The Weather Network’s fall forecast is for more of the same.
“When we’re looking across the Prairies, we can pretty much divide them in half when it comes to temperature,” said meteorologist Dayna Vettese.
The eastern Prairies can expect a continuation of this summer’s cool conditions in September, October and November.
East-central and southeastern Saskatchewan as well as central and southern Manitoba will be cool.
In the west it should be near normal.
“The closer you get to the (British Columbia) border the better chance you have of seeing temperatures slightly above normal,” she said.
In particular, west-central Alberta and the upper Peace River Valley should have a warm fall.
Vettese doesn’t expect to see the next big killing frost until late September or early October.
Precipitation is forecast to be near normal for most of the Prairies with the exception of a swath in east-central Saskatchewan and central Manitoba north of Winnipeg, where above normal rain and snowfall is anticipated.
The fall weather will be influenced by current “pseudo El Nino” conditions. The El Nino Southern Oscillation pattern is in a neutral phase but definitely leaning toward the development of a weak El Nino.
It has led to a big high pressure ridge that is bringing warm and dry conditions to B.C. and an area of low pressure east of that, which is causing unsettled conditions for the eastern Prairies and Ontario.
Those conditions will intensify as the El Nino develops, which is why The Weather Network’s winter preview forecast calls for below normal temperatures in Saskatchewan and Manitoba.
“We don’t expect it to be as harsh as last winter, but we are expecting it to be slightly below normal,” said Vettese.
The only region that might receive a reprieve from Old Man Winter is western Alberta near the Rocky Mountains.
The network will release its official winter forecast at the end of November.