Canola dips on large global soybean stocks in USDA report

USDA Global Soybean Stocks

Canola futures fell on Wednesday, pressured by weakness in U.S. soybeans after a U.S. government report estimated rising global soy inventories.

The stronger Canadian dollar also weighed on canola.

The trade was also starting to wind down the wide spread between old and new canola prices.

U.S. December corn futures rose 1.7 percent on after the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s forecast for global inventories at the end of the 2017-18 marketing year fell below trade expectations.

Soybean futures initially rose, buoyed by the USDA’s forecast for a smaller-than-expected rise in American ending stocks for 2017-18.

But the market later turned down as traders shifted their attention to rising global inventories.

Corn futures advanced after the USDA’s first official supply and demand forecasts for the 2017-18 marketing year pegged world corn ending stocks at 195.27 million tonnes.

The figure was down from 223.90 million expected at the end of 2016-17 and below an average of analyst estimates for 209.72 million.

“The corn is the winner coming out of this, on new-crop ending stocks in the world,” said Don Roose, president of Iowa-based U.S. Commodities.

The USDA’s forecasts of domestic corn ending stocks for both 2016-17 and 2017-18 also came in below the average trade expectations.

The USDA projected U.S. 2017-18 soy ending stocks at 480 million bushels, well below the average pre-report trade estimate of 563 million.

But on the global front, the USDA raised its forecast of 2016-17 soy ending stocks to 90.1 million tonnes, topping a range of trade estimates.

“The world supplies on beans bumped up to 90.1 million tonnes, 2.5 million over what it was a month ago. I think put the kibosh on the beans a little bit,” said Mark Gold, analyst with Top Third Ag Marketing.

Wheat futures were modestly higher but trade was choppy.

The USDA forecast global wheat ending stocks in 2017-18 at 258.29 million tonnes, above a range of trade expectations.

But the government’s initial estimate of U.S. winter wheat production, at 1.246 billion bu., fell below the average trade estimate of 1.293 billion.

The USDA’s forecasts of domestic wheat ending stocks were roughly in line with trade expectations.

OUTSIDE MARKETS

In the afternoon the Canadian dollar was trading around US73.147 cents, up from 72.87 cents on Tuesday. One U.S. dollar equals C$1.367.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York soared $1.45 to US$47.33 per barrel. Oil rallied after a weekly report showed U.S. crude oil inventories fell more than expected and U.S. gasoline demand rebounding.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed up 64.01 points, or 0.41 percent, at 15,633.21.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.16 percent to end at 20,943.11 while the S&P 500 gained 0.11 percent to 2,399.63.

The Nasdaq Composite added 0.14 percent to reach a record high close 6,129.14.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Jul 2017 519.90 -7.70 -1.46%
Canola Nov 2017 504.10 -3.80 -0.75%
Canola Jan 2018 508.70 -4.10 -0.80%
Canola Mar 2018 513.00 -4.50 -0.87%
Canola May 2018 515.00 -4.30 -0.83%

Milling Wheat Jul 2017 239.00 +2.00 +0.84%
Milling Wheat Oct 2017 240.00 +1.00 +0.42%
Milling Wheat Dec 2017 244.00 +2.00 +0.83%

Durum Wheat Jul 2017 273.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Oct 2017 267.00 unch 0.00%
Durum Wheat Dec 2017 267.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Jul 2017 138.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Oct 2017 140.00 unch 0.00%
Barley Dec 2017 140.00 unch 0.00%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound
Chicago
Soybeans May 2017 961.75 -3.50 -0.36%
Soybeans Jul 2017 970.25 -3.75 -0.39%
Soybeans Aug 2017 971.25 -3.50 -0.36%
Soybeans Sep 2017 968.25 -2.00 -0.21%
Soybeans Nov 2017 966.75 -0.75 -0.08%
Soybeans Jan 2018 973.75 -0.75 -0.08%

Soybean Meal May 2017 313.80 -0.40 -0.13%
Soybean Meal Jul 2017 317.70 -0.80 -0.25%
Soybean Meal Aug 2017 318.40 -0.50 -0.16%

Soybean Oil May 2017 32.07 unch 0.00%
Soybean Oil Jul 2017 32.28 -0.61 -1.85%
Soybean Oil Aug 2017 32.38 -0.59 -1.79%

Corn May 2017 365.25 +7.00 +1.95%
Corn Jul 2017 373.75 +7.25 +1.98%
Corn Sep 2017 381.75 +7.25 +1.94%
Corn Dec 2017 391.50 +6.50 +1.69%
Corn Mar 2018 400.75 +6.25 +1.58%

Oats May 2017 248.50 unch 0.00%
Oats Jul 2017 244.25 -1.50 -0.61%
Oats Sep 2017 229.00 +1.00 +0.44%
Oats Dec 2017 224.50 +1.25 +0.56%
Oats Mar 2018 227.50 unch 0.00%

Wheat May 2017 424.00 +2.25 +0.53%
Wheat Jul 2017 431.75 +2.25 +0.52%
Wheat Sep 2017 446.75 +2.25 +0.51%
Wheat Dec 2017 467.00 +2.50 +0.54%
Wheat Mar 2018 485.25 +3.00 +0.62%

Minneapolis
Spring Wheat May 2017 534.00 +5.50 +1.04%
Spring Wheat Jul 2017 545.00 +4.00 +0.74%
Spring Wheat Sep 2017 552.00 +3.50 +0.64%
Spring Wheat Dec 2017 560.75 +3.50 +0.63%
Spring Wheat Mar 2018 570.00 +3.50 +0.62%

Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat May 2017 427.75 unch 0.00%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2017 439.25 +0.50 +0.11%
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2017 456.50 +0.25 +0.05%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2017 479.50 -0.75 -0.16%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2018 493.50 -1.25 -0.25%

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound (rounded to two decimal places)
Live Cattle (P) Jun 2017 124.20 -0.77 -0.62%
Live Cattle (P) Aug 2017 120.40 -0.25 -0.21%
Live Cattle (P) Oct 2017 116.48 +0.11 +0.09%

Feeder Cattle (P) May 2017 144.50 -0.03 -0.02%
Feeder Cattle (P) Aug 2017 148.92 -3.23 -2.12%
Feeder Cattle (P) Sep 2017 148.97 -2.48 -1.64%

Lean Hogs (P) May 2017 71.05 +0.75 +1.07%
Lean Hogs (P) Jun 2017 77.20 -0.17 -0.22%
Lean Hogs (P) Jul 2017 77.28 -0.22 -0.28%

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