Ag Canada increases wheat production forecast

Winnipeg – Canadian wheat production in 2019/20 is forecast to come in at 500,000 tonnes above an earlier forecast, according to updated supply/demand tables from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada released Aug. 21. Wheat ending stocks were also raised, while adjustments to the canola tables led a slight reduction to the still record-large carryout forecast.

Total Canadian wheat production for 2019/20 is now forecast at 32.500 million tonnes, which compares with the July forecast of 32.000 million and the year-ago level of 31.769 million tonnes. If realized, that would mark the second-largest Canadian wheat crop on record.

Of the total, durum production for 2019/20 was raised to 5.100 million tonnes, from 5.000 million in July. That compares with the 5.745 million tonnes grown the previous year.

Total Canadian wheat ending stocks for 2019/20 were raised to 5.500 million tonnes, which compares with the July forecast of 5.100 million and the 2018/19 carryout of an estimated 5.200 million.

Agriculture Canada left its canola production estimate for 2019/20 unchanged at 18.575 million tonnes, but raised its old crop export forecast slightly. As a result, ending stocks for both 2018/19 and 2019/20 were tightened to 3.700 million and 3.775 million tonnes respectively. Both would still be record large, comparing to the previous record of 3.008 million set in 2013/14.

Statistics Canada releases its first survey-based production estimates for the 2019/20 crop year on Aug. 28.

August estimates for Canadian major crops supply and demand: in million metric tonnes.

Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

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