OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE

Grain markets are in the green to start this morning. ICE canola futures are trading mostly $2 to $4/tonne higher this morning…bouncing with world vegoils and energy markets.

CBOT corn futures are up 2 cents/bu this morning. Corn futures dropped yesterday news of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran.

Chicago soybean futures are posting morning gains of 4 to 5 cents, with both soymeal and bean oil slightly higher. Soybean prices, dragged down on Wednesday by weakness in soyoil and a crashing crude oil market due to the ceasefire, still managed to move higher yesterday.

US wheat markets are also higher after yesterday s draw down…Minnie spring wheat futures are gaining 6 to 8 cents, HRW up 9 cents and SRW wheat 3 to 8 cents higher.

Traders await today s monthly USDA supply/demand report (11 am CT release). The agency is expected to show only small changes in its estimates of US corn, soybean and wheat carryout for the current marketing year from their March report. However, US corn stocks are still expected to be significantly higher than a year ago. US wheat and soybean stocks are seen modestly above levels seen at the same time last year.

Meantime, traders expect the agency to estimate Brazil and Argentina corn and soybean production levels to be very close to what it estimated in the March report.

Macro Thoughts

Global cereal production remained near record levels in this past year, and stocks-to-use ratios have held relatively steady. Supply conditions are not as tight as during the last major disruption (2020-22), and recent price volatility has tended to reflect short-term reactions to external developments rather than a broad shift in ag supply/demand balances.

Even so, markets are not immune to outside influences. Wheat prices in recent weeks have reacted to drought across parts of the western US Plains and ongoing uncertainty surrounding Black Sea exports. Energy markets have also re-emerged as a factor, with higher crude values lifting fuel, freight and input costs…even accounting for yesterday s sell-off.

That influence is showing up more directly in day-to-day trade. Higher fuel costs have made forward pricing in grain markets more difficult, particularly on longer-haul business. In some cases, sellers are absorbing those increases on existing contracts and adjusting pricing on new business. Market participants are building in a wider range of outcomes when quoting freight-dependent business.

Trade policy is also a persistent, if less visible, part of that backdrop. Tariffs introduced over the past year continue to work through the system, contributing to a more cautious approach to forward business.

As a result, buyers across grain markets have tended to secure coverage in smaller increments, with activity tied more closely to short-term price movement. So far, geopolitical influences have been sharp but relatively short-lived, reinforcing the view that current price volatility is more episodic than structural.

Today s grain market differs from 2022 in one key respect: Volatility is not being driven by widespread supply shortages. Instead, price movement appears to be shaped by stable production levels and increased sensitivity to energy markets, trade policy and conflict in the Middle East. Interest rates are also holding at more neutral levels, limiting the kind of broad-based stress seen during the early 2020s.

While price volatility has returned, past cycles suggest these periods of disruption are often short-lived and not always indicative of a broader shift in fundamentals.

Meanwhile, the World Bank, International Monetary Fund and the UN World Food Program warned on Wednesday that sharp increases in oil, natural gas and fertilizer prices triggered by the war in the Middle East will inevitably cause rising food prices and food insecurity. In a joint statement issued after a meeting on the war, the leaders of the global institutions said the burden would fall most heavily on the world s most vulnerable populations, particularly in low-income, import-dependent economies.

In Other News

– Waiting in Hormuz… At the Pentagon s first press briefing since US President Donald Trump declared a two-week ceasefire with Iran, Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth repeatedly referred to the major combat operation in the past tense, according to a Globe and Mail report. America s military achieved every single objective on plan, on schedule, exactly as laid out from day one, he said yesterday morning. Operation Epic Fury was a historic and overwhelming victory on the battlefield.

That sort of language might be a tad premature: Both sides offered competing accounts of the terms of the agreement, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insisted the ceasefire deal did not include Lebanon. Israel then carried out its heaviest assault on the country since the start of the war, striking more than 100 targets in a 10-minute span and killing at least 254 people. Iran, which fired missiles and drones at several Gulf states yesterday, kept the Strait of Hormuz closed in response to Israel s attacks.

But even if Tehran can be persuaded to open the vital waterway…perhaps at the peace talks meant to begin tomorrow in Pakistan…it ll be a while before much oil flows through the Gulf region again with mistrust running high on both sides of the conflict. The US Energy Information Administration said it would take months after the war ends for normal output to resume, and that fuel prices will most likely continue to rise until then. Just as we had never before seen the strait close, we ve never seen it reopen, EIA administrator Tristan Abbey said. What exactly that looks like remains to be seen.

Roughly 20% of the world s oil is shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, and nearly all of that traffic came to a standstill once the US and Israel launched their war on Iran. According to the UN, some 2,000 ships…including oil and gas tankers, bulk carriers and cargo ships, along with six tourist cruise liners…have been trapped in the Persian Gulf since the end of February. Whenever the waterway does reopen, it ll be gridlock: Before the conflict, about 150 vessels passed through the narrow strait each day.

And note…75 critical energy infrastructures across the region have been attacked, more than a third of them severely. Repairs will take a long time…years in some cases…provided that officials feel it s safe for the work to begin.

Plus, it looks like we re in for another sticker shock: Iran said it will only allow ships to sail through the Strait of Hormuz if they cough up US$2-million each. Industry experts have taken to calling it the Tehran Toll Booth, and yesterday, Trump even absurdly floated the idea of getting in on the scheme. We re thinking of doing it as a joint venture, he told ABC News Jonathan Karl. It s a beautiful thing.

– Argentina exchange raises corn forecast to new record… Argentina’s 2025/26 corn harvest should reach a record 67 MMT, the Rosario grains exchange said, raising its estimate from a prior 62 MMT thanks to farmers planting more fields with the crop than originally expected. The corn forecast would far exceed the previous record of 52.5 MMT set in the 2023/24 season, according to data from the exchange. Argentina is the world s third-largest exporter of the grain.

While acres planted to soybeans were reduced this growing season, the exchange maintained its harvest estimate for soybeans at 48 MMT due to expected higher yields than previously forecast. Argentina is the world s largest exporter of soybean oil and meal.

– Super El Ni o event coming?... A meteorologist with WeatherDesk says conditions are expected to be mostly favorable across the US Midwest for the remainder of 2026. Kyle Tapley says parts of the Eastern Corn Belt have benefited from recent wet weather. That s taking care of some of the dryness that developed in the winter months across the Midwest, but it s still dry across the Delta particularly across the west central plains and in areas like western Kansas and Nebraska, he says.

He says current weather models are predicting a strong El Ni o event to develop in July and August. Typically, there is a correlation with some cooler and wetter conditions across the Corn Belt during that time period, he says. We are expecting near normal weather for summer in the US, but there are some cooler and wetter risks. The area of concern would be the far northern US Plains and the Canadian Prairies where we could see some dryness.

Tapley says El Ni o is expected to peak in November and will likely continue into early 2027.

Outside Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average charged 1,325.46 points higher on Wednesday to settle at 47,909.92, while the S&P 500 jumped 165.96 points higher to 6,782.81. Canada S&P/TSX stock index rallied 383 points to 33,620.

Early Thursday, the June Dow Jones Futures are down 172 points. European and Asian stock markets are also lower. TSX futures have followed sentiment lower this morning.

Global markets this morning are taking took back some of yesterday s relief rally as cracks quickly began to appear in the fragile Persian Gulf truce, pushing oil prices back up and reminding investors the inflationary fallout would last a long while yet.

The June US Dollar Index is down 0.215 at 98.710. The Canadian dollar strengthened against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 72.30 US cents.

May crude oil futures are up $5.52 at US $99.93/barrel. Oil prices are up this morning to test $100/barrel as doubts over a fragile two week Middle East ceasefire raised concerns that energy flows through the crucial Strait of Hormuz will remain restricted.

The chances of a meaningful [strait] reopening any time soon look dim, said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights, predicting continued volatility in oil prices.

Grain Markets

Chicago soybean futures are trading 4 to 5 cents/bu higher this morning. Bean futures closed Wednesday s session with contracts steady to 3 cents in the green, getting support from meal. Soymeal futures are up $1/ton or less than this morning after rising $2 to $5/ton yesterday. Soyoil futures are up 26 to 61 points right now after tumbling 150 to 230 points lower on Wednesday.

Crude oil was down $16/barrel yesterday following the announcement of a 2-week ceasefire between Iran and the US. But it s back up $5 this morning as cracks in the ceasefire are already showing.

USDA will release its updated monthly supply/demand report this morning (11 am CT). A survey of analysts by Bloomberg shows very few changes expected to the US balance sheet with an average estimate at 349 million bu for US soybean carryout in 2025-26 vs 350 million bu projected in March. Analysts look for world stocks to be up 0.2 MMT to 125.5 MMT.

Brazil s soybean harvest is nearing completion, with record harvest all but confirmed, while early harvest activity is ongoing in Argentina.

Stateside, the trade is monitoring any potential adjustments to planted area. One of the big questions right now is export demand for US beans from China, with high-level face-to-face negotiations not expected for more than a month.

Chicago corn futures are up 2 cents this morning. The corn market saw some buying off the early overnight lows yesterday, but still managed to close with losses of 1 to 3 cents with plunging crude oil the pressure point. But oil is back up this morning.

EIA data from Wednesday showed US ethanol production averaging 1.116 million barrels per day for the week ended April 3. That was a 41,000 bpd increase on the week. Stocks saw a 62,000 barrel increase, to 26.053 million barrels.

Ahead of today s USDA supply/demand report, analysts surveyed by Bloomberg are looking for a slight increase (3 million bu) from March to 2.13 billion bu for the US carryout projection. World ending stocks are seen 0.4 MMT higher to 293.2 MMT.

For Argentina, corn harvest conditions look mostly good with a record crop on the way. For Brazil, some of the second crop corn could use rainfall, with CONAB s next look at Brazil s crops out on the 13th.

In the US, while there are some concerns about planting conditions in parts of the Corn Belt, it is early.

US wheat markets are higher this morning…spring wheat futures up 6 to 8 cents, HRW gaining 9 cents and SRW wheat rising 3 to 8 cents. The US wheat complex was under pressure on Wednesday as money came flowing out with pressure from crude oil…spring wheat saw losses of 11 to 17 cents in the front months at the close.

Analysts are looking for USDA to trim its projection of US wheat ending stocks estimate by 8 million bu to 923 million in its supply/demand report today. World stocks are expected to be up 0.4 MMT to 277.4 MMT.

Medium-term forecasts have improved rain chances for parts of the US Plains, which, if realized, would benefit the hard red winter crop. In contrast, US soft red winter conditions generally look good. Wheat is also watching spring wheat planting conditions in the US and Canada, in addition to Australia, and post-emergence development in Europe, Russia, and Ukraine.

CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET

ICE canola futures posted double-digit losses on Wednesday, pressured by a sharp selloff in global energy markets and weakness in Chicago soyoil futures.

Crude oil prices tumbled following news of a 2-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran. The drop in energy values weighed heavily on vegetable oil markets, including canola, given its strong linkage to renewable diesel demand. Additional pressure came from declines in Chicago soyoil, although soybeans did manage to rebound from earlier declines to finish slightly higher on the day. Malaysian palm oil also gained, but European rapeseed was mainly lower.

May canola fell $14.50 on Wednesday to close at $704.90/tonne, while November lost $12.80 to $714.80.

For today… canola futures are showing some bounce back this morning, trading up mostly $2 to $4tonne. Nearby May canola futures are leading this morning with a gaining of $4.60 at $709.50/tonne. There is a still a technical concern on the price chart that yesterday s sell down was the trigger to a downside breakout of a multi-week sideways coiling pattern. But that has yet to be confirmed. May canola is trading below its 20-day moving average ($723) but so far has not violated its 50-day average ($702). That said, trendline support for the rally established from the December low has been violated.

The canola market is drawing support this morning from CBOT soy complex gains, more notably in soyoil. A bounce in energy markets is leading the way green in the ag markets overall this morning. That s coming from a rising degree of skepticism taking over market sentiment regarding the fragile US-Iran ceasefire ahead of talks Friday. Shouldn t be a surprise…can anyone trust either erratic US or fanatical leadership in Iran to keep the peace? Given the unrealistic nature of the ceasefire with it looking likely to fail, bargain hunting seems to be supporting canola over the $700 level.

Geopolitical headline news will continue to direct price direction across commodity and financial markets.

That said…seasonal price trends for canola at this time of year generally point higher.

Canadian old crop canola supplies remain more than sufficient to meet near-term demand. However, the prospect of reduced fertilizer applications due to high costs could be price supportive in the longer term if yield potential is diminished.

With the bearish technical signals on one side and supportive seasonals on the other, perhaps the market will just trade the war for now.

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Temperatures are relatively mild this morning with overnight lows generally in the -2 to -5C range. Highs today are expected to reach the mid to upper single digits. Temperatures are expected to rise to the low double digits through the weekend. Temperatures will cool back to the single digits early next week before rebounding to the low double digits. Average temperatures for this time of year are in the upper single digits to low teens.

The long-term forecast is calling for the development of a large trough across the Prairies bringing below normal temperatures to the region during the last half of the month. The trough will slow the start of spring fieldwork across the region. Below normal temperatures do not mean that daily highs will remain winter like with temperatures on most days reaching the upper single digits to low teens. Overnight lows will remain close to the freezing which will keep soil temperatures from rising rapidly.

OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE

Grain futures markets are mostly lower coming into this morning. The steep drop in crude oil prices overnight has put downside price pressure across grain and oilseed markets.

ICE canola futures are dropping $9 to $11/tonne, building on yesterday s declines…suggesting a potential downside breakout of the multi-week coiling pattern on price charts. Plunging crude oil and CBOT soyoil markets this morning are leading canola lower.

Chicago soybean futures are 1 to 3 cents/bu weaker this morning…also pressed modestly down by soyoil, but getting some support from slightly higher soymeal. Spread traders are now unwinding long bean oil/short meal spreads, and meal may have more room to run on the upside in the near term.

Chicago corn futures are falling 5 to 7 cents this morning…gapping down into a 5-week low.

US wheat markets are downside leaders…Minnie spring wheat futures are selling down 11 to 15 cents currently, HRW 15 to 16 cents lower and SRW wheat knocking 17 to 19 cents lower. Wheat markets gapped lower overnight, with winter wheats hitting 5-week lows. Forecasts for beneficial rains in US wheat country is seen as price-bearish for wheat.

The US, Israel and Iran all agree to two-week ceasefire and will discuss a deal to end war. (More in story below). Major relief rallies sweep through global stock and financial markets, while crude oil and gas prices have crashed lower this morning.

Grain futures were lifted in March as the war sent crude prices soaring, but have since seen the correlation weaken aside from vegoils and canola. Cereal grains have struggled to maintain upside momentum on expectations for ample near-term supplies, though the fertilizer shock created by the war has raised concerns about longer term global food production prospects.

In Other News

– Last-minute off-ramp in US war with Iran… As recent as yesterday morning, US President Donald Trump was threatening, A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again if Iran would not reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But by last night, Trump abruptly announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran. He said he would suspend all US military strikes if Tehran paused its blockade of the Strait, buying both sides more time to hammer out a peace deal. Iran agreed to halt its attacks, as well, and allow safe passage of ships through the strait under Iranian watch. Israel will also abide by the ceasefire, suspending its bombing campaign in Iran, though it continued attacking Lebanon this morning.

