Ag Canada issues October outlook report

WINNIPEG (MarketsFarm) – Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) issued its October Outlook for Principal Field Crops on Friday, with some revisions compared to the September report.

One of the most notable numbers from AAFC was the drop in 2019/20 corn exports, which were estimated to be about 1.5 million tonnes. That’s more than 20 percent less compared to the September estimate.

Also for that crop year, the carryout was lowered by more than 18 per cent to 1.8 million tonnes.

The carryout for 2019/20 canola was revised as well, by nearly 4.5 per cent to 4.7 million tonnes.

For 2019/20, the October report placed canola production at 19.4 million tonnes. That’s down five percent from the previous year.

Canola exports were estimated to be 9.2 million tonnes, which is 1.1 million tonnes below the five-year average. That’s largely due to the loss of the China market, as increased exports elsewhere and lower Australian canola and European rapeseed production provided some cushioning.

As for wheat excluding durum, production was pegged in the October report to increase by four percent to 27.5 million tonnes. The report noted the revision was based on more acres seeded countered by lower average yields and higher abandonment for winter wheat.

Wheat exports were lowered by four percent to 19.0 million tonnes, based on greater global competition from other exporting countries incurring larger production.

For durum, October’s report dropped production by 13 percent from 2018/19 to 5.0 million tonnes. That’s due to 21 percent fewer acres, but higher yields made up for part of the decline.

The durum carryout was forecast to be 1.0 million tonnes for 2019/20, for a 40 percent drop from the previous year.

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