Weather concerns boost canola; corn rally spills over into wheat

Winnipeg, (MarketsFarm) – The ICE Futures canola market was stronger on Tuesday as ongoing Prairie weather concerns provided support.

A large portion of central and southern Saskatchewan continues to miss out on any significant shower activity, leading to uncertainty over the size of this year’s canola crop.

However, the large old crop carryout and ongoing diplomatic dispute with China tempered the upside potential, as end users still see little reason to bid up the market.

The United States Department of Agriculture released its latest production estimates during the trading session. A sharp reduction in projected corn production gave that market a boost, which spilled into the other grains and oilseeds.

About 29,385 canola contracts traded on Tuesday, which compares with Monday when 39,939 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 23,644 of the contracts trade.

CORN futures at the Chicago Board of Trade posted large gains on Tuesday, as the market reacted to a sharp drop in the production estimate from the United States Department of Agriculture.

While the government agency raised its old crop carryout forecast slightly, to 2.195 billion bushels, it slashed new crop production by 1.35 billion from an earlier estimate and pegged the country’s 2019 corn crop at 13.68 billion bushels. The reduction was due to a combination of lower projected yields and lost acres.

In a separate weekly report, the U.S. corn crop was 83 percent planted as of this past Sunday. That was in line with estimates, but well behind the 99 percent average for this time of year.

SOYBEANS followed corn higher. The latest USDA numbers were relatively neutral for soybeans, with only minor adjustments to the supply/demand balance sheets.

Projected exports were revised slightly lower, while forecasted U.S. soybean production for 2019/20 was left unchanged at 4.15 billion bushels.

The U.S. soybean crop was 60 percent seeded as of this past Sunday, which remains well behind normal.

WHEAT was higher, with the largest gains in the winter wheats as the market found some spillover strength from the rally in corn.

The U.S. winter wheat crop was four per cent harvested as of this past Sunday, which compares with the 10 per cent average for this time of year.

Weekly condition ratings were left unchanged at 64 percent good to excellent for winter wheat. Spring wheat in the country was down two points in the good-to-excellent category, at 81 per cent.

 

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York was up one cent at US$53.27 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US75.31 cents, down from 75.37 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.3278.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne.

Canola Jul 19 455.50s +1.10 +0.24%

Canola Nov 19 465.60s +1.40 +0.30%

Canola Jan 20 471.10s +1.50 +0.32%

Canola Mar 20 476.60s +1.90 +0.40%

Canola May 20 481.60s +2.30 +0.48%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.

 

Chicago

Soybean Jul 19 859-2s +0-6 +0.09%

Soybean Aug 19 866-2s +1-0 +0.12%

Soybean Sep 19 873-2s +1-0 +0.11%

Soybean Nov 19 887-0s +1-2 +0.14%

Soybean Jan 20 900-2s +1-2 +0.14%

 

Soybean Meal Jul 19 314.4s +1.0 +0.32%

Soybean Meal Aug 19 315.6s +0.9 +0.29%

Soybean Meal Sep 19 317.3s +0.8 +0.25%

 

Soybean Oil Jul 19 27.22s -0.16 -0.58%

Soybean Oil Aug 19 27.35s -0.16 -0.58%

Soybean Oil Sep 19 27.47s -0.16 -0.58%

 

Corn Jul 19 427-6s +12-0 +2.89%

Corn Sep 19 436-2s +12-2 +2.89%

Corn Dec 19 447-0s +12-4 +2.88%

Corn Mar 20 455-4s +12-0 +2.71%

Corn May 20 458-4s +10-6 +2.40%

 

Oats Jul 19 303-6s +8-6 +2.97%

Oats Sep 19 295-4s +7-2 +2.52%

Oats Dec 19 291-6s +8-0 +2.82%

Oats Mar 20 294-6s +8-4 +2.97%

Oats May 20 292-2s +7-0 +2.45%

 

Wheat Jul 19 518-0s +10-4 +2.07%

Wheat Sep 19 521-2s +9-4 +1.86%

Wheat Dec 19 532-0s +7-4 +1.43%

Wheat Mar 20 542-0s +5-4 +1.03%

Wheat May 20 546-6s +4-2 +0.78%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Jul 19 569-4s +1-0 +0.18%

Spring Wheat Sep 19 578-0s +0-4 +0.09%

Spring Wheat Dec 19 587-6s +0-2 +0.04%

Spring Wheat Mar 20 599-0s +0-4 +0.08%

Spring Wheat May 20 606-0s +1-0 +0.17%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Jul 19 457-4s +4-4 +0.99%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 19 470-2s +4-2 +0.91%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 19 493-2s +4-0 +0.82%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 20 515-0s +3-4 +0.68%

Hard Red Wheat May 20 529-2s +3-0 +0.57%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade

Live Cattle Jun 19 110.675s +0.975 +0.89%

Live Cattle Aug 19 106.825s +0.525 +0.49%

Live Cattle Oct 19 107.850s +0.700 +0.65%

 

Feeder Cattle Aug 19 138.125s -1.700 -1.22%

Feeder Cattle Sep 19 138.600s -1.125 -0.81%

Feeder Cattle Oct 19 138.975s -0.775 -0.55%

 

Lean Hogs Jun 19 79.075s -0.200 -0.25%

Lean Hogs Jul 19 84.375s -1.825 -2.12%

Lean Hogs Aug 19 82.975s -1.875 -2.21%

 

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