Agriculture Canada raises forecast for grains-oilseed ending stocks

(million tonnes) total supply exports domestic use ending stocks

WINNIPEG — Ending stocks of Canada’s major grain and oilseeds for 2014-15 will likely be larger than earlier forecasts, according to updated supply-demand tables released by Agriculture Canada’s market analysis branch Dec. 19.

However, ending stocks of pulse crops will be a little smaller than expected.

The department adjusted its supply and demand figures to reflect the Dec. 4 Statistics Canada crop production report that increased the estimated size of the harvest.

The larger supplies prompted Agriculture Canada to adjust its domestic use, exports and ending stocks forecasts.

It now puts total ending stocks for all the major grains and oilseeds at 10.490 million tonnes by the end of the 2014-15 crop year, up from the November estimate of 8.495 million.

Total ending stocks at the end of 2013-14 were 16.974 million tonnes.

The eight major grains and oilseeds include canola, flaxseed, soybeans, wheat, oats, barley, corn and rye.

Projected exports of the major grains and oilseeds for 2014-15 are 42.560 million tonnes, up from the November estimate of 41.310 million. Total exports in 2013-14 were estimated at 43.421 million tonnes.

Total domestic use of the various grains and oilseeds for 2014-15 was revised to 39.592 million tonnes from 38.901 million tonnes in November. That compares with the 2013-14 estimate of 39.950 million tonnes.

The canola carryout was revised up to 1.45 million tonnes for the November outlook of 900,000 tonnes.

Exports and domestic use were revised up but not enough to completely offset the increase in supply. Canola exports are now forecast at a record 9.2 million tonnes, up 800,000 tonnes from the November outlook. That beats the previous export record of 9.094 million tonnes set last year.

Pulse and special crop ending stocks are forecast to be slightly tighter than earlier estimates.

Agriculture Canada pegged 2014-15 specialty crop ending stocks at 345,000 tonnes, down from the November estimate of 370,000 tonnes. Ending stocks for 2013-14 were pegged at 628,000 tonnes.

The seven major specialty and pulse crops are dry peas, lentils, dry beans, chickpeas, mustard seed, canaryseed and sunflower seed.

Total exports of the seven major specialty and pulse crops are expected to be 5.280 million tonnes in 2014-15, up from the last estimate of 5.2 million tonnes and 2013-14 exports of 5.237 million tonnes.

Reflecting the Statistics Canada Dec. 4 report, Agriculture Canada pegged 2014-15 total Canadian pulse production at 6.069 million tonnes, down slightly from the November estimate of 6.110 million. In 2013-14, pulse production totalled 6.880 million tonnes.

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