snow but also create more flooding woes.

• Concerns about the state of the hard red winter wheat crop after drought and freezing weather lifted wheat futures. However, the Wheat Quality Council three-day tour of Kansas wound up with a state average yield forecast of 41.1 bushels per acres, down only 0.9 bu. from last year’s 42 bu/ac. The five-year average is 42.3 bu./ac

Reuters reports the tour pegged state production at 313.1 million bu., down 18 percent from actual 382.2 million bu. last year. That assumes 18 percent abandonment, up from the 20-year average of 9-10 percent. (an earlier version of this story had an incorrect production forecast)

The tour found poor crops in southern and western Kansas and better fields in central and eastern areas.

A similar tour of Oklahoma, the second largest hard red winter wheat state, found that production could be down 45 percent from last year, to 85.5 million bu. from 154.8 million a year earlier.

• Corn rose on a turn to wetter conditions in weather forecasts for the Midwest. Another round of moisture next week will again interfere with planting progress.

Corn export sales also supported prices. The U.S. Department of Agriculture said U.S. corn sales last week totaled 985,000 tonnes, the largest since August.

AgriMoney.com noted that some analysts are starting to trim their outlook for corn seeded area because of the weather delays.

Most soybean contracts closed a little lower, weighed down by thoughts that soybean acres might increase if cold wet weather delays corn seeding too much. Also there were lingering concerns that South American soybeans might be imported into the U.S. After the close, Reuters reported that there are no Argentine soybeans bound for the U.S.

Slow economic growth in China also weighs on soybeans.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola May 2013 633.20 -3.90 -0.61%

Canola Jul 2013 600.20 -3.60 -0.60%

Canola Nov 2013 538.70 -3.00 -0.55%

Canola Jan 2014 540.10 -1.60 -0.30%

Canola Mar 2014 536.40 +0.40 +0.07%

Milling Wheat May 2013 292.00 unch 0.00%

Milling Wheat Jul 2013 294.00 unch 0.00%

Milling Wheat Oct 2013 294.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat May 2013 301.90 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Jul 2013 301.90 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Oct 2013 294.90 unch 0.00%

Barley May 2013 243.50 unch 0.00%

Barley Jul 2013 244.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Oct 2013 194.00 unch 0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans May 2013 1441 +3.5 +0.24%

Soybeans Jul 2013 1372.25 -0.75 -0.05%

Soybeans Aug 2013 1318.25 -1 -0.08%

Soybeans Sep 2013 1247.5 -2.5 -0.20%

Soybeans Nov 2013 1204 -5.25 -0.43%

Soybeans Jan 2014 1211.75 -5.25 -0.43%

Soybean Meal May 2013 418.6 +3 +0.72%

Soybean Meal Jul 2013 406.2 +1.8 +0.45%

Soybean Meal Aug 2013 383.5 +0.9 +0.24%

Soybean Oil May 2013 48.42 -0.22 -0.45%

Soybean Oil Jul 2013 48.49 -0.36 -0.74%

Soybean Oil Aug 2013 48.31 -0.33 -0.68%

Corn May 2013 697.5 +15.75 +2.31%

Corn Jul 2013 662 +15.25 +2.36%

Corn Sep 2013 583.75 +10.75 +1.88%

Corn Dec 2013 559 +8.5 +1.54%

Corn Mar 2014 569 +8 +1.43%

Oats May 2013 416.25 +26 +6.66%

Oats Jul 2013 386.25 +6 +1.58%

Oats Sep 2013 367.75 -2.25 -0.61%

Oats Dec 2013 360.75 -2 -0.55%

Oats Mar 2014 365.5 -2.25 -0.61%

Wheat May 2013 718.75 +8.25 +1.16%

Wheat Jul 2013 728.5 +7.5 +1.04%

Wheat Sep 2013 738 +7.5 +1.03%

Wheat Dec 2013 752.25 +7.25 +0.97%

Wheat Mar 2014 765.5 +7.25 +0.96%

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat May 2013 844.75 +14.75 +1.78%

Spring Wheat Jul 2013 825.25 +9.5 +1.16%

Spring Wheat Sep 2013 827.5 +8.5 +1.04%

Spring Wheat Dec 2013 837 +9.5 +1.15%

Spring Wheat Mar 2014 849.75 +5.25 +0.62%

Kansas City

KCBT Red Wheat May 2013 802.25 +8 +1.01%

KCBT Red Wheat Jul 2013 790.75 +8.5 +1.09%

KCBT Red Wheat Sep 2013 800.5 +9.25 +1.17%

KCBT Red Wheat Dec 2013 814.75 +9.5 +1.18%

KCBT Red Wheat Mar 2014 825.25 +10 +1.23%

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose $2.96 at $93.99 US per barrel.

The Canadian dollar at noon was 99.18 cents US, almost unchanged from 99.17 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0083 Cdn.

The number of Americans filing new jobless benefits claims fell sharply last week, supporting stock markets and crude oil.

In early unofficial tallies —

The Toronto Stock Exchange composite closed at 12,379.64, up 58.35 points, or 0.47 percent.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 129.59 points, or 0.88 percent, at 14,830.54.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was up 15.68 points, or 0.99 percent, at 1,598.38.

The Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 44.50 points, or 1.35 percent, at 3,343.63.

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