Despite his reckless bravado, Trump essentially surrendered to the 10-point proposal presented by Iran as a workable basis for negotiation and that he expected an agreement to be finalized and consummated over the next two weeks. Tehran issued a statement that talks between the two countries would begin on Friday in Islamabad. That isn t a surprising location: Pakistan has worked hard to position itself as a peace broker in this conflict, and spent much of yesterday engaged in frantic diplomatic efforts to reach some sort of deal.

But Trump has also shown that he s very willing to back down from his maximalist threats…this is the fourth time that he s extended his deadline for Tehran to cut a deal.

It s unclear whether this shaky/fragile ceasefire will hold: Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates reported drone and missile attacks early this morning. And it s unclear whether Trump will face any consequences for yesterday s threat to eliminate Iranian civilization…incendiary rhetoric that UN rights chief Volker T rk decried as a war crime. More than a quarter of congressional Democrats called for Trump s removal from office yesterday, either through impeachment or the 25th Amendment, though the chances of that happening are pretty much nil.

But for now, Trump seems to be sticking with his two-week ceasefire. The deadline to end his war in Iran moves forward to April 21…unless the President changes his mind again. Overall, this sets up a high-stakes two-week window where de-escalation is possible but far from guaranteed, keeping geopolitical and energy market volatility elevated.

This morning… Trump announced a new 50% tariff against any country supplying military weapons to Iran.

– All roads lead to higher prices, slower growth ... International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told Reuters in an interview late Monday that inflation and an economic slowdown as a result of the war have become largely inescapable.

The IMF is expected to release a range of scenarios in its semi-annual World Economic Outlook due on April 14. Without the war, Georgieva said the IMF had expected a small rise in its projection for global growth of 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027 as economies continue to recover from the pandemic. But even if the conflict is swiftly resolved, the IMF remains on track to cut its forecast for economic growth and bump up its outlook for inflation, Georgieva said. “Instead, all roads now lead to higher prices and slower growth,” she said.

– Ceasefire may be too late to avoid food inflation… Unless Iran peace talks progress rapidly, higher fertilizer prices may lower crop yields and fuel food inflation. The Bloomberg Agricultural Subindex gained 4% this year on concern over how farmers will respond to higher costs in the Northern Hemisphere planting season. It retreated less than 1% on news of a two-week ceasefire. Speculators in corn, wheat and soybean futures are the most net long since 2023. The last such commodity shock in 2022 stoked inflation for more than a year. Speculators in corn, soybeans and wheat were net long about 15% of open interest in the latest weekly data released April 3, a level last seen at the end of the 2021 to 2022 grains rally. The Bloomberg Grains Spot index is 40% lower than its high in 2022.

– CUSMA agreement, bilateral resolutions… US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Tuesday that a North American free trade agreement can be reworked to serve as a trilateral dialogue, but also a platform for addressing bilateral issues between participants. The comments come after US President Trump in recent months questioned whether the Canada-US-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) makes sense as a trilateral deal, since many of the thorniest trade issues between the US and its neighbors are bilateral issues.

We do have to have some kind of a protocol or something with Mexico and one with Canada, separately I think, to deal with issues specific to those countries, Greer said during an event hosted by the Hudson Institute. But he added that parties can layer over those protocols on the existing agreement, the report said.

The US has been working with Mexico over the past year to address a range of bilateral irritants…both trade and non-trade issues, such as drug cartels and illegal immigration. Last month, Greer s office began technical discussions with its Mexican counterparts about rules of origin, foreign investment and tariffs.

Canada s trade team in Washington, led by chief negotiator Janice Charette and ambassador Mark Wiseman, has re-engaged with the Trump administration over the past month after several months of virtually no contact. But formal CUSMA review talks between Washington and Ottawa have yet to start.

Greer said Tuesday that he expects bilateral negotiations with both partners to continue past the formal review date this summer.

– Grain traders await monthly USDA supply/demand report… The USDA on Thursday (Apr 9) is expected to show only small changes in its estimates of US corn, soybean and wheat marketing year-end carryout from the March report. However, US corn stocks in March are still expected to be significantly higher than in March of 2025. US wheat and soybean stocks are seen modestly above levels seen at the same time last year. Meantime, traders expect the agency to estimate Brazil and Argentina corn and soybean production levels to be very close to what it estimated in the March report.

– Indonesia sets biofuel mandate timeline… Indonesia’s energy ministry has issued a ministerial decree setting the timeline for the implementation of its biofuel blending mandate, as it tries meet its energy transition and self-sufficiency targets. It ?said that by 2028, all biodiesel users will shift to the B50 standard, which includes 50% palm oil-based fuel.

Indonesia, the world’s largest palm oil producer, originally planned to implement a mandatory blend of “at ?least” 40% palm-based biodiesel blended with 60% conventional diesel in 2026, according ?to a decree signed on March 3. Indonesia has since ?said it will launch a program to raise the mandatory blending rate for palm-based biodiesel ?from 40% to 50%, a standard known as B50, starting July 1. The early implementation ?of B50 was part of a wider government plan to mitigate risks arising from the Iran war. Indonesia plans to keep the palm oil blending rate at 50% for subsidized diesel in 2027, but unsubsidized diesel ?could stay at 40%, depending on the capacity available. B50 will be the standard ?for all users by 2028, the decree said.

Indonesia also plans to mix non-subsidized gasoline with ?at least ?5% ethanol in Java, the country’s most populated island, over the 2026-27 period, and raise the proportion to 10% by 2028.

Outside Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average down pushed 85.42 points lower on Tuesday to settle at 46,584.46, but the S&P 500 edged up 5.02 points at 6,616.85. Canada S&P/TSX stock index yesterday gained 55 points to 33,237.

Early Wednesday, the June Dow Jones futures have exploded up 1,244 points. European and Asian stock markets also rallied higher overnight. TSX futures have followed bullish sentiment higher.

Global stock markets shot higher as investors breathed a sigh of relief after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, with expectations that energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz could resume.

The rally will need to be backed up by tangible progress in negotiations to hold. The underlying question of whether Iran will permanently reopen the Strait of Hormuz and whether a lasting deal can be reached is still very much unresolved, said Josh Gilbert, market analyst for eToro. If the two weeks pass without a ?deal, expect a sharp and unforgiving reversal of this relief rally.

The June US Dollar Index has plunged down 1.327 to 98.355. The Canadian dollar strengthened against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 72.18 US cents.

May crude oil futures are being slammed down $20.82 to US $92.13/barrel. Oil pricing crashed below $100/barrel after the ceasefire deal between the US and Iran, subject to the immediate and safe reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

In theory, the 10 13 (million barrels per day) of crude oil ?and product supply stranded behind the Strait should now be gradually released, said Tamas Varga, analyst at brokerage PVM Oil. Whether the pre-March status quo will be re-established depends entirely on whether the truce can be turned into a permanent peace during the negotiations in Pakistan.

Grain Markets

Chicago soybean futures are trading 1 to 3 cents/bu lower this morning. Bean futures posted Tuesday losses of 6 to 9 cents in the nearby contracts. Soymeal futures are up $1 to $2/ton this morning after losing $1 to $4/ton in the front months yesterday. Soyoil futures are plunging down 207 to 239 points this morning after slipping a modest 8 to 31 points on Tuesday.

Crude oil is down $20/barrel so far this morning following a 2-week ceasefire between Iran and the US that includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Traffic was limited overnight. Early this morning President Trump posted that a country supply military weapons to Iran will be immediately tariffed by a rate of 50%. Probably an empty threat.

USDA will release its updated monthly US/world supply/demand report on Thursday morning (Apr 9). A survey of analysts by Bloomberg shows very few changes expected to the US soy balance sheet with an average estimate at 349 million bu for US soybean carryout vs 350 million bu in March.

Brazil s harvest is more than 80% complete, while the harvest is underway in Argentina. Soybean exports out of Brazil totaled 14.52 MMT in March according to the country s trade data, double the February total, but down 1.11% from a year ago.

The US Energy Information Administration on Tuesday raised its outlook for consumption and plant capacity for ethanol, biodiesel, renewable diesel, and other biofuels in its Short-Term Energy Outlook. The forecast for biodiesel, renewable diesel, and other biofuels was raised by 5.1% for 2026 and 8.6% for 2027 from last month.

Chicago corn futures are gapping 5 to 7 cents down this morning into a 5-week low. The corn market ended 4 to 5 cents lower on Tuesday. Technically, upside chart support for the May corn contract has been broken. Crude oil is down hard so far this morning following a 2-week ceasefire between Iran and the US that includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Ahead of USDA s supply/demand update on Thursday, analysts surveyed by Bloomberg are looking for a slight increase (3 million bu) from March to 2.13 billion bu for the US corn carryout projection.

Traders are monitoring harvest activity in Argentina and second crop development weather in Brazil.

US wheat markets are the downside leaders this morning… Minnie spring wheat futures are selling down 11 to 15 cents, HRW flushing 15 to 16 cents lower, while SRW wheat has tumbled 17 to 19 cents. The wheats have come off start-of-the-month highs to suddenly collapse to 5-week lows.

The USDA s first US winter wheat good to excellent condition rating of 2026 was well below a year ago, with soft red generally in better shape than hard red. Parts of the US Plains could see much-needed rain this week, but there are questions about coverage, and it d take a full pattern shift to erase the HRW drought region.

Analysts are looking for USDA to trim its estimate of US wheat ending stocks estimate by 8 million bu to 923 million bu in Thursday s report, according to a Bloomberg survey.

Argus estimates the Russian wheat crop at 88.7 MMT, an increase of 1.2 MMT from their previous number. European Commission data shows 18 MMT of EU wheat exports from July 1 to April 5, which is 1.21 MMT above the same time last year.

Traders are monitoring early spring planting activity in the US and Canada, while assessing conditions for winter wheat in the rest of the Northern Hemisphere and planting weather in the Southern Hemisphere. The trade is also keeping an eye on Russia s ongoing war on Ukraine and its impact on trade in the Black Sea region.

CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET

ICE canola futures closed lower for the second straight day on Tuesday, pressured by weakness in outside vegetable oil markets and a modest pullback in crude oil prices, which reduced support for biofuel-linked commodities.

Spillover pressure from Chicago soyoil futures weighed on canola values, as the broader oilseed complex struggled to sustain recent gains. At the same time, improving moisture in parts of the Canadian Prairies and generally favourable South American soybean crop prospects added to the bearish tone, reinforcing expectations for adequate global oilseed supplies.

May canola fell $7.20 yesterday to close at $719.40/tonne, and November lost $5.10 to $727.60.

For today… canola futures are trading $9 to $11/tonne lower this morning…now a third consecutive day of declines. May canola futures are down $11.20 right now at $708.20/tonne, threatening a potential downside breakout of the multi-week coiling pattern on the price chart. Plunging crude oil and CBOT soyoil markets this morning are leading canola lower. But given the shaky nature of the US-Iran war ceasefire, and strong possibility it may fail, look for bargain hunting to support May canola over the $700/t level.

But for now…with energies and world vegoils firmly selling off…canola has no choice but to follow. Notable to watch…CBOT soyoil gapping lower overnight…touching limit-down briefly…leaving a potential double top marker on price charts. That said, the pullback hasn’t even broken below the 20-day moving average, suggesting bargain hunting may be expected on any signs of the ceasefire failing. And note…the EIA confirmed a sharp increase in the expected use of US biofuel thanks to the final blending mandate rules.

On the feed grains… Feed grain prices were slightly higher for the week ended April 6, as demand continued to increase amid uncertainty due to rising fuel prices and the war in Iran…but overnight Persian Gulf war developments have weighed on grain markets over the past 12 hours.

Feed barley in Lethbridge is selling for $300 to as high as $300/tonne for May and June delivery, up $5 to $10 from two weeks earlier. There still seems to be some very aggressive bids for feed barley from the line companies.

But rising fuel prices, brought on by the war in Iran, have tightened margins for farmers, grain companies and railways, resulting in surcharges and higher freight rates. Where grain prices could go from here is hard to determine.

Stay informed with our daily market videos. Each video quickly covers key futures moves, price trends, and market signals that matter to Canadian farmers. Get clear, timely insights in just a few minutes. Bookmark https://www.producer.com/markets-futures-prices/videos

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OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE

ICE canola futures are ticking less than $1/tonne higher this morning, supported by rising world vegoil and energy markets as Middle East war escalation intensifies.

Chicago soybean futures are steady to a penny higher this morning, also supported by rising soyoil and energies.

Conversely, CBOT corn futures are losing a penny this morning. Including the lower start this morning, the corn market has been down in 6 of the past 8 trading sessions, as the nearby May contract has sagged to important trendline support on the chart near the $4.50/bu level.

US wheat markets are weaker…mostly 1 to 3 cents lower. The winter wheat market bulls in the overnight trade got no traction after Monday afternoon s initial USDA crop progress report showed a much-lower-than-expected US winter wheat crop good-excellent condition rating. (See item below). Added rainfall chances are weighing on the HRW wheat market.

Traders are closely monitoring developments in the Middle East, especially as US President Donald Trump’s deadline for Iran to agree to a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz approaches at 7 pm CDT today. US and regional mediators reported on Monday that Iran rejected a proposal to end hostilities for 45 days. Iran’s counterproposal was deemed “not good enough” by Trump. Crude oil remains firmly above $100/barrel as the conflict continues.

Time is running out to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. So far, the buffers in global energy markets…stockpiles, releases from strategic reserves, oil that left the Persian Gulf before the war broke out and oil on which sanctions have been lifted…have helped to keep price rises from spinning out of control. But those buffers will dry up soon, and real physical shortages are emerging in some markets (not just reflected in futures markets), notably East Asia and Africa. Meanwhile, the prices of other distillates, such as fertilizer, diesel, jet fuel and polyethylene, are shooting up.

By next week, those physical shortages will start spreading in Europe. A week later, they ll hit the Americas, and even the US won t be immune. Unless the White House miraculously finds a way to end this crisis within the coming days, things could start to get increasingly difficult for Americans and Canadians.

In Other News

– Rising South American soy/corn crop estimates… Noted crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier on Monday lifted his estimates for South American soybean crops and Argentina s corn crop. Brazil soybeans are up 1 MMT at 179 MMT: The country s soybean crop was 79.5% harvested as of late last week compared to 85.8% last year and 80.4% on average, according to Patria AgroNegocios, Cordonnier noted. The last major soybean state to harvest is Rio Grande do Sul, which was 24% complete as of late last week. Soybean yields in Mato Grosso ended up quite good, he said, with recent rains aiding the late developing crop. Yields in Rio Grande do Sul will be below initial expectations, but not as bad as previously feared several months ago.

Brazil s corn estimate was left unchanged at 132 MMT. Late planting of the safrinha, or second-crop, corn is increasing the crop s exposure to climate risks later in the growing season, and increased dependence on rain during the months of April and May, the critical period for grain filling, Cordonnier said.

Paraguay s soybean estimate was boosted 0.5 MMT to 12 MMT where the bean harvest is nearly complete. Beans were planted earlier in Paraguay compared to the neighboring Parana state in Brazil, he said…and even though rainfall during the growing season was irregular, it came at critical times.

