Ag Canada ups canola carryout forecast sharply

Canadian canola carryout stocks at the end of the current marketing year (2018/19) will be considerably larger than an earlier estimate, according to updated supply/demand tables from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, released on Oct. 19.

Agriculture Canada’s market analysis branch forecast canola ending stocks for 2018/19 at 2.500 million tonnes, which would be double the September estimate, but in line with the 2017/18 carryout of 2.391 million tonnes.

Wheat ending stocks for 2018/19 were raised by 600,000 tonnes, to 5.600 million. That compares with the 2017/18 wheat carryout of 6.173 million tonnes.

The ending stocks adjustments were largely linked to updated production estimates released by Statistics Canada in September.

Total ending stocks of the major grains and oilseeds for 2018/19 were lowered to 12.545 million tonnes, from an earlier forecast of 10.345 million. Grain and oilseed ending stocks for the 2017/18 marketing year, which ended July 31, were pegged at 13.904 million tonnes.

Total pulse and special crop ending stocks for 2018/19 are now pegged at 1.760 million tonnes, which compares with the September estimate of 1.540 million and the 2017/18 carryout of 1.663 million tonnes.

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