Cold snap hits Prairies | Forecasters see a lengthy stretch of cold weather for Saskatchewan and Manitoba
People who live in the central and eastern Prairies shouldn’t expect a reprieve from the cold for the rest of the winter, say weather experts.
“Manitoba and Saskatchewan will continue colder than average by a long shot,” said Drew Lerner, president of World Weather Inc.
“Alberta, though, will probably have some near to above average temperatures.”
Brett Anderson, senior meteorologist with AccuWeather, said there could be a short-term break in the cold weather later this week, but Old Man Winter will be in a nasty mood for the second half of the month in Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
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The core of the cold weather system will shift further east into Manitoba and Ontario in February. He is forecasting near normal conditions for Saskatchewan and above normal conditions in western Alberta that month.
Anderson blames the miserable conditions on a strong and persistent high-pressure ridge centred over the Gulf of Alaska, which is forcing a northwest flow of chilly Arctic air into the prairie region.
The same system is blocking the flow of milder air from the Pacific Ocean from entering the Prairies.
The result is much cooler than normal weather for the entire Prairie region, especially Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
For example, the average temperature in Saskatoon for November and December was 4.5 C below normal.
“That is quite significant, no doubt about that,” said Anderson.
No daily records were set in Saskatoon but it was persistently cold, as was Winnipeg, where the average temperature for those two months was 3.8 C below normal.
Conditions were better in Calgary, where temperatures were 1.5 C below normal.
It has also been dry in the eastern Prairies. Saskatoon received 70 percent of its normal precipitation during November and December, while Winnipeg received 31 percent.
“That makes sense,” Anderson said.
“If it’s going to be cold, it’s going to be drier because cold air just doesn’t hold as much moisture as warmer air.”
It was a different story in Calgary, which received 200 percent of its normal precipitation during the first couple months of winter.
Anderson said winds tend to be out of the northeast in advance of the big areas of high pressure descending from the Arctic. That pushes the high-pressure systems into the foothills and the Rocky Mountains, where the air cools and comes down as snow in western Alberta.
“Further east, you don’t have that lift,” he said.
“It’s all pretty much flat, so it’s just cold, dry air for most of Saskatchewan and Manitoba.”
He is forecasting a continuation of above average snowfall in Alberta in January. It will be below average for the remainder of the Prairies, although Alberta clippers will likely deliver snow to southern Manitoba and southern Saskatchewan.
February looks to be another dry month for the eastern Prairies.
Lerner said the Arctic Oscillation went into a negative phase last week, which reinforces the cold weather prediction for the Prairie region.
He agreed with Anderson that Sask-atchewan and Manitoba will be dry for the remainder of winter.
The storms that have caused unusually wet conditions east of the Rocky Mountains in a region from Calgary through Red Deer to Grande Prairie should subside later in the winter, said Lerner.