Argentina soybean and corn estimates raised: Cordonnier lifted his Argentine soybean estimate by 1 MMT to 48 MMT, noting weather continued to improve last week. Early yields are encouraging, he said, and recent rains have improved yield prospects for later developing soybeans. Cordonnier also boosted his Argentine corn estimate by 1 MMT to 54 MMT.

– Russian wheat export prices rise... Russian wheat export prices rose slightly last week in response to market fears of a further escalation of the Iranian war and strong demand from importers. By the end of March, the pace of export shipments this season, which began on July 1, had for the first time exceeded the previous season s levels. Analysts said market prices do not yet reflect an attack on Sunday on a Russian grain ship in the Sea of Azov. The wheat-laden vessel sank after what a Russian official said was a Ukrainian drone strike.

The price of Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board delivery in May was US $239/tonne at the end of last week, up $1 from the previous week, said the IKAR consultancy. SovEcon expects prices for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content at $238 to $240/t FOB compared to $239 to $242 the week before. The agency raised its estimate of Russian wheat exports in March to 4.7 MMT from last week’s projection of 4.5 MMT. Wheat exports for the July March period of the 2025/26 season are therefore set to reach 37.7 MMT, exceeding last season s figures (36.3 MMT) for the first time this season.

– US winter wheat condition rating lower than a year ago… US winter wheat is out of dormancy and showing the impact of dry weather. The USDA says 35% of US winter wheat is in good to excellent shape, 13% below the first national rating of 2025, while 31% of the crop is poor to very poor, 10% above a year ago. The most recent Drought Monitor shows 65% of US winter wheat growing areas in some stage of drought, affecting hard red winter, soft red winter, and white winter growing areas.

– North Africa s big durum crop could limit demand… Wheat crops are looking good in North Africa, which could limit the need for durum imports in 2026-27. Poor rainfall from October to mid-November delayed cereal planting in Morocco, according to the April report by the Global Agricultural Monitoring (GEOGLAM) Crop Monitor. However, a shift to abundant rains from the end of November through February improved water reservoir levels for irrigation and soil moisture levels, supporting establishment and early development. Cumulative rainfall since October is the highest in the last 25 years in the centre and northwest, stated the GEOGLAM report. Crop biomass is well above average in most provinces, including in the eastern regions where cereal growth was initially delayed.

Rainfall distribution in Algeria has been uneven since the beginning of the growing season. Deficits in October and November delayed planting and constrained crop establishment in the northwest, but soil moisture conditions have improved since December, resulting in good crop biomass in some provinces. However, severe weather in late January triggered flash floods in several provinces, resulting in localized damage. Winter cereal biomass is average to above average in the key producing provinces in northeastern Algeria due to timely and abundant rain.

Sources confirm that North Africa is looking at big wheat and durum crops, with one forecast calling for a doubling of Morocco s production in 2026. Based on these outlooks, the North African durum crop could reach 5.6 MMT in 2026, 900,000 tonnes (20%) more than 2025. That is going to reduce 2026-27 import requirements from that important buying region.

Statistics Canada is forecasting that Canadian growers will plant 6.4 million acres of durum in 2026, a 2.4% drop from last year.

– Bad timing on fertilizer demand… India is looking to purchase 2.5 MMT of urea to shore up domestic supplies, which have tightened due ?to the US-Israeli war with Iran, Reuters reported. State-run Indian Potash Ltd issued a tender on Saturday to import 1.5 MMT via the country’s west coast, the report said, with the remaining 1 MMT to arrive through the east coast.

India is the world s largest urea importer. Fertilizer analyst Josh Linville of StoneX dubbed the move a worst-case urea scenario in a post on X. Long shipment period (thru June) will help, but this is bad, he wrote. Global values had been holding back on market fundamentals. Government money just entered the chat.

– Economic skunk at the party… JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, in his annual investor letter Monday, warned that a rise in inflation as a result of wars in Ukraine and the Middle East could stoke inflation and cause asset prices to drop. The skunk at the party…and it could happen in 2026…would be inflation slowly going up, as opposed to slowly going down, he wrote. This alone could cause interest rates to rise and asset prices to drop. Interest rates are like gravity to almost all asset prices. And falling asset prices at one point can change sentiment rapidly and cause a flight to cash.

Dimon s wide-ranging investment letters are closely followed on Wall Street. His remarks show that uncertainty around the inflationary and supply-chain implications of military conflict remains very much on the radar.

He elaborated:

We all hope these wars get properly resolved. But war is the realm of uncertainty, as each side in a war determines what it wants to do (as is often said, the enemy gets a vote ), and these conflicts involve many countries. Not only do they have a major impact on the nations at war, but they also have an impact on countries and economies across the globe that are not directly involved in war. Nations that are heavily dependent upon imported energy are already seeing the effects. And it s not just energy, it s commodity products that are byproducts of oil and gas, like fertilizer and helium. And given our complex global supply chains, countries are experiencing disruptions in shipbuilding, food and farming, among others. The outcome of current geopolitical events may very well be the defining factor in how the future global economic order unfolds then again, it may not.

– Canadians open to joining EU… New polling suggests a majority of Canadians think Canada ought to explore joining the European Union at a fraught time for geopolitical relations. A survey of 4,000 people conducted by Spark Advocacy s polling arm in March found that one in four respondents thought it would be a good idea for Canada to formally join the economic and political bloc of European nations. A further 58% indicated it was a proposal worth exploring further, while the remainder felt it was a bad idea. Spark s chief strategy officer Bruce Anderson says the survey suggests Canadians are increasingly open to finding ways to buck Canada s reliance on the United States after more than a year of tariffs under US President Donald Trump s second administration.

Outside Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 165.21 points on Monday to settle at 46,669.88, while the S&P 500 gained 29.14 points to 6,611.83. Canada s S&P/TSX stock index picked up 74 points to close 33,182 yesterday.

Early Tuesday, the June Dow Jones Futures are down 122 points, with European and Asian markets turning lower. Global markets are being pressured in nervous trading as the prospect of escalation in the war in the Middle East intensifies with Trump s deadline for a deal threat looms. There are already reports of US attacks on Iran s oil export facility on Kharg Island.

We are back on a [US President Donald] Trump imposed countdown clock and there s no way to predict with any confidence what will happen, said Kyle Rodda, senior markets analyst at Capital.com. The more intrepid traders might make a bet one way or the other. Others will look to hedge risk or stay out entirely. But there s not much market participants can really do but wait and see.

The June US Dollar Index is down 0.059 at 99.745. The Canadian dollar strengthened ever so slightly against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 71.89 US cents.

May crude oil futures are up $2.99 at US $115.40/barrel. Oil prices have rallied higher as a US-imposed deadline looms for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz or be taken out, with Trump threatening to order attacks on Iranian bridges and power plants. Iran s rejection of the US ceasefire proposal so far has kept tensions elevated and left diplomacy hanging by a thread.

Grain Markets

Chicago soybean futures are steady to a penny stronger this morning. Bean futures posted gains on Monday, with contracts 3 to 5 cents higher at the post-Easter close. Soymeal futures are narrowly mixed this morning after also finishing narrowly mixed yesterday in the front months. Soyoil futures are up a modest 16 to 19 points this morning after closing 40 to 101 points higher on Monday.

USDA yesterday tallied US soybean export shipments at 779,352 tonnes during the week ended on April 2. That was 12.3% above the week prior, but 4.6% below the same week last year. US marketing year exports for 2025/26 are 30.67 MMT since September 1, which is now 26.3% below the same period last year. USDA is currently estimating US soybean exports to total 42.87 MMT in 2025-26, down 16% from the previous year.

US domestic soy crush margins remain solid. Soybeans and bean oil have received price support from the gains in crude oil, which is supported by the ongoing supply concerns linked to the military actions in Iran and the Middle East.

AgRural estimates that Brazil s record large soybean crop was 82% harvested as of last Thursday, lagging the 87% harvest pace from the same week last year.

Chicago corn futures are losing another 1 cent/bu this morning…now down in 6 of the past 8 trading sessions as the corn market is rolling lower of its March highs.

Monday s USDA export inspections report showed 2.002 MMT of US corn shipped in the week ended April 2. That was 24.09% above the same week last year and 6.50% larger than the same week last year. The US marketing year total is now 48.47 MMT of corn shipped since September 1, which is 35.82% above the same period last year. USDA is currently estimating US corn exports to total 3.300 billion bu in 2025-26, up 15% from the previous year.

The corn market of late seems to have detached its link to rising energy markets.

Traders are monitoring harvest in Argentina and second crop development weather in Brazil. The USDA s April supply, demand, and production report is out Thursday (April 9), while CONAB s next round of numbers for Brazil are out April 13.

US wheat markets are weaker this morning… Minnie spring wheat futures are losing 1 to almost 3 cents, HRW down 2 to 3 cents and SRW wheat also off 2 to 3 cents…despite weaker than expected US winter conditions reported by USDA yesterday. The US wheat complex was mostly lower on Monday across the three markets…spring wheat finishing 1 to 2 cents in the red on the day.

Some forecasts have improved rain chances later this week for the dry western US Plains, potentially bringing at least some relief to the parched hard red winter crop. In contrast, the soft red winter crop seems to be in relatively good condition.

But USDA s first condition rating for the year out yesterday pegged the crop at only 35% good/excellent, well below the average 42% estimate from analysts. And that was also well shy of the 48% to start last year. Also…31% of the US winter wheat crop is called poor to very poor, 10% higher than last year.

USDA export inspections data showed US wheat shipments at 334,106 tonnes for the week ended April 2. That was down 13.5% from last week, and 0.38% below the same week last year. US marketing year shipments have totaled 17.73 MMT, which is up 16.6% yr/yr. USDA is estimating US wheat exports to total 24.5 MMT in 2025-26, up 9% from the previous year.

CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET

ICE canola futures eased lower on Monday, amid strength in the Canadian dollar and some profit taking. The Loonie gained as the American dollar slipped on Middle East war uncertainty. Iran rejected the latest ceasefire proposal on Monday, saying it wants a permanent end to the conflict, although negotiations do not appear to have broken down completely.

Chicago soybean and soyoil futures settled higher yesterday, with European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil mostly stronger.

May canola inched 40 cents lower on Monday to close at $726.60/tonne, and November was down $1.10 at $732.70.

For today… canola futures are trading mostly less than $1/tonne higher currently, but there has been some see-sawing above/below the unchanged line during the overnight session. May canola is up $0.60 right now at $727.20/tonne…still tightly wound in the coiling pattern we have highlighted on the price chart in recent days/weeks. A breakout is pending, but which way? Seasonals suggest higher, but we so far lack confirmation.

Geo-politics is dominating trade talk this morning. With Iran rejecting US-generated ceasefire proposals, suggests it is Trump that has mere hours left to either surrender his position…or…instruct the US military to move ahead with a massive aerial assault of Iran s civilian infrastructure (legal?).

Other than soaring crude oil, all other markets, including the ag sector, seem a bit paralyzed at the moment, waiting to see what happens after Trump s self-imposed deadline for deal with Iran at 7 pm CT tonight.

Soyoil is finding modest support this morning its latest push to a fresh contract highs, supported by the energy sector. Crude oil s rally, fueled by Trump s escalated rhetoric against Iran, further lifted sentiment for biofuel-linked commodities. Canola is also finding price support from that influence.

Stay informed with our daily market videos. Each video quickly covers key futures moves, price trends, and market signals that matter to Canadian farmers. Get clear, timely insights in just a few minutes. Bookmark https://www.producer.com/markets-futures-prices/videos

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OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE

Grain futures markets were mixed overnight coming out of the long weekend. Canadian and US markets were closed on Friday for the Good Friday Easter holiday.

ICE canola futures are trading mostly $1 to $3/tonne lower this morning, giving back a portion of Thursday s gains, through still holding a narrowing sideways range for much of the past month.

Chicago soybean futures are up 2 to 4 cents/bu this morning, led by the front months. Soy products are also showing modest gains.

CBOT corn futures are down a penny or less this morning.

US wheat markets are weakening…spring wheat futures down 2 to 3 cents, with winter wheats are losing 3 to 7 cents.

On Friday, the Commitments of Traders Report showed that for the week ending March 31, money managers remained net long the futures markets for canola, corn, the soybean complex, the wheats, lean hogs, live cattle, and feeder cattle.

On tap today…the first USDA weekly US crop progress reports of the year…US winter wheat the focus. Traders will continue watching news from the war in Iran. (More below).

In Other News

– Trump renews erratic threats on Iranian infrastructure… US President Donald Trump made new threats yesterday to escalate strikes on Iran and its infrastructure if it doesn t open the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday. A defiant Tehran in return threatened to restrict another heavily used waterway in the region, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait off the Arabian Peninsula entering the Red Sea and north to the Suez Canal. The weekend comments were a clear escalation toward continued and potentially intensified US military action against Iran, with a strategy focused on rapidly degrading military and energy infrastructure rather than pursuing near-term diplomacy, especially as intelligence suggests Tehran is not willing to engage in meaningful negotiations.

In a social-media post, Trump vowed to hit Iran s power plants and bridges and said the country would be living in Hell if the Strait of Hormuz, crucial for global trade, isn t opened. Both countries have threatened and hit civilian targets like oil fields and desalination plants critical for drinking water in the five-week war, which has killed thousands and shaken global markets.

Diplomatic efforts continue as mediators circulate a new ceasefire proposal. Oman said its officials met with Iran to discuss proposals to ensure smooth transit through the strait. Trump has issued similar deadlines before but extended them when mediators have claimed progress toward ending the war. Trump to hold news conference today at noon CT.

For markets, the key risk centers on the Strait of Hormuz, where disruptions could significantly impact global energy flows and sustain elevated risk premiums across crude and refined products, while potential strikes on Iranian oil facilities add supply-side tightening risk. Net, the setup is supportive for energy prices and volatility, with spillover effects into fertilizer, biofuels, and the grain complex through higher input costs and margin pressure, keeping markets biased toward pricing escalation rather than resolution in the near term.

Meanwhile, another policy signal from Trump indicates a significant expansion of US import tariffs, with plans to apply a 25% duty on the full value of finished steel and aluminum products, while maintaining 50% tariffs on commodity-grade materials, alongside potential 100% tariffs on certain pharmaceuticals in a flailing effort to force US domestic manufacturing. This marks a broader shift toward aggressive, multi-sector protectionism that raises input costs across industrial supply chains, increases inflation risk, and heightens the likelihood of retaliation from key trading partners. The move reinforces a more fragmented global trade environment, with spillover risks to agriculture through potential countermeasures and demand disruption.

– OPEC+ warns of oil supply disruptions for a long time … OPEC+ over the weekend warned that damage to Middle East energy assets will have a prolonged impact on oil supply even after the Iran war ends, as the cartel approved a symbolic increase in crude oil output quotas for next month, Bloomberg reported. Restoring damaged energy assets to full capacity is both costly and takes a long time, the group s ministerial monitoring committee said in a statement after meeting on Sunday. Any action that jeopardizes security of supply, whether that s an attack on energy infrastructure or disruption of export routes, increases market volatility and weakens OPEC+ s efforts, it said. Key producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed to increase targets for May by about 206,000 barrels a day during a video conference…a modest rise that will largely exist on paper as its key members are unable to raise production due to the US-Israeli war with Iran that has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz.

