Canadian wheat ending stocks for 2018/19 (Aug/Jul) will be slightly larger than earlier thought, according to updated supply/demand tables from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. Meanwhile, the carryout projections for both canola and peas were revised lower in the latest monthly report, released Dec. 20, 2018.
Taking into account the adjusted production estimates from Statistics Canada, released Dec. 6, Agriculture Canada’s market analysis branch now forecasts wheat ending stocks for 2018/19 at 6.200 million tonnes, which was up by 300,000 from the November estimate. Canola stocks are forecast at 2.400 million tonnes, which would be down from the earlier estimate of 2.500 million and the 2017/18 revised level of 2.506 million tonnes.
Projected canola exports for 2018/19 were pegged at 11.000 million tonnes, which was down from the November estimate of 11.500 million, but above the 10.723 million exported in 2017/18.
Total ending stocks of the major grains and oilseeds for 2018/19 were lowered to 12.815 million tonnes, from an earlier forecast of 12.910 million. Grain and oilseed ending stocks for the 2017/18 marketing year, which ended July 31, were pegged at 14.019 million tonnes.
Total pulse and special crop ending stocks for 2018/19 are now pegged at 1.805 million tonnes, which compares with the November estimate of 1.975 million and the 2017/18 carryout of 1.663 million tonnes. Of that total, pea ending stocks for the current crop year were revised lower to 745,000 tonnes, from 900,000. Pea ending stocks for 2017/18 came in at 600,000 tonnes.
December estimates for Canadian 2018/19 (Aug/Jul) and 2017/18 major crops supply and demand. In million metric tonnes.