El Nino dies and births higher prices

Weather is running the markets. With the WASDE out of the way for July, a hotter, drier forecast for the American Midwest send grain traders into a bullish stance, and prices rose for the end of the week.

The United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration declared El Nino dead this morning. Their Australian counterparts suggested it would be the case a couple of weeks ago. With that comes more uncertainty about the remainder of the growing season. Forecasters suggest fairly normal summer conditions for the rest of the season. So, a lack of rain the U.S. Midwest followed by earlier than recently experienced fall frosts, for that region. And that won’t bode well for delayed crops.

Soybeans were up on Chicago’s July futures market in Chicago by 10.5 cents per bushel, breaking past the US $9 mark, finishing at $9.06-75 per bushel for July. August was up 14.25 cents, ending at $9.13-25.

That rubbed off on canola, which was up on the ICE futures markets, with July ending at C $448.10, up $2 per tonne. November was up $2.90, reaching $450.10. In the countryside, elevators in northwestern Saskatchewan were offering $424.28, up $3.50 per tonne, about $9.63 per bu.

Hard red spring wheat at the elevator in southeastern Saskatchewan was up slightly over yesterday. It was being bought for $224.78 per tonne, or $6.11 per bu., based on pricing analysis from the PDQ system operated by Alberta Wheat. Canada prairie spring prices were also up at elevators across the Prairies by between $2.06 and $2.10 per tonne, being purchased in a range between $209 and $229.

The dry weather news for the Midwest sent American corn futures markets up 10 cents for September, ending above US $4.50 per bu., finishing the day at $4.54-25 in Chicago. The basis also moved higher as grain companies to get farmers delivering in the Midwest.

 

Name / Contract High Low Last Change Settlement
Canola Jul 2019 (updated 4:05PM(CST) on 7/11/2019) 448.10 448.10 448.10 2.00 448.10
Canola Nov 2019 (updated 1:19PM(CST) on 7/12/2019) 451.30 444.50 450.10 2.90 450.10
Canola Jan 2020 (updated 1:19PM(CST) on 7/12/2019) 458.30 452.60 457.40 2.90 457.40
Canola Mar 2020 (updated 1:14PM(CST) on 7/12/2019) 465.20 459.50 465.20 3.90 465.20
Canola May 2020 (updated 1:14PM(CST) on 7/12/2019) 471.10 465.30 471.10 4.00 471.10
Soybean Jul 2019 906.75 902.25 906.75 10.50 903.00
Soybean Aug 2019 913.75 895.50 913.25 14.25 911.75
Soybean Sep 2019 919.50 901.25 919.00 14.00 917.75
Soybean Nov 2019 932.25 913.25 931.50 14.25 930.25
Soybean Jan 2020 943.75 925.25 943.00 14.25 941.75
Soybean Mar 2020 952.25 934.50 952.00 13.50 950.50
Soybean Meal Jul 2019 313.30 312.60 313.30 1.70 312.60
Soybean Meal Aug 2019 315.00 311.30 314.80 2.40 314.60
Soybean Meal Sep 2019 316.70 312.90 316.50 2.50 316.40
Soybean Oil Jul 2019 28.11 27.75 28.11 0.04 28.11
Soybean Oil Aug 2019 28.42 27.88 28.31 0.13 28.30
Soybean Oil Sep 2019 28.54 28.01 28.43 0.14 28.42
Corn Jul 2019 457.00 447.75 449.50 1.75 449.75
Corn Sep 2019 455.75 441.75 454.25 10.00 455.50
Corn Dec 2019 460.75 445.50 459.25 11.25 460.00
Corn Mar 2020 466.50 451.75 465.00 10.50 466.00
Corn May 2020 468.00 454.50 466.75 9.75 468.00
Oats Jul 2019 281.00 281.00 281.00 unch 281.00
Oats Sep 2019 282.50 277.50 281.50 3.25 281.25
Oats Dec 2019 284.75 278.75 283.75 3.00 283.25
Oats Mar 2020 287.00 278.00 287.00 3.25 283.75
Oats May 2020 285.50 285.50 285.50 3.25 282.25
Wheat Jul 2019 538.50 535.00 536.25 unch 536.25
Wheat Sep 2019 525.75 516.75 523.00 1.50 524.25
Wheat Dec 2019 536.50 527.75 535.00 2.25 535.75
Wheat Mar 2020 548.25 540.00 547.50 2.75 547.75
Wheat May 2020 553.25 544.75 553.25 2.75 553.25
Spring Wheat Jul 2019 535.00 532.50 535.00 12.50 535.00
Spring Wheat Sep 2019 546.50 537.75 543.25 2.00 543.25
Spring Wheat Dec 2019 560.00 551.75 556.25 1.75 556.25
Spring Wheat Mar 2020 574.25 568.25 570.75 1.75 570.75
Spring Wheat May 2020 581.00 576.75 579.00 1.75 579.00
Hard Red Wheat Jul 2019 461.25 439.00 461.25 unch 461.25
Hard Red Wheat Sep 2019 469.00 458.00 467.25 5.75 468.25
Hard Red Wheat Dec 2019 487.75 477.00 486.75 5.50 487.25
Hard Red Wheat Mar 2020 505.50 496.00 505.00 4.75 505.25
Hard Red Wheat May 2020 517.50 508.50 517.00 4.00 515.25
Live Cattle (Pit) Aug 2019 108.48 108.48 108.48 0.60 108.48
Live Cattle (Pit) Oct 2019 109.98 109.98 109.98 0.65 109.98
Live Cattle (Pit) Dec 2019 114.23 114.23 114.23 0.45 114.23
Feeder Cattle (Pit) Aug 2019 141.60 141.60 141.60 -1.03 141.60
Feeder Cattle (Pit) Sep 2019 142.55 142.55 142.55 -0.72 142.55
Feeder Cattle (Pit) Oct 2019 142.85 142.85 142.85 -0.58 142.85
Lean Hogs (Pit) Jul 2019 71.05 71.05 71.05 -0.55 71.05
Lean Hogs (Pit) Aug 2019 80.65 80.65 80.65 1.48 80.65
Lean Hogs (Pit) Oct 2019 73.23 73.23 73.23 1.63 73.23
Canadian Dollar Jul 2019 0.7682 0.7666 0.7673 0.0022 0.7673
Crude Oil WTI Aug 2019 60.74 59.93 60.23 0.03 60.23

Prices updated at 1:20PM(CST) on 7/12/2019

 

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