– Fertilizer prices surge as Hormuz closure enters fifth week... Fertilizer prices remain stubbornly high, offering little relief for farmers heading into the growing season. It s getting to the point where farmers are throwing their hands in the air and saying, I don t know what you want me to do, said Josh Linville, fertilizer analyst with Stone X Group. He says the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is entering its fifth week.

Since the day before the attacks began, I think we ve seen urea prices up some 60%, he said. I know anhydrous has been up substantially and UAN is following urea quickly. Phosphate hasn t been up nearly as much even though I still feel like the impact there has been even worse, but it was already incredibly high priced.

Linville says he s concerned the issue could carry over into the 2027 growing season. Fifty percent of the world s tradeable sulfur comes through the Strait of Hormuz, he said. That s one of your two biggest variable cost inputs into phosphate, so it really makes it hard to see phosphate prices falling. This is not a story to be taken lightly. This is a situation we ve never seen before.

He says farmers need to be communicating with their suppliers on a consistent basis.

– Ship transporting wheat near Ukraine sinks at sea… A bulk cargo vessel transporting wheat sank in the Sea of Azov, Russian-installed authorities in the Kherson region of southeastern Ukraine said on Sunday and as reported by Bloomberg. The circumstances of the incident are being investigated, Vladimir Saldo, the Moscow-appointed head of the occupied part of the region, said in a Telegram post. The crew abandoned the ship and managed to reach the coast, with nine members found onshore, according to Saldo. One man has died, and the whereabouts of two other crew members remain unknown, said the report.

– Ukraine strikes Russian nitrogen fertilizer plant… Ukraine over the weekend said it hit a nitrogen fertilizer plant in Russia, while Kremlin s forces targeted several Ukrainian regions, including a deadly strike in Dnipropetrovsk, as the war shows no signs of slowing down, Bloomberg reported. UAVs struck the KuibyshevAzot facility in Tolyatti, in Russia s Samara region, Robert Brovdi, a Ukrainian drone unit commander known as Madyar, said on Saturday. While Russia didn t confirm the information, regional Governor Vyacheslav Fedorishchev said earlier that the area had come under a drone attack targeting an unspecified industrial enterprise.

KuibyshevAzot is one of Russia s largest nitrogen fertilizer producers. The crop nutrient has been in focus since the start of the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. That s choked off vital flows of fertilizers and the natural gas needed to produce them, boosting the role of Russia, the world s No. 2 producer, in the global food supply chain, said Bloomberg.

– Canada cattle-herd consolidation… The Canadian cattle herd has entered the consolidation phase, according to a USDA Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report published last week. GAIN reports are compiled by Foreign Agricultural Service foreign service officers and staff around the world.

The report said heifer retention practices in 2025 and a slight increase to the breeding herd to begin 2026 will support a larger 2026 Canadian calf crop. Consequently, slaughter and beef production are forecast to see growth in 2026. Heifer retention and reduced cow culls will continue in 2026 in efforts towards a herd rebuild. Increased beef production and market access opportunities will see Canadian beef exports grow in 2026.

The report said Canada s swine herd is also forecast to remain relatively stable in 2026. Slaughter is forecast to see slight growth with a slightly larger pig crop and more processing capacity utilization. Pork exports will continue to remain strong on sustained global demand.

– Calgary Chamber urges policy overhaul to strengthen agriculture...Alberta s (and Canada s) agriculture industry needs a broad policy update to stay competitive in a more volatile global market, the Calgary Chamber of Commerce says in a new report that urges governments to modernize support systems, improve infrastructure and help producers adopt new technology.

The report, Growing Alberta s Global Agriculture Advantage, comes as the sector faces a fresh round of pressures from rising input costs, trade uncertainty and worsening climate risks. The chamber said prices for key farm inputs such as fuel, nitrogen and phosphate fertilizer have climbed in recent weeks amid conflict in the Middle East, while producers are also grappling with drought concerns and unanswered questions around WTO and Canada-US trade relations and the coming CUSMA review.

In a release last week, Chamber president Deborah Yedlin said Alberta agriculture has shown resilience through repeated disruptions, but warned that resilience alone is no longer enough. She said the sector remains too dependent on a small number of export markets and needs stronger government support to remain globally competitive.

Among its recommendations, the chamber called on federal and provincial governments to modernize crop insurance and other agricultural insurance programs, so they better reflect growing climate risk. It also urged expanded support for technology adoption, including artificial intelligence, robotics and precision agriculture, along with faster progress on rural broadband to improve connectivity by 2027.

The report also highlighted labour and succession challenges. It recommended better coordination of immigration, housing, health care and community infrastructure to attract workers to rural areas, and called for a permanent immigration stream to help agricultural workers move from temporary jobs to permanent residency. To ease generational farm transfers, the chamber said access to capital should be expanded through Farm Credit Canada and other lenders.

Other proposals include investing in rail, port and other trade-enabling infrastructure, harmonizing regulations across Canada and building stronger education-to-industry partnerships to draw more young people into agri-food careers

Outside Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 61.07 points lower on Thursday to finish at 46,504.67, while the S&P 500 edged up 7.37 points to 6,582.69. Canada s S&P/TSX stock index rose 161 points to close at 33,108.

Early Monday, the June Dow Jones Futures are down 59 points, though the S&P 500 is flat and Nasdaq futures are slightly higher. European stock markets are mixed to slightly weaker, as are Asian markets are mixed. Canada s TSX futures are slightly higher this morning.

Global markets are trading cautiously after US President Donald Trump warned of hell for Iran unless it reopens the Strait of Hormuz by his self-imposed deadline (Tuesday), but a report of a push for a ceasefire appeared to ease some nerves.

The markets are obviously nervous, said Sim Moh Siong, currency strategist at OCBC in Singapore. We ve seen many of these deadlines being pushed out, and it s difficult to tell to what extent this deadline is going to stick, or will it be pushed out too, he added. There was a lot of de-escalation hope, but some of this hope has fizzed out over the weekend in the ramping up of threats to blow up Iranian power plants and bridges.

The June US Dollar Index is down 0.155 at 99.700. The Canadian dollar strengthened against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 71.90 US cents.

May crude oil futures are down $0.55 at US $110.99/barrel. Oil prices have eased in choppy trading this morning as investors awaited clarity on the status of talks between the US and Iran even as they remained wary about sustained supply losses due to shipping disruptions.

Grain Markets

Chicago soybean futures are trading 2 to 4 cents/bu higher this morning. Bean futures saw losses of 1 to 5 cents in most contracts on Thursday, as May saw a 4.25 cent gain last week ended Thursday (April 2). Soymeal futures are up $2 to $3/ton this morning after closing down $3 to $4/ton on Thursday. Soyoil futures are a modest 5 to 14 points higher right now after rallying 100 to 183 points higher on Thursday, with the May contract up 153 points last week.

Soyoil futures remain supported by energy market strength, which has been supported by ongoing supply concerns and general regional and global uncertainties linked to the military action in Iran and the Middle East.

For soybean futures, money managers were net long by 213,407 contracts, adding 12,178 long contracts from the previous week. For the week ending March 31, money managers were net long the soyoil market by 135,809 contracts. Money managers were net long soymeal futures contracts by 99,933.

Brazil s soybean harvest is around 75% complete, while harvest activity is getting underway in parts of Argentina. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says 45% of Argentina s soybean crop is rated good to excellent, up 7% on the week.

The USDA s updated US/world supply/demand numbers are out April 9 and CONAB s next look at Brazil s crops is set for April 13.

Chicago corn futures are down a penny or less than morning. The corn market headed into the long weekend with some front month weakness as money was being taken off the table. Old crop contracts ended Thursday fractionally to 2 cents lower, though new crop was steady to fractionally higher. May corn lost 9.75 cents last week.

Friday s Commitment of Traders report showed 16,574 contracts trimmed from the managed money net long position as of March 31 to still a large net long of 267,974 contracts.

Traders are watching South America, while waiting for widespread US corn planting. In South America, the focus is on Argentina s expected record harvest, now at 19% harvested according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, along with second crop development conditions in Brazil. Meanwhile, fuel and fertilizer prices could have at least some impact on US corn acres planted this spring, which was already expected to be below a year ago.

Bottom Line…strong demand and potentially lower US acres are price supportive, but without weather risk, price upside will be limited.

US wheat markets are fading lower this morning…Minnie spring wheat futures are down 2 to 3 cents, HRW losing 4 to 7 cents and SRW wheat off 3 to 4 cents. The US wheat complex on Thursday held on for marginal gains to head into the long weekend…spring wheat finishing the day 3 to 4 cents in the green, with May up 1.5 cents overall last week.

The next week looks a little wetter for parts of the southern US Plains HRW wheat region, with parts of central Texas through the panhandle and up through parts of Nebraska seen with nearly 1 inch of precip. But dryness concerns persist for the western Plains. According to the US Drought Monitor, 65% of US winter wheat growing areas are in some stage of drought, 8% above a week ago. We will get a look at USDA s first weekly Crop Progress report from a national level this afternoon.

Traders are also watching conditions ahead of widespread spring wheat planting in the US Plains and Western Canada, in addition to emergence in Europe, Russia, and Ukraine, and pre-planting weather in the Southern Hemisphere.

Commitment of Traders data showed CBOT wheat specs at a net long for the first time since June 2022 at 8,641 contracts, a 10,875 flip in the week ending on March 31. In KC wheat, managed money was net long 21,517 contracts, a 11,812 contract increase on the week. MPLS wheat spec funds were a record net long of 21,156 contracts.

CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET

ICE canola futures ended higher on Thursday, supported by strength across the broader vegetable oil complex and a rally in energy markets.

Gains in crude oil…driven by escalating geopolitical tensions and expectations for a prolonged conflict involving Iran…provided underlying support to biofuel-linked markets on Thursday, including canola. Chicago soyoil futures also moved higher, along with European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil. Weakness in the Canadian dollar was supportive for canola as well.

May canola futures rallied $8.50 higher on Thursday to close at $727/tonne, while November gained $8.30 to $733.80.

For today… canola futures are trading mostly $1 to $3/tonne lower this morning coming out of the Easter long weekend. May canola futures are down $1.70 at $725.30/tonne…continuing the tightening coiling pattern of the past month or so.

Sentiment stays cautious amid escalating geopolitical tensions, with US President Trump s repeated threats against Iran and fears of Gulf retaliation adding volatility across commodities.

CBOT soy complex futures are modestly higher this morning. Soyoil is quietly higher after pulling back overnight from another test of contract highs (during the energy market’s early rally). The pullback from contract highs on Monday did leave a potential double top with 70 cent/pound resistance (at contract highs) now needing to be surpassed to negate the risk.

Malaysian palm oil is quietly lower while consolidating at contract highs. European rapeseed trade is closed today for an extended Easter holiday.

On the feed grains… MarketsFarm reporter Glen Hallick writes that cash prices for feed barley and wheat continued to remain largely flat in the past week. He notes, Susanne Leclerc of Market Master Ltd. in Edmonton says, And very mixed in the direction they re going. She said some in the industry are saying the feedlots are full and feed prices are coming down, while other people indicated prices are largely unchanged. Leclerc said elevator prices are flat as well, but wheat prices have been pointing upward. That should lead to higher prices for feed wheat. They re going to have to eventually buy it at a level where its comparable to where you can sell it elsewhere, she said.

Feed prices were steady to higher across Western Canada, according to Prairie Ag Hotwire. For the week ended April 1, feed barley gained an average seven cents in Alberta at $5.01 to $6.75/bu delivered and it added four cents in Manitoba at $4.60 to $4.75. Prices in Saskatchewan were unchanged at $5.12 to $5.45 bu./del.

Stay informed with our daily market videos. Each video quickly covers key futures moves, price trends, and market signals that matter to Canadian farmers. Get clear, timely insights in just a few minutes. Bookmark https://www.producer.com/markets-futures-prices/videos

To access the latest futures prices, go to https://www.producer.com/markets-futures-prices/

OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE

Grain markets are generally firmer this morning…posting corrective rebounds following Wednesday s selling pressure that did some near-term chart damage to some ag markets. Traders took a risk-off approach to ag commodities yesterday to ongoing erratic US President Donald Trump comments regarding his now month-long US misadventure into Iran.

ICE canola futures are rebounding $8 to $11/tonne, regaining a good portion of yesterday s declines. Chicago soybean futures are trading a more modest 2 to 3 cents higher this morning, supported by strong rebound gains in soyoil as crude oil is soaring again, which is also helping lift our canola market.

CBOT corn futures are posting gains of mostly 2 to 5 cents this morning.

US wheat markets are also bouncing back from yesterday s sharp sell-offs…spring wheat futures now up 5 cents, HRW 6 to 8 cents higher and SRW wheat gaining 8 to 9 cents.

Latest on the war in Iran

– Trump says US will hit Iran extremely hard in next two to three weeks
– Core US goals in Iran are nearing completion, Trump says in national address…whatever that was
– US will hit Iran s electric plants if there is no deal: Trump
– Iran and Israel continue to trade strikes as hopes for end to war fade
– News reports say Iran not willing to negotiate with US
– Crude oil prices sharply up; global stock markets sell off
– US and world bond yields rise as inflation…even stagflation worries resurface
– US and Israeli attacks batter Iran s civilian Infrastructure
– Gold plunges as Trump gives mixed signals on Iran war resolution

In his White House address last night, Trump delivered contradictory messages on the Iran war. President Trump sought Wednesday evening to explain his rationale for the war against Iran at a pivotal moment at home and abroad, but he offered few new details, said the Associated Press. Notably missing from Trump s primetime address was his oft-repeated assertion that negotiations with Iran were underway. He softened his weird rhetoric against NATO allies and did not indicate he was preparing to send in ground troops, particularly to retrieve Iran s enriched uranium, said the AP.

Listening to an incoherent Trump speech last night was baffling…as usual. It sure conflicted with the inspiring effort of the Americans (and Canadians) launching the Artemis spacecraft into orbit just a few hours earlier.

Canadian and US stock, financial and commodity markets will be closed on Friday for the Good Friday Easter holiday.

In Other News

– RVOs set to launch next US biofuels boom… Recently announced Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) from the US EPA stand to dramatically impact American soybean demand. We re going to have another boom that is going to be driven by renewable diesel and biodiesel, says Scott Irwin, professor of agricultural economics with the University of Illinois.

Irwin says the EPA s announced intentions to award only half credit for imported fuels and feedstocks beginning in 2028 is key. We re going to get more domestic feedstock use than we would have because of the incentives and the 45-Z tax credit. He says, You can only get the 45-Z tax credit if you use feedstock from North America.

He expects full implementation could drive soybean prices 50 to 75 cents/bu higher. That s a big move, and I think it s going to be responsible for us likely turning the corner and starting to crawl out of the cyclical lows for corn and soybean prices, he says.

Irwin says the mix of domestic and foreign feedstocks used in 2026 and 2027 will determine the extent of price impact the RVOs will have on soybeans in the near term.

