Soil moisture conditions are improving across much of Canada and the United States cropping regions, thanks to recent rain, but the market last week was focused on excess rain in southern Brazil. Canadian farmers on the Prairies are eager to get seeding, but they also appreciate the moisture from recent systems that is helping to […] Read more
D'Arce McMillan
Stories by D'Arce McMillan
Weather, war lift wheat price, but can rally be sustained?
Wheat futures enjoyed a bump higher last week, a sign that the market is keeping an eye on Northern Hemisphere weather issues. Wheat values are still the lowest since the spring of 2021, but perhaps the steady price slide is coming to an end. Market reports suggested the drivers of the rally were the Russian […] Read more
U.S. dollar rises as interest rate cut timing pushed back
The American dollar has gained ground on most of the world’s other currencies, a situation that hurts its ability to export crops, which in turn puts downward pressure on crop futures prices. It is a two-edged sword for Canadian crop exporters. It could give Canadian exports a competitive advantage, but it also drives up the […] Read more
Renewable natural gas a new market for damaged grain
Renewable natural gas is among the newest low- or no-carbon fuels made from agricultural products that are generating attention from power utilities, investors and governments. Actually, capturing and using methane, or biogas, produced from anaerobic digestion in livestock manure ponds has been around for a long time in Europe and developing countries In the early […] Read more
Crop market keeps watchful eye on spring weather
In the first half of March, a modest rally in the grain futures lifted prices off what appears to have been the seasonal low, but traders seem reluctant to drive prices significantly higher. A month ago I wrote about the search for a trigger that would spark a short-covering rally. It seems that the big […] Read more
EV adoption may force ethanol makers to find new uses
Ethanol is a critical slice of the demand pie for corn, so American corn growers and ethanol producers are keen to ensure there is good demand for the fuel into the future, even if a large percentage of road vehicles eventually run on electricity from batteries. So, in addition to the usual lobbying of government […] Read more
Crude oil could hit the $80s, but little risk of price spikes
As crude oil climbs back above $80 per barrel, we see very different global demand outlooks that will affect fuel prices during the growing season. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its associates, known as OPEC+, see strong demand growth that would push prices higher, but other forecasters are more reserved. The West Texas […] Read more
Weight loss drug craze could impact food manufacturers
There is a weird juxtaposition in society today as a deep concern over food affordability and accessibility coincides with enormous interest in new types of weight loss drugs. You might not have heard of semaglutide, but that is the active ingredient in the brand name drug Ozempic, which is hard to not know about if […] Read more
Trigger for short covering market rally remains elusive
For months, crop traders positioned themselves to profit from falling prices and now face risk if something happens to cause prices to rise. In market talk, the trade is net short and from a technical standpoint they are in oversold territory. It is a scenario that could trigger a sudden move higher if Mother Nature […] Read more
U.S.-China trade war may resume if Trump wins election
As we look toward 2024-25 markets, it would be helpful to have a crystal ball to see into the future and learn who will win the American presidential election in November. As it stands, the race is tight and the prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House is possible. In the world of […] Read more
