USDA raises corn stock projections, lowers soybeans

Winnipeg – Updated supply/demand estimates from the United States Department of Agriculture came largely in line with expectations, with larger U.S. and world corn and wheat stocks and slight downward revisions to the soybean carryout numbers.

Expected U.S. corn ending stocks for the current marketing year were raised by 200 million bushels, to 2.035 billion bushels, in the USDA’s April World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. The revision was largely linked to cuts to expected feed use, exports, and demand from ethanol sector. The corn carryout compares with the 2.140 billion bushel corn ending stocks the previous year.

World corn ending stocks were raised by about 5.5 million tonnes, to 314 million tonnes. Argentina’s crop was increased to 47 million tonnes, from 46 million. Brazil’s corn crop was pegged at 97 million tonnes, which was up by 1.5 million from the March forecast.

U.S. soybean ending stocks for the current marketing year were revised slightly lower by the USDA, to 895 million bushels. That compares with the March estimate of 900 million, but was still roughly double the 2017/18 level of 438 million. U.S. soybean exports for the current marketing year were left unchanged at 1.875 billion bushels.

World soybean ending stocks were pegged at 107 million tonnes, which was down slightly from the March estimate. World soybean carryout in 2017/18 came in at 95.6 million tonnes.

The USDA raised its estimate for Brazil’s soybean crop to 117 million tonnes, from 116.5 million in March. That would compare with last year’s crop of 122 million tonnes. Argentina’s 2018/19 soybean production was left unchanged at 55 million tonnes, which compares with the 37.8 million grown in 2017/18.

The USDA pegged U.S. wheat ending stocks for the current marketing year at 1.087 billion bushels, which was up by 32 million from the March estimate but still below the 1.099 billion bushel wheat carryout in 2017/18.

World wheat ending stocks were raised to 341.29 million tonnes by the USDA, from 336.23 million in March. That compares with the 370.13 million tonne carryout the previous year.

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