– Feb US corn for ethanol, soybean crush numbers above a year ago…February US soybean crush and corn for ethanol numbers were mixed while still reflecting solid demand. The USDA says the corn grind and soybean crush both declined from January due to fewer business days and weather issues, but were up from February 2025 on those demand expectations for feed, food, and fuel usage.

425 million bu of corn were used for US ethanol production, 8% less than in January, but 1% more than February 2025, while the soybean crush of 214 million bu was 14 million below the prior month, but up 24 million from last year.

Distillers dried grains with solubles production were down on both the month and the year, while soyoil stocks were up sharply and soymeal stocks were tighter than a year ago.

– Action urged as EU extends pesticide ban plan... If a pesticide isn t approved for use in Europe, applying that pesticide to crops in Canada may soon become a problem. The European Commission has proposed a bill that would effectively set pesticide tolerances at zero on imported grains, oilseeds, pulses and other agricultural commodities.

A maximum residue limit of zero wouldn t apply to all pesticides…just for chemicals that European farmers aren t permitted to use. European politicians describe this move as levelling the playing field so that growers outside of Europe don t have a competitive advantage.

Agricultural organizations in Canada, the United States and other nations see it differently. They are extremely concerned about the European bill, known as the Food and Feed Omnibus, which was introduced in December. It could threaten exports of canola, durum wheat, pulses, soybeans and dozens of other commodities to Europe…not a primary destination for Canadian exports, but in some years the volumes can be significant.

– Aussie farmers shifting crop mix… Australian farmers are expected to favour less nitrogen-intensive crops such ?as barley over wheat and canola in the upcoming season, as surging fertiliser and fuel costs driven ?by the Iran war weigh on planting decisions in one of the world’s top food exporters.
Planting of wheat, canola and other crops is set to gather pace this month across much of Australia and farmers need ample supplies of crop nutrients to support early growth. But input costs have soared since the beginning of ?the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. Australian diesel prices are up 88% over this ?period.

Australia’s wheat planting could drop by 10% to 12% given the current conditions, from 30.6 million acres a year ago, an agricultural broker and an analyst said. Cultivation of canola is also likely to decline despite higher returns. Australia is the world’s fourth-largest wheat exporter and No. 2 supplier of canola, selling to importers across ?Asia, the Middle East and Europe. It also sells crops such as barley, chickpeas and pulses.

– Advance Payments Program interest free limit set at $250,000 for 2026…The interest-free limit for non-canola advances under the Advance Payments Program has been set at $250,000 for 2026. This extends the $250,000 limit, which was set in March 2025. Producers can receive an additional $250,000 interest free on canola only for a total of $500,000.

By increasing the interest-free portion of the Advance Payments Program, we re helping farmers manage costs, while giving them more flexibility to market their products on their terms, Agriculture Minister Heath MacDonald said yesterday.

The program offers up to $1 million to Canadian farmers based on the expected value of their agricultural products. Twenty-four industry groups across Canada deliver the program.

Outside Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 224.23 points on Wednesday to settle at 46,565.74, while the S&P 500 finished up 46.80 points at 6,575.32. Canada s TSX Composite stock index rose 190 points yesterday to 32,958.

Early Thursday, the June Dow Jones Futures are plunging down 598 points. European and Asian stock markets are also sharply lower.

Global stock markets are backsliding as hopes of a quick end to the Middle East conflict faded after US President Donald Trump ?vowed more strikes on Iran. Wall Street futures are in negative territory this morning after a short-lived relief rally extended gains on North American markets yesterday. Canada s TSX futures are followed sentiment lower this morning.

We have no additional certainty or clarity around timeline from [Trump s] address and this is what the market was looking for, said Jon Withaar, senior portfolio manager at Pictet Asset Management in Singapore. The fact that we can expect 2-3 more weeks of action, boots on the ground were not ruled out and that threats to hit infrastructure were reiterated will put the market back on the defensive, particularly as we come into the long weekend.

The June US Dollar Index is up 0.522 at 99.980. The Canadian dollar weakened against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 71.85 US cents.

May crude oil futures are soaring $13.48 higher at US $113.60/barrel. Oil prices leapt higher after Trump said the United States would keep up attacks on Iran without committing to a specific timeline to end the war, fanning ?investor fears about sustained disruptions to supply.

Without any mention of a solid ceasefire plan or material off ramp, markets are left continuing to digest the administration s (wildly conflicting) statements, said Claudio Galimberti, Rystad Energy s chief economist.

Grain Markets

Chicago soybean futures are trading 2 to 3 cents/bu higher this morning, but are easing back off their overnight session highs. Bean futures faced some weakness on Wednesday, down fractionally to 3 cents at the close. Soymeal futures are down $2 to $3/ton this morning after gaining $1 to $2/ton yesterday.

The trade is wary on export demand issues, including questions about demand from China, while watching US weather and conditions in South America.

Soyoil futures are rebounding 97 to 141 points right now after dropping 100 to 177 points on Wednesday. Crude oil is blasting $13/barrel higher this morning…sending a bullish charge into vegoil markets, following Trump s illogical address to his nation on Wednesday that indicated 2-3 weeks more of strikes and an uncertain fate to the Strait of Hormuz. Higher diesel futures have underpinned soyoil futures…though soyoil also continues to be well-supported by last week’s EPA biofuel production mandates.

Thursday will be the last trade day for the week as the markets are off for Good Friday.

Monthly US soybean crush data from USDA released Wednesday afternoon showed 214.2 million bu of beans were crushed during February. That was up 12.99% vs last year. US marketing year crush for the first half is now at 1.334 billion bu, up 8.28% yr/yr.

Chicago corn futures are trading 2 to 5 cents/bu higher this morning. The corn market closed mostly 2 to 3 cents lower yesterday, though some deferred ended slightly higher.

Crude oil shot higher overnight, following Trump s address…leaving uncertain how the US-Israeli war with Iran will end and the fate to the Strait of Hormuz.

EIA data from Wednesday morning showed US ethanol production averaging 1.075 million barrels per day for the week ended March 27. That was a 41,000 bpd drop on the week. Stocks saw a 1.179 million barrel draw, mostly in the Midwest and Gulf, to 25.991 million barrels.

USDA s Grain Crushing report showed February US corn grind at 424.8 million bu. That was a 0.73% jump from last year. US marketing year corn used for ethanol since Sept 1 now stands at 2.744 billion bu, down 7 million bu from a year ago.

Traders are watching conditions ahead of widespread US spring planting. There are some questions about the USDA s acreage guesses because of low farmer participation when the survey was conducted. The trade is also monitoring Argentina s expected record harvest and second crop development conditions in Brazil.

US wheat markets are trending back higher this morning… Minnie spring wheat futures rising 5 cents, HRW up 6 to 8 cents and SRW wheat gaining 8 to 9 cents. But the US wheat complex came under heavy selling pressure on Wednesday, as money was coming off the table…Chicago SRW futures finished yesterday down 9 to 18 cents, HRW futures were hammered 12 to 21 cents lower, while spring wheat futures lost 8 to 16 cents.

Traders yesterday removed some weather premium from wheat markets yesterday as near-term forecasts have rain in some US winter wheat growing areas into early this weekend. The 7-day forecast calls for heavy rains US SRW country as well as the eastern portions of the southern US Plains, with the western half on the lighter side with less than a half inch expected.

Ag markets generally are drawing varying measures of spillover support this morning by the overnight surge higher in crude oil markets, and the energies in general. Not a direct connection to the wheat market, but it s about speculative money flow this morning.

Total US wheat area in 2026 is forecast to drop to the smallest since 1919 at 43.8 million acres. This area drop is caused by a 2% reduction in winter wheat area, while spring wheat dropped by 6%. The drop in spring wheat area was expected due to weak prices. The wheat area reduction occurred in Minnesota (down 10%) and North Dakota (down 13%). Montana area remained unchanged from last year and South Dakota experienced a drop of only 4%. The HRS wheat area is currently the lowest since records on the class began in the 1980’s.

CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET

ICE canola futures posted double-digit losses on Wednesday, riding the elevator down with Chicago soyoil and crude oil. A pullback in crude oil prices…mainly attributed to momentary hopes the US war in Iran could end shortly…reduced support for biofuel-linked markets, dampening demand expectations for feedstocks such as canola oil. At the same time, Chicago soyoil futures declined, adding further weight to canola.

May fell $13.30 yesterday to $718.40/tonne, and November dropped $11.10 to $725.50.

For today… canola futures are rebounding $8 to $11/tonne higher this morning…lifted by the surge higher in energy markets which has in turn supported global vegoil markets. Nearby May canola futures are posting a gain of $11.60 right now at $730.10/tonne…seeing erratic daily price variation, but still remains rangebound between ~$715 to $740/tonne in a coiling chart pattern that has yet to resolved which direction is may take on an impending breakout.

Soyoil is leading global oilseed and vegoil markets higher this morning. But the pullback from contract highs on Monday does leave a potential double top with 70 cent/pound resistance (at contract highs) now needing to be surpassed in soyoil futures to negate the risk.

Malaysian palm oil were higher overnight, following bean oil and energy markets. European rapeseed is higher as well.

Canola crush margins here at home are remarkably strong with the May contract at $333.64/tonne as of March 31, more than double from a year earlier.

Where canola prices can go from here is as uncertain as the Iran war itself. Markets are so tied to the geopolitics right now…impossible to forecast.

Stay informed with our daily market videos. Each video quickly covers key futures moves, price trends, and market signals that matter to Canadian farmers. Get clear, timely insights in just a few minutes. Bookmark https://www.producer.com/markets-futures-prices/videos

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Temperatures are cool this morning with overnight lows mostly in the -5 to -10C range. Highs today will struggle to reach the low single digits this afternoon. A warming trend is expected to push into the Prairies over the weekend with highs mostly in the upper single digits.  The warm temperatures are expected to cool early next week, before another warming trend develops by early next week.

The long-term forecast is calling for a weak ridge to on the west coast of North America This ridge is not expected to push into the Prairies with temperatures expected to remain close to normal during the middle of April. On the positive side, normal temperatures will have climbed to the upper single digits and low teens. Spring is on the way, but it has been very slow to arrive. The weather pattern is expected to bring normal amounts of precipitation during the middle of April.

OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE

Grain markets reacted positively yesterday to the USDA Prospective Plantings Report, which showed a shift to more US soybean acreage for 2026, but less than the trade expected. There was a shift down in expected corn acreage, though not as much of a decline as expected.

Grain and oilseed markets that finished higher yesterday are mostly under pressure this morning…correcting lower.

ICE canola futures are trimming back recent gains, down mostly $5 to $6/tonne this morning. Chicago soybean futures are trading 6 to 8 cents/bu lower, with soyoil also correcting lower.

CBOT corn futures are trending 4 to 5 cents lower this morning.

US wheat markets are leading the morning declines…Minnie spring wheat futures losing 7 to 12 cents, HRW selling off 12 to 13 cents, while SRW wheat is down 10 to 11 cents. Wheat prices found support from weak crop progress ratings early in the week.

USDA s US Quarterly Grain Stocks Report estimates yesterday fell within the trade’s expectations…though still identifying large old crop reserves of US corn, soybeans and wheat. See more below.

The latest USDA data was seen as a mixed, but broadly neutral-to-slightly bearish for corn and soybeans. The report leans slightly negative for corn due to slightly higher than expected higher acres and softer usage, while soybeans remain in a holding pattern where US crush strength still needs to offset lackluster export demand.

Now…back to war, energies and now spring planting and HRW crops. Mixed to declining energy markets this morning, influenced by US President Trump’s one day yes, next day no comments about ending the Iranian war without reopening the Strait of Hormuz, limited row crop price gains this morning. On Tuesday, Trump stated the US would leave Iran in two to three weeks. That remark pushed crude oil lower.

Trump is scheduled to address his nation at 8 pm CT this evening with an update on the war. He will most likely either declare victory and announce a withdrawal, or will explain the reasoning behind an escalation, potentially a ground invasion. Anyone s guess what he ll say.

Financial/stock markets soared Tuesday and again this morning on the Trump comments he s willing to end the war without fully reopening Hormuz. Gains accelerated on reports Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian told European Council President Antonio Costa that Iran has “the necessary will to end this war but expects certain requirements to be met, especially the essential guarantees to prevent the recurrence of aggression.

Markets typically read this as a short-term easing of geopolitical risk, which can pressure crude oil by reducing the risk premium tied to disruptions in key routes like the Strait of Hormuz, but uncertainty remains given the conditional nature of the statement. As a result, expect continued volatility rather than a clear trend shift, with energy markets…and by extension biofuels and ag markets…reacting to each incremental headline around progress or setbacks in talks.

In Other News

– USDA sees higher US soybean acreage in 2026, lower corn, wheat… The USDA is projecting a year-to-year increase in US soybean acres and a cut for corn. Planted area for American grown beans is seen at 84.7 million acres, 4% more than 2025, but below the average pre-report estimate and what the USDA was expecting in February.

US corn planted area is pegged at 95.338 million acres, 3% below a year ago, while topping analysts expectations and USDA s Ag Outlook Forum guess.

Planted area for all types of US wheat is expected to be the lowest since 1919 at 43.775 million acres, with winter wheat 2% under the prior projection and the year before at 32.41 million acres and US spring wheat 6% lower than last year at 9.415 million acres.

These numbers will likely change due to weather during planting and financial considerations.

– Quarterly US corn stocks swell to all-time high… The US corn supply on March 1st was the largest for that date on record. The USDA says US corn stocks at the start of the third quarter of the marketing year were 9.024 billion bu, rising 11% on the year with last year s all-time high in production, even with solid second quarter demand. The previous March 1st record high for US corn stocks was set in 2018.

US soybean stocks were above expectations at 2.105 billion bu, 3% larger than a year ago, with a year-over-year decline in quarterly disappearance.

US wheat stocks of 1.3 billion bu were up 5% on the year, after a slight increase in production from 2024 to 2025, and despite good usage during the third quarter of the marketing year.

The 2025/26 US marketing year began June 1st for wheat and September 1st for soybeans and corn.

– USDA projecting lowest US wheat acreage in more than a century… The USDA sees a more than 100-year low for US wheat acreage in 2026. Planted area for all types of wheat is expected to be the lowest since 1919 at 43.775 million acres, with winter wheat 2% under the prior projection and the year before at 32.41 million acres and US spring wheat 6% lower than last year at 9.415 million acres.

For winter wheat, the mix includes 23.1 million acres of hard red winter, 5.79 million acres of soft red winter, and 3.54 million acres of white winter. For spring wheat, most of that is hard red spring at 8.78 million acres. Durum acreage is estimated at 1.95 million acres, which would be 11% below the prior year.

This follows a trend of declining US wheat acreage due to large global supplies and slower demand for US wheat. These numbers will likely change due to weather during planting and financial considerations.

– Canola February crush higher than year ago… The Canadian canola crush slowed for the second straight month in February but remained above the year-earlier level. Statistics Canada on Tuesday pegged the February canola crush at 951,353 tonnes, down 9.7% from January, although still up 7.8% from 882,610 in February 2025. It also marked the first time in six months the crush has dipped below the 1 MMT mark.

The cumulative year-to-date 2025-26 canola crush (August to February) now stands at 7.066 MMT…well on its way to over 12 MMT for the marketing year…compared to 6.812 MMT for the same period last year, which at the time was a record pace.

