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Larger Canadian canola carryout to tighten

WINNIPEG (CNS Canada) — Canadian canola ending stocks for the current 2017-18 marketing year are forecast to be much larger than earlier thought, while new crop supplies should tighten, according to the latest supply and demand tables from Agriculture Canada, released May 24.

Agriculture Canada’s market analysis branch pegged canola ending stocks for 2017-18 at 2.5 million tonnes. That would be up by 500,000 tonnes from the April estimate.

Meanwhile, stocks at July 31, 2019, are forecast at 1.5 million tonnes, which would be well below the 2.25 million forecast a month ago.

Total canola production for 2018-19 is now forecast at 19.15 million tonnes, which compares to an earlier estimate of 21.7 million and the year-ago level of 21.31 million tonnes.

Anticipated total wheat production for 2018-19 was raised to 31.3 million, from 30 million in April. Canada grew 29.98 million tonnes of wheat in 2017-18.

Total ending stocks of the major grains and oilseeds for 2018-19 were lowered to 12.96 million tonnes, from an earlier forecast of 13.715 million. Grain and oilseed ending stocks for the current 2017-18 marketing year were pegged at 14.26 million tonnes, which were up from the April forecast of 13.8 million.

Total pulse and special crop ending stocks for 2018-19 are now pegged at 2.2 million tonnes, which compares with the April estimate of 2.05 million and the 2017-18 estimate of 1.93 million tonnes. Pea and lentil production for 2018-19 are both forecast to be up from earlier estimates, but still below 2017-18 levels.

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