The residents of the Marquises Islands in French Polynesia in the mid Pacific might note a slight chill in the water when they swim this year.
We are not talking about a Lake Winnipeg type of chill. The Marquises, a few tiny volcanic outcroppings, are equatorial. But these islands, featured a few years ago in the fourth instalment of the TV series Survivor, are the closest landfall to where a La Nina weather event is developing.
We care about La Nina because it appears to be the reason for the drought affecting the United States winter wheat belt.
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La Nina is the name given to part of what climate experts call the Southern Oscillation, a fluctuation of air pressure and sea temperature over the tropical Pacific.
La Nina is a cooling of one or two degrees of the water in the eastern Pacific. El Nino is a warming of the water.
Both can cause major weather anomalies that affect crops in countries that border the Pacific basin.
Climate experts say a La Nina has been developing over the last few months.
It has affected the jet stream, which is the winds that drive weather systems across North America. Air pressure builds in the western United States, forcing the jet stream north.
This year, the low pressure systems that carry moist Pacific air have followed the jet stream north to hit British Columbia and Washington state, giving them record wet weather while the U.S. south-central area, the home of the winter wheat crop, has suffered drought. Last week, the Texas wheat crop was rated 89 percent poor to very poor.
Oklahoma’s situation is also rated severe to exceptional drought. These are important wheat growing states, but the biggest producer is Kansas and so far conditions have not been as bad there.
However, the Feb. 28 U.S. drought monitor map at www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html shows for the first time Kansas designated as abnormally dry or in moderate drought. Large parts of Nebraska are also designated moderate drought.
The La Nina is likely to keep pressure on the U.S. winter wheat crop and increase the volatility in wheat futures prices.
Early this week as this column was written, futures were falling, partly because of a forecast for showers later in the week, but some analysts expected the amounts would be too small to make a difference.
Given all this volatility, Canadian producers, involved in their own survivor quest, would do well to study the pricing options the Canadian Wheat Board has introduced in the last few years. As we have learned, grain price rallies tend to be short-lived and require quick action to benefit.
By understanding the board’s price contracts and using them, you’ll have the capacity to jump on a rally and maybe lock in a price that’s better than the year-long pool.
As for La Nina’s effects on Western Canada, there is a possibility of a cooler than normal spring.
Environment Canada has also forecast the potential for a drier than normal spring in northern and southern Alberta and above average moisture in northeastern Saskatchewan and northwestern Manitoba.
