ICE canola weekly: rain in the forecast

WINNIPEG, June 19 (MarketsFarm) – Forecasts of rain for Western Canada will certainly help canola in terms of growing this year, said David Derwin of PI Financial in Winnipeg, Man.

“I spoke with several farmers from across the Prairies who said we got some good rains, a few who didn’t, but by in large, it’s good and the forecast is for showers and thundershowers over the next week or so,” Derwin commented.

He also noted that the end of June and the beginning of July is quite often a peak time for pricing, and it could be prudent to bump up resistance levels for canola on the Intercontinental Exchange and soybeans on the Chicago Board of Trade.

Another element Derwin pointed out, has been “too much attention is being paid every week on the (United States Department of Agriculture’s) crop progress report and the story gets spun out.”

He acknowledged the markets won’t be finished with the weather concerns, but said U.S. farmers made significant progress with their corn planting.

As of June 16, about 92 per cent of corn was planted, up from 83 per cent as of June 9. The five-average is 100 per cent, according to the USDA.

“Pretty much everything has been planted and the emergence looks good,” Derwin said.

However, soybeans have continued to lag behind he said. The latest crop progress report stated 77 per cent of soybeans were in the ground, up from 60 per cent the previous week. The five-year average is 93 per cent.

Derwin added other factors as well, including the U.S./China trade war, the huge soybean crops in Brazil and Argentina, and a large global carryover.

“It’s balancing things out a bit,” he said, noting prices had been too high and “the elastic was stretched a little too much.”

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