According to the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association, total national canola crush capacity is expected to reach 15 MMT in 2026. Cargill s new canola crush plant at Regina is estimated to process about 1 MMT of canola seed annually when it opens this spring.

– War in Iran boosting global demand for biofuels... Indonesia s abrupt pivot to expand its biodiesel mandate is the latest sign of how the war in Iran is reshaping energy policy, tightening global vegetable oil supplies as more gets funneled into fuel, according to a Bloomberg report. The world s top palm oil producer will implement its B50 program…an ambitious target to boost the level of biodiesel blended in its fuel to 50%…starting from July 1, Airlangga Hartarto, coordinating minister for economic affairs announced late Tuesday. The move is part of efforts to mitigate energy supply disruptions wrought by the conflict, with Airlangga saying it could reduce fossil fuel consumption by 4 million kiloliters annually. That s set to shrink the amount of palm oil the country has available to export and comes as other nations are ramping up biofuel mandates of their own, said the report.

– Canada’s finance minister aims to shore up China relations… Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne is on a trade mission to China, an attempt to woo a crucial trading partner as Canada looks to shore up friends and strengthen the country s economy. The visit by Champagne builds on a meeting between Prime Minister Mark Carney and Chinese President Xi Jinping in the country in January, according to the finance minister’s office.

China has suddenly become critical for many countries, including Canada, as US President Donald Trump’s trade policies have alienated his country’s traditional allies, forcing them to look for new partnerships and increase collaboration with the world’s second-largest economy…though the relationship is not without its challenges.

Champagne is meeting with high-level leaders in the financial sector and Chinese government counterparts on a two-day visit to Beijing to “build strategic partnerships and attract new investments as part of Canada’s broader diversification imperative,” a ministry news release said.

“Everyone has found a strategic way to engage with China,” said Champagne, several days before the visit, referring to his G7 counterparts. “China is the second-largest economy and our second-largest trading partner, so you have to engage.”

The total merchandise trade between the two countries was valued at $124.8 billion in 2025, almost 5% higher than the previous year. However, there is a substantial trade imbalance between the two countries. Last year, Canadian merchandise exports to China totalled $34.1 billion, while imports from there were $90.1 billion. Many Canadians who facilitate business in China see the new chapter in bilateral relations as a long-awaited opportunity to close the gap on the trade deficit as Canada works toward the goal Carney set of increasing exports to China by 50% by 2030.

– The fertilizer isn t there… The global fertilizer shortage created by the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to put attention on longer term, global crop production prospects. The poorest farmers in the Northern Hemisphere rely on fertilizer imports from the Gulf, and the shortage comes just as planting season begins, Carl Skau, deputy executive director of the World Food Program, told the Associated Press. In the worst case, this means lower yields and crop failures next season. In the best case, higher input costs will be included in food prices next year.

The Persian Gulf accounts for roughly 43% of seaborne urea exports, approximately 44% of seaborne sulfur, over a quarter of traded ammonia, and significant phosphate volumes via Saudi Arabia, according to North Dakota State University s monthly Agricultural Trade Monitor.

Some countries are already facing critical shortages of nitrogen, the AP report said, citing Raj Patel, a food systems economist at the University of Texas. For example, Ethiopia gets over 90% of its nitrogen fertilizer from the Gulf through Djibouti, a supply route that was strained even before the war began in February, he noted. The planting season is now, Patel said. The fertilizer isn t there.

– Brazil enlists bank managers to combat deforestation… After struggling for years to track and punish deforestation across the world’s largest rainforest, Brazil is recruiting new allies in the battle to protect the Amazon: bank managers. A new rule taking effect on Wednesday requires banks to check if rural loan applicants have any deforestation on their farms using government tools that ?provide data about them based on satellite imagery. If bank managers detect any clearing since 2019 in the Amazon or woodlands, farmers applying for government-funded rural credit ?must show proof of deforestation permits to get their loans approved.

“We turned every bank manager who handles subsidized credit into an inspector of illegal deforestation,” said Andre Lima, who leads efforts to fight deforestation in Brazil’s Environment Ministry.

The new policy has drawn blowback from Brazil’s powerful agribusiness sector, whose deep pockets and growing opposition to the government may shape October elections. The Agriculture Ministry itself argued to scrap the rule late last year. But advocates argue that the government needs more weapons in its anti-deforestation arsenal. As on-the-ground enforcement has become more difficult, the rule change aims to bring deforesters to heel by withholding billions of dollars of subsidized public credit.

Outside Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 1,125.37 points higher on Tuesday to close at 46,341.51, while the S&P 500 jumped up 184.80 points to 6,528.52. Canada s TSX Composite index charged 833 points higher yesterday to 32,768.

Early Wednesday, the June Dow Jones Futures are up another 201 points. European and Asian markets are also higher this morning. TSX futures followed sentiment higher.

Global markets have rallied on optimism of a de-escalation in the Middle East conflict after President Donald Trump said the US could end its military attacks on Iran in two to three weeks.

They re still quite far apart in terms of what a truce means, or what peace means, but the market is embracing the fact that they are talking, said Rodrigo Catril, currency strategist at National Australia Bank in Sydney. That s a positive sign … [but] while this is all happening, attacks are continuing from both sides.

The June US Dollar Index is down 0.499 at 99.260. The Canadian dollar strengthened against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 71.99 US cents.

May crude oil futures are down $1.18 at US $100.20/barrel. Oil prices are weaker this morning, but are trading off their overnight lows as persistent Middle East volatility still leave markets unnerved even amid reports the US-Israeli war with Iran could be winding down.

Front-month May Brent crude settled at $118.35 on Tuesday, up 4.9% on its expiration day. It was 63.3% higher for the month, which was the largest monthly percentage rise ever based on data going back to 1988, MarketWatch reported. Prices finished Tuesday at their highest since June 2022. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude for May delivery settled at $101.38 Tuesday. It climbed 51.3% in March, the biggest monthly rise since May 2020.

Even if it starts to de-escalate, the flow of tankers won t resume right away…shipping costs and insurance, tanker movement will take time to return to normal, said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova. She added that the actual damage to oil infrastructure could only be assessed afterward.

OPEC oil output plunged in March to its lowest level since the height of the COVID-19 pandemic in June 2020, a Reuters survey found, as the US-Israeli war against Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz and forced export cuts. Crude output by Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries members in March fell by 7.3 million barrels per day month-on-month to 21.57 million bpd, the survey showed, led by cuts in Kuwait, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Grain Markets

Chicago soybean futures are trading 6 to 8 cents/bu lower this morning to start the new month of April. Bean futures posted 5 to 13 cent gains across most contracts on Tuesday, led by the new crop months. Soymeal futures are less than $1/ton higher this morning after gaining $1 to $2/tone yesterday.

Soyoil futures are 54 to 97 points lower right now after pushing 14 to 41 points higher on Tuesday. Just something to watch…this pullback in bean oil from contract highs on Monday does leave a potential double top with 70 cent/pound resistance now needing to be surpassed to negate the risk.

USDA reports yesterday forecast a total of 84.7 million acres of US soybeans intended for this spring. That was a 3.485 million acre swing higher from a year ago, but 787,000 acres below the average trade guess. March 1 US soybean stocks came in at 2.105 billion bu in the quarterly Grain Stocks report, which is up 194 million bu from a year ago…slightly higher than most trade estimates.

Separately, the US Energy Information Administration on Tuesday reported that the amount of soyoil used to produce US biofuels in January totaled 978 million pounds, up from 859 million pounds in December. Of that total, 541 million pounds were used to produce biodiesel, and 437 million pounds for renewable diesel.

Traders are watching the late stages of soy harvest in Brazil and development conditions in Argentina, while waiting to see what happens with China soy demand.

Chicago corn futures are down 4 to 5 cents this morning after the corn market closed Tuesday s session with contracts steady to 2 cents higher.

USDA yesterday forecast 95.338 million acres of US corn to be planted this spring. That would be a 3.45 million acre drop from a year ago if realized, but was above the 94.37 million acres average trade guess. US corn supply at March 1 was tallied at 9.024 billion bu. That was 89 million bu below the average trade guess but still an increase of 887 million bu from a year ago…and the largest for that date on record.

Separately, the Energy Information Administration announced on Tuesday that 25.87 billion pounds of corn were used to produce US ethanol in January, below 27.02 billion pounds in December 2025. Analysts see the US weekly ethanol output ending March 27 holding steady, while stocks may drop from a week ago.

Traders are also monitoring the harvest of Argentina s record corn crop and second crop development conditions in Brazil.

US wheat markets are leading the ag market declines this morning…Minnie spring wheat futures are losing 7 to 12 cents, HRW plummeting 12 to 13 cents and SRW wheat dropping to 10 to 11 cents. Ironically, the US wheat complex got a positive reaction yesterday to the USDA reports, rallying across the three markets…spring wheat finishing Tuesday 6 to 8 cents in the green.

USDA estimated US all wheat acres for 2026 at 43.775 million, 0.905 million acres below trade estimates and 1.553 million below last year. If realized, this would be the lowest US all wheat acreage since USDA records began in 1919.

US winter wheat acres were 32.41 million acres, 580,000 below the Winter Wheat Seedings report in January and down 743,000 from last year. US spring wheat was 428,000 acres shy of estimates and down 485,000 from a year ago at 9.415 million acres. Durum was at 1.95 million acres.

US Grain Stocks data was tallied at 1.3 billion bu for wheat as of March 1…the largest March 1 wheat stocks in five years.

The trade is watching rain forecasts for US Plains and Midwest winter wheat areas, along with winter wheat emergence conditions in Europe, Russia, and Ukraine, and pre-planting weather in the Southern Hemisphere, especially Australia. The most recent round of US condition ratings did show further declines in some key winter wheat states linked to the ongoing drought in wide swaths of the US Plains.

CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET

ICE canola futures closed higher on Tuesday, drawing support from strength in the broader oilseed complex and a lack of bearish surprises from the day s USDA reports.

Chicago soybean futures moved higher following the US prospective plantings and grain stocks data from USDA on Tuesday, which came in mostly in line with expectations and failed to signal a burdensome expansion in soybean acreage. That spillover support, combined with firm soyoil values, helped lift canola prices.

Malaysian palm oil and European rapeseed markets were also both higher on the day.

May canola finished Tuesday up $4.10 at $731.80/tonne, while new crop November gained $2.80 to $736.60.

For today… canola futures are trading mostly $5 to $6/tonne lower this morning, giving back all of yesterday s gains and then some. Might be some profit-taking to start the new month.

Nearby May canola futures are down $6.10 right now at $725.70/tonne…still tightening the coil on the symmetrical triangle chart pattern on the price chart we have been talking a lot about in this space in recent days. No clear breakout signal for either direction just yet. May canola still operates generally within a $720 to $740/tonne consolidation price range.

Some competing influencing on canola trade this morning…lower CBOT soybean/soyoil futures vs still trending higher diesel markets.

Malaysian palm oil futures spiked to fresh highs at one point last night, but corrected to finish the session lower thanks to profit-taking on weaker soyoil.

European rapeseed is also lower this morning following its recent bull market bounce.

Stay informed with our daily market videos. Each video quickly covers key futures moves, price trends, and market signals that matter to Canadian farmers. Get clear, timely insights in just a few minutes. Bookmark https://www.producer.com/markets-futures-prices/videos

To access the latest futures prices, go to https://www.producer.com/markets-futures-prices/

OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE

We are seeing a mixed, pre-USDA report release market tone this morning across grain futures. ICE canola futures are moving $4 to $5/tonne higher at this time, making new highs of the mixed overnight trade.

Chicago soybean futures are 1 to 4 cents/bu higher this morning (nearbys leading…also pushing overnight session highs…with advances in soyoil providing the support.

CBOT corn futures are down 1 to mostly 2 cents.

US wheat markets are mixed…spring wheat futures losing around a penny, but the winter wheats mostly 1 to 3 cents higher.

This is an important trading week for the grain markets that sees US planting intentions and quarterly grain stocks reports from USDA later today (11 am CT release). Today is also the last trading day of the month and of the quarter, which makes it an extra important trading day from a technical analysis perspective.

Latest on the war in Iran…

– Trump mulls exiting war without reopening Strait of Hormuz: WSJ
– Earlier, Trump renewed threats against Iranian infrastructure
– Iran hits a fully laden Kuwaiti oil tanker near Dubai
– Iran fired three missile salvos at Israel on Tuesday morning
– Spain shuts its air space to US flights involved in Iran offensive
– US may re-examine NATO s merit after Iran war snub, Rubio says

Daily contradictions continue from US President Trump…even within the same tweets…on one hand telling his aides he s willing to end the US military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal…likely extending Tehran s firm grip on the waterway and leaving a mess of an operation to reopen it for a later date. In recent days, Trump and his aides assessed that a mission to pry open the chokepoint would push the conflict beyond his timeline of four to six weeks. He decided that the US the goals of hobbling Iran s navy and its missile stocks and wind down current hostilities while pressuring Tehran diplomatically to resume the free flow of trade. If that fails, Washington would press allies in Europe and the Gulf to take the lead on reopening the strait, the officials said, according to the Journal. In other words…make a mess, leave, and have others clean it up.

In Other News

– US planting intentions, grain stocks data on deck… Today s US planting intentions and quarterly grain stocks reports are likely to be grain market movers. A Dow Jones Newswires survey shows the average of analysts surveyed put US planted corn acres for 2026 at 94.481 million. Traders also expect higher US corn stockpiles as of March 1 than seen at the same time last year. US planted soybean acres are seen by the analysts average at 85.463 million acres. Traders also expect higher US soybean stockpiles as of March 1 than seen at the same time last year. US all wheat acres are seen by the analysts average at 44.605 million acres. The survey showed traders expect higher US wheat stockpiles as of March 1 than seen at the same time last year.

– UN warning of possible food shortages as early as summer… The United Nations warns that we could face global food shortages as early as this summer as a product of Iran shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, through which a large portion of the world s supply of energy and fertilizer products flow. That is a very real problem, but predicting mass global food shortages by this summer seems a bit dramatic in my opinion.

Will tighter fertilizer supplies result in lower global production? Sure, that will likely happen, leading to tighter world supplies of food-based commodities. The poorest countries will suffer the most. But it s important to understand that we still see global surpluses of most food-based commodities to ease the shortfall this year.

Nonetheless, the headline of food shortages is becoming increasingly reported on Wall Street, gaining fund manager buy-in, which impacts money flow in futures markets. As such, it suggests that we could see more money flowing into the food-based commodities as long as the war continues to escalate in the Middle East. Near-term, those markets are focused on today s USDA US quarterly grain stocks report (known for its surprises) and its annual US planting intentions survey results that will be released at 11 am CT.

– Further review of updated biofuel policy... The global increase in fuel prices emerging from the Iran war increases demand for biofuels. Argentina will allow ethanol blends up to 15% to ease high fuel prices, while also allowing biodiesel blends up to 20%. Indonesia indicates that it will proceed with its mandate to push biodiesel blending to 50% this year, utilizing its supplies of palm oil to do so.

This comes on top of the US Environmental Protection Agency s release of its final biofuel guidelines for 2026 and 2027 on Friday, which contained strong blending mandates as well. The EPA s announcement finally provided clarity for the US industry that it s been lacking for much of the past couple of years.

