Canola strengthens; wheat closes lower

ICE Futures canola contracts strengthened on Thursday, as the market recovered off of major chart support.

Speculators covering short positions and end users taking advantage of bargain prices accounted for some of the buying interest in canola, according to participants.

A slowdown in seasonal hedge pressure and gains in Chicago Board of Trade soyoil were also supportive.

However, CBOT soybeans were lower on the day, which put some pressure on canola. Strength in the Canadian dollar also tempered the upside.

About 11,997 canola contracts traded, which compares with Tuesday when 14,095 contracts changed hands. Spreading accounted for 7,092 of the contracts traded.

SOYBEAN futures were weaker on Wednesday, as reports of another African swine fever case in China weighed on prices. The possibility of a reduction in the country’s hog herd would cut into world demand for soymeal.

The United States Department of Agriculture releases its monthly supply/demand reports on Thursday, and positioning ahead of the data was a feature.

Average pre-report guesses are predicting a downward revision to this year’s U.S. soybean production, but ending stocks should still be revised higher due to expectations for reduced exports.

CORN futures were lower on the day. A report out of China’s CNGOIC raised production estimates over the past few years, with 2018 Chinese corn production now pegged at 259 million tonnes. That’s up by about 20 per cent from an earlier estimate.

The latest U.S. ethanol report showed production in the last week at 1.068 million barrels per day, which was up by 9,000 from the previous week. Stocks of the renewable fuel rose to 23.15 million barrels.

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WHEAT futures were lower at the close, after trading to both sides of unchanged. Conflicting export numbers out of Russia led to some confusion, although total wheat exports out of the country are still generally expected to be large.

Tomorrow’s USDA report is expected to show a slight downward revision in world wheat stocks, which could provide some support.

 

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down 57 cents at US$61.64 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US76.23 cents, down from 0.07 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.3118

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne.

Name / Contract Last Change % Change

Canola Nov 18 475.90s +1.30 +0.27%

Canola Jan 19 483.00s +1.30 +0.27%

Canola Mar 19 490.70s +1.30 +0.27%

Canola May 19 498.10s +1.20 +0.24%

Canola Jul 19 502.70s +1.90 +0.38%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.

 

Chiciago

Soybeans Nov 18 867-6s -4-2 -0.49%

Soybeans Jan 19 879-4s -4-6 -0.54%

Soybeans Mar 19 892-2s -4-2 -0.47%

Soybeans May 19 905-4s -4-2 -0.47%

Soybeans Jul 19 918-4s -3-4 -0.38%

 

Soybean Meal Dec 18 308.0s -3.4 -1.09%

Soybean Meal Jan 19 309.7s -3.1 -0.99%

Soybean Meal Mar 19 312.0s -2.0 -0.64%

 

Soybean Oil Dec 18 28.20s +0.30 +1.08%

Soybean Oil Jan 19 28.40s +0.29 +1.03%

Soybean Oil Mar 19 28.69s +0.30 +1.06%

 

Corn Dec 18 372-2s -1-0 -0.27%

Corn Mar 19 383-6s -1-4 -0.39%

Corn May 19 391-4s -1-4 -0.38%

Corn Jul 19 397-4s -1-2 -0.31%

Corn Sep 19 397-6s -1-2 -0.31%

Oats Dec 18 287-2s -6-4 -2.21%

Oats Mar 19 279-2s -5-2 -1.85%

Oats May 19 279-0s -5-0 -1.76%

Oats Jul 19 279-2s -5-6 -2.02%

Oats Sep 19 275-4s -4-6 -1.69%

 

Wheat Dec 18 510-2s -1-6 -0.34%

Wheat Mar 19 522-4s -4-6 -0.90%

Wheat May 19 533-0s -5-2 -0.98%

Wheat Jul 19 541-6s -4-4 -0.82%

Wheat Sep 19 553-0s -3-4 -0.63%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Dec 18 580-6s -7-6 -1.32%

Spring Wheat Mar 19 585-2s -7-2 -1.22%

Spring Wheat May 19 593-0s -6-4 -1.08%

Spring Wheat Jul 19 599-4s -6-4 -1.07%

Spring Wheat Sep 19 607-0s -5-6 -0.94%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Dec 18 502-2s -5-6 -1.13%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 19 523-6s -7-4 -1.41%

Hard Red Wheat May 19 536-4s -7-6 -1.42%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 19 545-2s -7-0 -1.27%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 19 560-0s -6-2 -1.10%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade

Live Cattle   Dec 18 116.100s +0.675 +0.58%

Live Cattle   Feb 19 119.600s -0.800 -0.66%

Live Cattle   Apr 19 121.325s -0.600 -0.49%

 

Feeder Cattle   Nov 18 149.925s -0.050 -0.03%

Feeder Cattle   Jan 19 145.825s -0.775 -0.53%

Feeder Cattle   Mar 19 144.175s -1.225 -0.84%

 

Lean Hogs   Dec 18 55.525s +1.425 +2.63%

Lean Hogs   Feb 19 61.225s -0.175 -0.29%

Lean Hogs   Apr 19 67.425s +0.125 +0.19

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By Phil Franz-Warkentin Commodity News Service Canada's recent articles

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