Revising numbers on Brazil’s massive soybean crop

WINNIPEG, (MarketsFarm) – There is one certainty when it comes to Brazil’s soybean crop for 2020/21 – it’s going to be massive. With the harvest well underway, a few recent projections have far exceeded the estimated 117.0 million tonnes produced in 2019/20.

The forecasts came out ahead of the next grain harvest survey from Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (Conab), Brazil’s version of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), on Feb. 11. Brazil’s soybean marketing year runs from February to January.

In January, Conab called for 122.23 million tonnes, which is almost two per cent higher compared its initial estimate from October.

The USDA attache in Brazil, Jenia Ustinova, upped her estimate to 124.5 million tonnes from the department’s Jan. 10 forecast of 123.0 million tonnes. Of note, the USDA also releases its next supply and demand report on Feb. 11.

Meanwhile, the private firm of Futures International (FI) issued its estimate of 123.16 million tonnes.

The amount of area harvested also varies, but are close to each other, with the USDA and its attaché having estimated 36.90 million hectares. FI estimated 36.88 million and Conab was at 36.80 million hectares. In October, Conab estimated 36.57 million acres, almost two per cent more than in 2019/20.

Yield estimates were also close, with the attaché forecasting 3.374 kilograms per hectare, the USDA at 3.333, Conab 3.322, and FI 3.340. Back in October, Conab called for 3.292 kg/ha, which was already above the previous year’s yield of 3.206.

With increased production in Brazil and a drop in the United States, the former has become the world’s largest soybean producing country.

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