Ag Canada raises canola carryout forecast

Winnipeg – Canadian canola carryout supplies for the upcoming 2018/19 (Aug/Jul) marketing year will be larger than earlier thought, according to updated supply/demand tables from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, released on July 19, 2018.

Agriculture Canada’s market analysis branch forecast canola ending stocks on July 31, 2019, at 2.250 million tonnes, which would be up by 550,000 tonnes from the June forecast. Ending stocks for the 2017/18 crop year were left unchanged at 2.700 million.

Wheat ending stocks for 2018/19 were lowered by 300,000 tonnes, to 5.800 million. That compares with the 2017/18 projected wheat carryout of 6.100 million tonnes.

Pea and lentil supply/demand projections also saw some adjustment in the updated tables, with downward revisions to the new crop stocks projections for both pulse crops.

Total ending stocks of the major grains and oilseeds for 2018/19 were raised to 13.105 million tonnes, from an earlier forecast of 12.990 million. Grain and oilseed ending stocks for the current 2017/18 marketing year were pegged at 14.545 million tonnes.

Total pulse and special crop ending stocks for 2018/19 are now pegged at 1.535 million tonnes, which compares with the June estimate of 1.705 million and the 2017/18 estimate of 1.625 million tonnes.

July estimates for Canadian 2018/19 (Aug/Jul) and 2017/18 major crops supply and demand. In million metric tonnes.


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