The final US guidelines set the 2026 renewable diesel blending requirement at 8.86 billion RINs, with the 2027 mandate at 8.95 billion, including a 70% reallocation of previously granted small refinery exemptions. That translates into about 5.4 billion gallons of fuel production. Add in the reallocation of the SREs, and it rises to about 5.53 billion gallons, up from 3.35 billion in 2025. For 2027, we see a base RVO requirement of 5.7 billion gallons, which rises to about 5.86 billion gallons when the reallocated SREs are added back in.

Imported feedstock will get a full RIN of credit through 2027, but the EPA stated that it intends to go to a 50% credit in 2028. The biofuel requirements are expected to support demand for canola grown in Canada, at least until 2028…not sure where Canada canola fits after 2028. Is our canola still fenced in with US domestic oilseed/vegoil feedstock for the biofuel or fenced out after 2028. Not sure on that yet.

– Waiting for India s pulse duty announcement... MarketsFarm reporter Glen Hallick writes that Canadian pea and lentil markets could experience some shifting, as India is about set make an announcement on its pulse import duties any day now. Presently, tariffs on peas sit at 30% for all countries (Canada included) and lentils sit at roughly 11% for all countries, says Jeff English, vice president, public affairs for Pulse Canada.

For some time, India suspended its duties on pulses as a means to reduce food inflation, as domestic supply wasn t quite enough to meet demand. However, with growing pressure from Indian farmers, the country s government reimposed the levies in late 2025.

English said Pulse Canada will be in a better position to comment after the Indian government has said where it s going with its pulse import duties.

English also commented on the state of the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement being negotiated between Canada and India. the launch of negotiations is a positive step towards a new bilateral trade relationship. We look forward to playing an active role during these negotiations to ensure that Canada s pulse sector can benefit from enhanced trade between our two countries, he said.

– Russian wheat exports stable… Russian wheat export prices remained stable last week, with no new obvious drivers for price movement, analysts said as they made further upward revisions to estimates for March exports. The price of Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content for free-on-board (FOB) delivery in May was US $238/tonne at the end of last week, unchanged from the previous week, said the IKAR consultancy. SovEcon also expects prices to remain unchanged for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein content, at $239 to $242/t FOB. The again raised its estimate of Russian wheat exports in March to 4.5 MMT from last week’s projection of 4.2 MMT.

– WTO suffers fresh blow after reform push hits wall… World Trade Organization talks broke up on Monday with unsurprisingly no agreement on a plan for reform or even on extending a moratorium on e-commerce, piling more pressure on the trade body that finds itself increasingly sidelined by economic nationalism. The four-day ministerial talks in Cameroon’s capital Yaounde ended with Brazil blocking a bid by the US and others to prolong a moratorium on duties for electronic transmissions like digital downloads and streaming.

“It marks another crack in the foundations of the WTO system,” said Andrew Wilson, Deputy Secretary General of the International Chamber of Commerce, urging delegates to renew the moratorium before states hit digital services with new charges.

Expectations for progress had been low before the talks but there were hopes the moratorium – which has been regularly renewed since 1998 – would at least be extended. That ultimately proved impossible. US officials and business groups voiced frustration, and Britain’s Business and Trade Secretary Peter Kyle called the failure to reach consensus a “major setback for global trade.” The talks were deemed a test of the WTO’s relevance after a year of huge trade turmoil and more recent disruptions due to the US-Israeli war on Iran.

Efforts to rebuild the WTO’s predictable trade terms are creating “a spaghetti bowl of free trade agreements, bilateral initiatives, and plurilaterals,” said Dmitry Grozoubinski, executive director of the Geneva Trade Platform think tank. Agreeing on an e-commerce moratorium was seen as key to securing US support for the WTO, which under President Donald Trump has retreated from global multilateral bodies.

The WTO said progress was made on a reform roadmap, and discussions on issues like reworking its rules to render subsidy use more transparent and facilitate decision-making are expected to continue in Geneva. The US and the European Union argue China in particular has taken advantage of current rules to their detriment.

The WTO impasse might likely boost alternative trade structures like the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade deal encompassing 12 countries including Japan, Britain, Canada, Mexico and Australia…but not the US.

Outside Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 49.50 points on Monday to settle at 45,216.14, but the S&P 500 ticked down 25.13 points to 6,343.72. Canada s TSX Composite stock index fell 26 points yesterday to 31,935. Early Tuesday, the June Dow Jones Futures are up 445 points.

Global stock markets are higher this morning, even as investors focused on the war on Iran that they fear will drive inflation higher and raise the risk of recession across the globe. Wall Street futures are in positive territory after North American markets closed mixed yesterday. Canada s TSX futures are following sentiment higher right now.

Canada s economy grew modestly at the start of the year, ahead of the oil price shock fueled by the Iran war. Gross domestic product expanded by 0.1% in January, while preliminary data points to a 0.2% increase in February. Statistics Canada data this morning shows growth in January was driven by goods-producing sectors, which expanded by 0.2% for the second month in a row. Gains in mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction offset a decline in manufacturing.

The June US Dollar Index is down 0.378 at 99.975. The Canadian dollar weakened against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 71.85 US cents.

May crude oil futures are up only $0.23 at US $103.11/barrel…fading the overnight gains now, with deferred contracts turning slightly lower on erratic and conflicting commentary out of the White House. Oil prices are volatile as investors weighed the possibility of Trump ending the Iran war vs continued supply shocks from a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a major artery for global oil flows.

While diplomatic signals remain mixed, the ground reality suggests that uncertainty will persist, said Sugandha Sachdeva, founder of SS Wealth Street, a New Delhi-based research firm. Even in the event of de-escalation, restoring damaged infrastructure will take time, keeping supply tight.

Grain Markets

Chicago soybean futures are trading 1 to 4 cents/bu higher this morning. Bean futures saw weakness late on Monday as front months came back to close fractionally mixed. Soymeal futures are mixed this morning…less than $1/ton either side of unchanged after doing the same yesterday. Soyoil futures are up 50 to 62 points after rallying 52 to 106 points higher on Monday…pressing up to near 3-year highs. US soy crush demand continues to be strong, soyoil demand for biodiesel use looks bullish, and crude oil is higher.

USDA export inspections data showed soybeans at 586,427 tonnes shipped in the week ended March 26. That was down 28.3% from last week, and 47.4% below the same week last year. US marketing year shipments since September 1 have totaled 29.182 MMT, which is down 27% yr/yr.

USDA March US Planting Intentions data will be out later this morning, with traders looking for 85.55 million acres of soybeans planted this spring. That would be up 4.33 million acres if realized. March 1 US bean stocks are estimated at 2.067 billion bu ahead of the Grain Stocks report (multi-year high), which is up 158 million bu from a year ago if realized.

Brazil s record harvest is ongoing, while Argentina s crop rating improved slightly this week.

Chicago corn futures are down 1 to mostly 2 cents this morning. The corn market saw pressure on Monday ahead of today s USDA reports, with contracts closing down 3 to 6 cents.

USDA s export inspections data showed US corn export shipments at 1.789 MMT during the week ended March 26. That was 5.1% above the week prior and 4.14% larger than the same week last year. US marketing year export shipments for 2025/26 are 46.37 MMT since September 1, which is now 36.11% ahead of the same period last year.

Ahead of today s USDA Planting March Intentions report, traders are looking for 94.37 million acres of US corn to be planted in 2026. That would be a 4.4 million decline from last year if realized. US Grain Stocks data is expected to be tallied at record corn reserves of 9.104 billion bu for March 1, which would be up 957 million bu from a year ago if realized.

Argentina s record corn harvest is now just over 15% complete, with traders also watching second crop development in Brazil and conditions in the US ahead of widespread spring planting.

US wheat markets are mixed this morning, with the winter wheat contracts mostly 1 to 3 cents higher and spring wheat fractionally to a penny lower. The US wheat complex also posted mixed action on Monday, with Minnie spring wheat finishing strongest with 2 to 4 cent gains.

Monday s USDA Export Inspections report showed 364,219 tonnes of US wheat shipped in the week ended March 26. That was 20.73% above the week prior and 27.38% larger than the same week last year. The US marketing year total is now 20.295 MMT of US wheat shipped since June 1, which is 16.7% above the same period last year.

Over the weekend, precip forecasts shifted a little further west, with more portions of the dry US Plains in line to see some moisture. That would boost US hard red winter conditions at least somewhat as the crop emerges from dormancy, and depending on how far north the coverage goes, it could also be favorable for US spring wheat acreage. In comparison to HRW, the soft red winter crop generally seems to be in satisfactory condition.

For today s USDA reports, analysts expect all 2026 US wheat acres to be in the 44 to 46 million range, which would continue the recent trend of the lowest US wheat area over the past 100 years. Winter wheat acres are expected to decline from the USDA’s January forecast. On the bearish side, March 1 US wheat stocks are expected to be at a five-year high and near 1.3 billion bu.

World wheat supplies continue to be seen as ample. Traders are monitoring conditions either during emergence, planting, or pre-planting in a wide swath of areas in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres including Argentina, Australia, Canada, Europe, Russia, and Ukraine.

CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET

ICE canola futures closed higher Monday, drawing support from the broader vegetable oil complex and another sharp rise in crude oil as the Iran war moved into its fifth week. A key supportive feature was the strength in Chicago soyoil, which climbed toward a fresh three-year high as higher crude prices improved the outlook for biofuel feedstocks. Soyoil was boosted by both the rally in crude and by the White House s recently announced US biofuel blending standards.

Gains in European rapeseed and Malaysian palm oil reinforced the oilseed markets bullish tone.

May canola rallied $7.20 higher on Monday to close at $727.70/tonne, while November added $5.90 to $733.80.

For today… canola futures see-sawed some in overnight trade but are currently turning higher…up $4 to $7/tonne to their highest levels of the overnight session, drawing support from CBOT soyoil pressing 3-year highs and modest soybean gains. May canola futures are up $6.50 right now at $734.20/tonne, building on yesterday s vegoil and energy market gains. It s still a coiling symmetrical pattern on the price chart…not yet signaling clear direction of an impending breakout…but you and I are both hoping it s higher.

Traders today are watching Persian Gulf war developments and the 11 am CT release of USDA US acreage and quarterly grain stocks data to set the market tone. Canola continues to trade in a holding pattern for the moment, though seasonal price trends tend to point higher in the April-June timeframe.

CBOT soybeans are slightly higher this morning, led by soyoil. Malaysian palm oil rose overnight thanks to stronger energy markets and soyoil…tapping its higher levels since November 2024. European rapeseed futures are quietly higher following its recent bump higher.

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OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE

After crumbling lower on Friday, ICE canola futures are rebounding mostly $8 to $10/tonne higher this morning…recovering all of the previous session s declines.

Chicago soybean futures are trading mostly 1 to 3 cents/bu higher this morning. Soymeal is dipping slightly lower, but soyoil futures are charging higher with rallying energy markets.

CBOT corn futures are losing 1 to almost 3 cents this morning.

US wheat markets are mixed to lower… Minnie spring wheat future are 4 to 5 cents weaker in the front end contracts, but 2 to 5 cents higher in the deferred new crop months. US HRW contracts are down 9 to 10 cents this morning, while SRW wheat is losing 4 to 5 cents.

This is a critical trading week for grain markets, with USDA s US planting intentions and quarterly grain stocks reports out Tuesday…see more below).

Canola, corn and soybeans fell Friday and for the week on pre-USDA report profit taking and fading Friday s US biofuel announcements (more below). Much trade focus remains on the war in Iran and its impact on energy markets. Mixed signals from Washington and Iran show clear miscommunication…neither can be trusted with relaying truth. WTI crude oil is trading over $100/barrel.

Latest on the war in Iran

– US President Donald Trump said Iran had agreed to allow 20 oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday. Not sure he is telling he truth as the global energy crisis continues to grow, with the Strait of Hormuz still effectively shut right now. Trump also mused about seizing Iran s Kharg Island oil terminal in the Persian Gulf
– Iran s grip on Hormuz is tighter than ever after a month of war: Bloomberg
– Pakistan announced yesterday that it will host talks between the US and Iran, though there was no immediate word from Washington or Tehran
– US, Israel continue to hit Iran, while Tehran launched missiles across the Gulf region
– Iran has said US demands are excessive and illogical

In Other News

– New US biofuel rules please canola industry… On Friday, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) finally announced its final US Renewable Fuel Standard Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) for 2026 and 2027. EPA s final rule maintains the 15 billion US conventional biofuel level for 2026 and 2027 production. Blending levels for biomass-based diesel, which includes biodiesel and renewable diesel, were increased by nearly 60% from the previous standards to between an estimated 5.0 to 5.7 billion gallons according to Clean Fuels Alliance America.

Market react on Friday was actually negative to this positive news…which didn t seem a good sign…though the RVO announcement had been anticipated for weeks and the markets saw profit taking as the news may have already been priced into CBOT soybean, soyoil and ICE canola futures.

Still…Canada s canola sector is pumped about this long-awaited US biofuel policy update. We re very pleased to see those updates, and Canadian canola can make a meaningful contribution there, said Canola Council of Canada president Chris Davison. He had not yet seen the EPA s official regulatory text, but based on the agency s announcement, there does not appear to be anything preventing Canadian canola oil from helping to meet the feedstock demand for the new RVOs. Canola is a modest but important feedstock in US biomass-based diesel production, said Davison. The new RVOs should create an appreciable opportunity for Canada s canola crushers who have greatly increased production capacity in recent years.

The final rule also reallocates 70% of retroactive small refinery exemption volumes dating back to 2016 back into the blending pool to support additional biofuel production and oilseed demand.

– Canada trade mission to China… Finance Minister Fran ois-Philippe Champagne is leading a trade-diversification mission to China this week, expanding on Prime Minister Mark Carney s recent trip to that country aimed at resetting strained bilateral ties. Brian Tobin, vice-chair of BMO Financial Group and a former Newfoundland premier, said Ottawa s move could open the door to significant Chinese investment in Canada.

Champagne will meet senior Chinese finance and banking officials during a visit from April 1 to 4. China is expected to reciprocate with an investment delegation to Canada later this year.

– Grain traders brace for Tuesday s USDA US planting intentions, grain stocks data… For USDA grain market report days, they don t come much bigger than Tuesday s US planting intentions and quarterly grain stocks reports…especially with spiking fertilizer prices and availability concerns bringing a new twist for potentially less US corn planted acres this year.

A Dow Jones Newswire survey shows the average of analysts surveyed put US planted corn acres in 2026 at 94.481 million. Traders also expect higher US old crop corn stockpiles as of March 1 than seen at the same time last year. US planted soybean acres are seen by the analysts average at 85.463 million acres. Traders also expect higher US soybean supply as of March 1 than seen at the same time last year. US all wheat acres are seen by the analysts average at 44.605 million acres. The survey showed traders expect higher US wheat stockpiles as of March 1 than seen at the same time last year.

Note though that the Iran war may be upending some of the original planting intentions of US farmers…though there is universal expectation of fewer US corn acres in 2026, and the lowest quantity of US spring wheat planted since 1970, as rising fertilizer and fuel costs and low grain prices dim the outlook for profits. US soybean seedings, meanwhile, are expected to climb as some growers shift acres away from corn and wheat, which require more costly fertilizer.

