Ag Canada predicts huge increase in canola ending stocks

Winnipeg – Canadian canola carryout stocks are forecast to rise to a record 5.300 million tonnes by the end of the 2019/20 (Aug/Jul) marketing year, more than doubling the previous five-year average, according to updated estimates from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s market analysis division.

While the agency expects total canola production to decline to 18.900 million tonnes in 2019/20, from 20.343 million in the current marketing yeear, it also forecasts a sharp reduction in exports.

Citing the trade dispute with China, Agriculture Canada said there was a “high degree of uncertainty” to the export forecast. Total canola exports for 2019/20 are forecast at only 8.000 million tonnes, which compares with an estimated 9.300 million in the current marketing year and 10.726 million in 2017/18.

Canola ending stocks for 2018/19 are forecast at 3.900 million tonnes, which compares with an earlier estimate of 3.500 million. That would mark the new record on its own, and compares with the previous five-year average of 2.303 million tonnes.

Total wheat ending stocks for 2019/20 are also expected to be large, at an estimated 7.100 million tonnes. That compares with an estimated 5.800 million tonnes for 2018/19.

May estimates for Canadian major crops supply and demand: in million metric tonnes.

Source: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

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