– Cordonnier cuts Brazil s corn estimate… Noted crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier left his estimate of Brazil s soybean crop unchanged at a record large 178 MMT, with a neutral bias. Brazilian soybeans were 68% harvested as of late last week compared to 80% last year, according to AgRural. Cordonnier s 2025-26 Brazil corn estimate was lowered 1.0 MMT last week to 132.0 MMT with a neutral-to-lower bias. Safrinha corn in Brazil was 97% planted as of late last week compared to 100% last year.

His 2025-26 Argentina soybean estimate was left unchanged this week at 47.0 MMT with a neutral bias. Cordonnier s 2025-26 Argentina corn estimate was left unchanged this week at 53.0 MMT with a neutral bias. Corn was reported 13.0% harvested as of late last week, which represents an advance of 3.6 points for the week.

Cordonnier estimates US farmers will plant 93.5 million acres of corn and 86 million acres of soybeans. The 2026 US crop acreage estimates have been impacted by the conflict in the Middle East, and the resulting increased
fertilizer costs. The most significant impact has been on nitrogen fertilizer, which is essential for corn production, he says.

– Indonesia to go ahead with B50 biodiesel mix this year… Indonesia’s President Prabowo Subianto said on Monday during an official visit to Japan that the Southeast Asian country ?will go ahead this year with ?its B50 palm oil-based biodiesel program. We “are going in a big” way to biofuel,” he said at a business forum ahead of his meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. “We will produce ?this year diesel oil from ?palm oil and now we are increasing from 40% to 50% (content mix).”

In January, authorities scrapped a plan to launch B50…a blend of 50% palm oil-based biodiesel and 50% conventional diesel…this year due to technical and funding concerns, instead ?sticking with the B40 blend. But there have been talks to revive the plan in the light of the energy supply disruptions brought about by the US-Israeli war on Iran.

– Larger India wheat harvest, but below estimates... India’s wheat harvest is expected to rise in 2026 from a year earlier, but fall short of initial estimates after unseasonal rains and hailstorms hit the maturing crop. India, the world’s biggest wheat producer after China, grows a single annual crop, sown in October-November and harvested in March-April. After years of weak output, production rebounded in 2025 on favourable weather, but a late-February heat spike this year has raised yield concerns. “Production will be higher than last year but below our earlier projections,” Navneet Chitlangia, president of the Roller Flour Millers Federation of India, told Reuters.
The government has forecast this year’s wheat output at a record 120.21 MMT, while the flour millers’ body had pegged production at 115 MMT. “We now expect the crop to come in at 113.5 114 MMT, lower than our previous estimate of 115 MMT, but still comfortably above our estimate for last year’s crop of 109.5 110 MMT,” Chitlangia said.

– Inflation risk rising... The Middle East crisis will fuel a surge in US inflation to 4.2% this year, the highest in the G7, according to an OECD forecast that highlights the cost of the US-Israeli war with Iran. Canada s inflation rate is projected at 2.4% this year, then tapering off slowing to 2.0% in 2027.

The Paris-based organization predicted that energy prices would sharply increase inflation around the world, with significant downside risks to growth if disruptions to energy exports worsened, according to the Financial Times. While the OECD expects US inflation to jump from 2.6% in 2025, countries including China, South Korea, and India also face a sharp increase in price growth because of energy shock.

The breadth and duration of the conflict are very uncertain, but a prolonged period of higher energy prices will add markedly to business costs and raise consumer price inflation, with adverse consequences for growth, the organization predicted in its interim outlook.

Risking pressure on consumers would hurt US economic growth, which is expected to slow to 2% this year and 1.7% in 2027, the OECD said. Canadian GDP growth is projected to slow a half point to 1.2% in 2026, but bounce back to 1.7% in 2027. Global growth is forecast to slow from 3.3% last year to 2.9% in 2026, before picking up to 3% next year.

Prior to the Iran war, global growth was proving resilient, driven in part by a jump in capital spending on AI as well as surging stock markets.

– WTO chief: world order has irrevocably changed... The head of the World Trade Organization says the multilateral system has fundamentally changed and that countries must look to the future to consider how to reform the global trade system. “The world order and multilateral system we used to know has irrevocably changed. We will not get it back…We must look to the future,” WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala told delegates late last week at the opening of the 14th WTO ministerial conference in Yaounde, Cameroon.

While 72% of global trade still takes place under WTO rules, with growth in AI-related trade providing a bright spot, Okonjo-Iweala said the world trading system faces significant uncertainty due to the Middle East conflict and impact of US tariffs on countries around the world.

Okonjo-Iweala set out a list of problems facing the WTO, including the paralysis of the WTO’s dispute settlement body and transparency in notifying the use of subsidies.

Only 64 members had filed subsidy notifications at the WTO for 2025, meaning 102 had not, Okonjo-Iweala said. Lack of transparency leads to lack of trust, and that breeds suspicions of unfairness and anti-competitive behaviours,” she told delegates. This contributed to a “vicious cycle” of mistrust which is holding back members from agreeing new rules and reforms, Okonjo-Iweala added.

– Government bond prices rally around the globe on economic slowdown worries… Sovereign bond prices rose around the world on rising fears the Middle East war will derail world economic growth. US treasuries advanced with UK and Japanese bonds on speculation that surging oil prices may be just a harbinger of a protracted global fuel shortage. That s helping boost demand for government debt that until recently had been under selling pressure as fears over quickening inflation outweighed their traditional haven appeal, said a Bloomberg report.

The market is now letting its imagination run wild about what the world might look like in a month s time if there is no resolution by then to the war, said Gareth Berry, a strategist at Macquarie Group Ltd. Parallels with Covid are already being identified as economies are at risk of shutting down…this time due to lack of fuel, he said and as reported by Bloomberg.

The bond price rallies come after weeks of selling that was driven by surging oil costs and concern over potential central bank interest rate hikes. The recent shift in focus toward slowing economic growth is easing fears that central banks will need to adopt an aggressively hawkish stance to control inflation, said the report.

– Canada and Mercosur near free-trade agreement... Canada and South America s Mercosur bloc are advancing toward a free?trade agreement that could be signed by the end of the year, with another round of negotiations scheduled for next month in Brazil. The government officials, from Canada, Argentina and Brazil, told Reuters they expect the deal to be concluded in 2026, with one noting that talks were progressing well and could be wrapped up before September. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is expected to visit Brazil in the next quarter. Although neither government plans to announce an agreement during the visit, it may serve as a push to finalize one as soon as possible.

The renewed momentum follows months of technical exchanges after Canada and Mercosur agreed last year to relaunch the talks that had been stalled since 2021. Mercosur is composed of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, with Bolivia expected to become a full member in 2028. The talks with Canada come after Mercosur signed a trade agreement with the European Union in January.

– US hogs report shows tighter breeding herd… The USDA’s March 1 Hogs and Pigs report painted a mixed picture of the US hog sector, with the breeding herd coming in tighter than expected, while market hog numbers were roughly in line with trade guesses. The report pegged the US inventory of all hogs and pigs on March 1 at 74.3 million head, up just slightly from a year earlier but down 1% from Dec. 1. Pre-report estimates had the total herd up nearly 1% on the year.

The USDA put breeding inventory at 5.89 million head, down 1% from a year earlier and below the average trade guess. Market hog inventory, at 68.4 million head, was up 1% from a year ago, matching the average pre-report estimate almost exactly.

Looking ahead, producers intend to farrow 2.86 million sows in March through May, up slightly from a year ago, and 2.90 million in June through August, down 2% from last year.

Taken together, the report suggested a hog sector that remains productive, but with less breeding herd expansion than expected.

Outside Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged down 793.47 points on Friday to settle at 45,166.64, while the S&P 500 dove 108.31 points lower to 6,368.85. Canada s TSX composite index actually rose 73 points to finish Friday at 31,960. Early Monday, the June Dow Jones Futures are up 343 points.

Global stock markets are higher this morning in cautious trading amid concerns the Middle East conflict could bring a spike in inflation and the risk of recession to much of the globe. Wall Street futures are in positive territory after major US markets closed sharply lower on Friday. Canada s TSX futures are following sentiment higher this morning as commodity prices climbed.

Oil is the lightning rod right now, said Eren Osman, managing director of wealth management at Arbuthnot Latham, adding a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz was the key to calming world markets. The biggest challenge for us as investors today is that you ve got one of the widest ranges of potential outcomes, he said, adding he did not expect a prolonged conflict as he believed US President Donald Trump has a pain threshold for market losses.

The June US Dollar Index is up 0.138 at 100.120. The Canadian dollar weakened against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 71.94 US cents.

May crude oil futures are up $1.82 at US $101.46/barrel. Oil prices extended gains after Yemeni Houthis launched their first attacks on Israel over the weekend, widening the US-Israel war with Iran in the Middle East.

The market has all but discounted the prospect of a negotiated end to the war, Trump s claims of ongoing direct and indirect talks with Iran notwithstanding, and is bracing for a sharp escalation in military hostilities, which is a bullish signal for crude, with huge uncertainties on the timing and nature of the outcome, said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights.

Grain Markets

Chicago soybean futures are trading 1 to 3 cents/bu higher this morning, starting to pull back from overnight highs. Bean futures closed Friday s session with contracts down 5 to 14 cents…front months leading the losses, as May beans ended down 2 cents for the week ended Friday. Soymeal futures are down around $1/ton this morning after posting losses of $2 to $6/ton on Friday, with May meal dropping $12.70/ton for the week. Soyoil futures are rallying 89 to 119 points this morning, rebounding from the 6 to 61 point declines of Friday on some buy-the-rumor, sell-the-fact price action. May bean oil was still up 190 points on the week ended Friday.

On Friday, the soybean market might have sold off due to China announcing an investigation into US trade in retaliation to similar US probes announced earlier in the month.

As expected, EPA released their finalized RVOs for 2026 on Friday, with bio-mass based diesel blending rate increasing by nearly 60% from the previous standards to between an estimated 5.0 to 5.7 billion gallons equivalent for each of the next two years.

USDA March Intentions data will be out on Tuesday, with traders looking for 85.55 million acres of soybeans planted this spring. That would be up 4.33 million acres if realized. March 1 US soybean stocks are estimated at 2.067 billion bu ahead of tomorrow s Grain Stocks report, which is up 158 million bu from a year ago if realized.

AgRural estimates Brazil s soybean crop at 75% harvested as of Thursday, with the crop now pegged at 178.4 MMT, up just 0.4 MMT from the previous number. Also, China and Brazil have reportedly reached a deal to relax phytosanitary issues that had slowed down shipments for much of this month.

Chicago corn futures are down 1 to almost 3 cents this morning. The corn market eased lower on Friday with contracts steady to 5 cents lower led by the nearbys. Front month May corn was down 3.5 cents last week.

Ahead of the USDA March Intentions report on Tuesday, traders are looking for 94.37 million acres of US corn to be reported by the agency. That would be a 4.4 million decline from last year if realized. US Grain Stocks data is expected to be tallied at 9.104 billion bu for March 1, which would be up 957 million bu from a year ago if realized.

AgRural estimates the Brazil second crop corn now at 99% planted as of Thursday, while they trimmed their production total by 0.5 MMT to 135.7 MMT.

The EPA announced in their 2026-2027 biofuel mandates that 15 billion RINs of “conventional” (ethanol) biofuel will be mandated, the same as in the Set 1 volumes required from 2023-2025. Essentially, corn demand for ethanol can reasonably be expected to hold in its recent pattern and near 5.5 billion bu.

US wheat markets are mostly weaker this morning…led by 10 cents declines in HRW wheat futures and 5 cent losses in SRW. Minnie spring wheat futures are mixed though…down 4 to 5 cents in the two front months (old crop), but 2 to 5 cents higher in the deferred new crop contracts. The US wheat complex saw mostly higher trade on Friday…spring wheat futures finished 1 to 3 cents higher on Friday, with May HRS rallying an impressive 20 cents last week.

Wheat is showing lower trade on Monday morning after weekend forecasts shifted a little wetter for US winter wheat areas. Over the weekend, forecasts shifted moisture a little further west, with more portions of the US Plains seeing some rain. Portions of the western Plains are now covered, with heavier totals in the eastern half.

March Intentions data will be out on Tuesday, as traders are looking for 44.79 million total acres of US wheat this year, down 544,000 acres from a year ago if realized. Analysts expect US spring wheat plantings to come in 150,000 acres lower than 2025 at 9.84 million acres. The decline is modest compared to other classes. Spring wheat futures have seen a surge in time to incentivize producers to plant.

Grain Stocks data tomorrow is estimated at 1.31 billion bu for US wheat, which would be 73 million bu above a year ago.

Globally, the trade continues to watch winter wheat emerge in Europe, Russia, and Ukraine, while keeping an eye on things ahead of the next round of spring wheat planting, soon to get underway across the Northern Hemisphere.

CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET

ICE canola futures closed lower on Friday, largely on spillover pressure from the Chicago soy complex, which turned lower after the White House biofuels announcement in a classic buy-the-rumor, sell-the-fact reaction.

Even though the EPA s new 2026-27 renewable fuel requirements were fundamentally supportive for vegetable oils and oilseeds, soybean futures and soyoil still slipped as traders took profits after the policy news. European rapeseed was also lower on Friday, although Malaysian palm oil managed gains.

The Canadian dollar was weaker, which offered some support to canola.

May and November canola each lost $8.90 to end at $720.50, and $727.90/tonne, respectively.

For today… canola futures are rallying mostly $8 to $10/tonne higher to start this morning. May canola futures are up $8.80 right now at $729.30/tonne, recovering almost all of Friday s sell down, with the contract finishing $6/t lower to end last week. The coiling pattern of the price chart is worthy of note…though not yet signalling a clear direction of the pending breakout.

We saw some buy-rumor/sell-fact trade on Friday in reaction to the EPA s US biofuel blending rate announcement as traders focused on the lack of an advantage for homegrown feedstock versus imported options until 2028 as an excuse to take profits. But the news is bullish with targeted US bio/renewable diesel blending rates for 2026 and 2027 now set over 60% higher than in 2025…and canola oil is fully acceptable for use.

World vegetable oil markets are rallying this morning, with further gains in energy markets adding to the bullish tone. A lack of any de-escalation signal to the US-Israeli war with Iran has most market participants expecting some sort of US ground invasion and bracing for energy prices to remain higher for longer.

Also keep an eye on Australia. With their near total dependency on imported fuel, and looming shortages already, the fact that they normally seed wheat, barley and canola from now through June, and the outlook being so bleak for imports of fuel and fertilizer…the country could suffer a serious blow to this year’s production.

Interesting to note, the ICE canola domestic crush margin is being reported at a record high of $330/tonne compared to being just under $190/t at the end of January and only $150/t at this time last year. Domestic crush operations continue to run ahead of last year s record pace…and Canadian canola exports, while still lagging last year, are starting to catch up some. Even at today s higher canola price, demand remains quite strong.

European rapeseed is higher this morning following its recent bull market correction. Malaysian palm oil is breaking to the upside from its own short-term symmetrical coiling pattern.

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