Weather drives spring wheat up 6.7 pct this week

Wheat futures rose again Friday, supported by concerns about the U.S. spring wheat crop, pockets of production problems around the world and short covering.

Like Thursday it was the Chicago contract that led the way higher with July up more than 2.5 percent with funds covering short positions.

The Minneapolis spring wheat July contact closed up 1.6 percent today.

From the close June 9 to today, July Minneapolis rose US40.5 cents a bushel or 6.7 percent.

The PDQInfo.ca website said No. 1 CWRS 13.5 wheat ranged from C$7.18 in western Manitoba to $7.66 in northern Alberta.

Reports of disappointing harvest results from the U.S. winter wheat crop also supported the market.

Wheat is also getting modest support from hot dry weather in Western Europe, a drought area in central Ukraine and below normal rain in Western Australia

CANOLA

July canola closed at $514.10, down 50 cents from the previous week.

November canola closed at $488.20, down $6.70 on the week.

The loonie rose about USone cent over the week, weighing down canola.

WEATHER

Farmers and markets will be watching closely to see how this week’s rain improved the condition of the spring wheat crop. The USDA weekly condition rating report will come out after the market closes on Monday afternoon.

It looks like it will be drier through the weekend generally across the Prairies. The best chance for showers is in the border area between Manitoba, Saskatchewan and North Dakota.

U.S. government weather forecasts show the June 22-26 period in the Dakotas and Montana drier than normal, which if true would keep the crop there in stress, although the forecast also shows it cooler than normal in that time frame.

Prairie farmers will be looking for warmer weather to push crop development, which is lagging in many areas.

The longer term forecasts for Midwest corn and soybean areas show good prospects for rain.

WEATHER MARKETS

The current strong price for spring wheat is being celebrated for creating pricing opportunities.

Not to throw cold water on the good feelings, but it should be noted Weather markets can be short lived, expecially once the funds have covered their shorts.

That last time Minneapolis prices were up above US$6, on a continuous chart, was in July 2015. By September the price was was down below $5.

In 2014 the market topped out above $7.50 in May and by fall it had lost $2.

CANOLA SUPPLY

The canola old crop basis appears to be improving. ICE Canada Futures basis benchmark in the par region around Saskatoon has moved into plus territory at +$1.91 per tonne.

Agriculture Canada’s latest forecast for current year ending stocks is a tight 600,000 tonnes.

CANOLA CRUSH

The weekly crush increased again with 173,306 tonnes processed to June 14, up 8.7 percent from the week before and the most in six weeks.

However, that represented just over 81 percent of capacity, still behind the average for the year of 88.5 percent.

The total crush for the crop year is slightly more than eight million tonnes, up from 7.13 million last year at the same point.

EXPORTS

Canola exports fell back again to only 164,100 tonnes, down from 205,900 the week before, figures from the Canadian Grain Commission show.

Wheat exports for the week rose to 333,700 tonnes, up from 244,100 the week before. It was also a good week for durum exports at 118,600 tonnes, up from 28,100 tonnes the week before.

Total exports of all grains for the week were 659,400 tonnes, similar to the previous week’s 654,700 tonnes.

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York rose 28 cents to US$44.74 per barrel.

The Canadian dollar in the afternoon was trading at US75.62 cents, up from $75.31 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.322.

Amazon’s announcement that it is in a $13.7 billion deal to buy Whole Foods, the upscale organic grocer, shook the stock price of major retailers involved in the grocery business, including Wal-Mart, Loblaw and Empire Co., which owns Sobeys and Safeway in Canada

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed up 31.97 points, or 0.21 percent, at 15,192.39.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 24.38 points, or 0.11 percent, to 21,384.28, the S&P 500 gained 0.69 points, or 0.03 percent, to 2,433.15 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 13.74 points, or 0.22 percent, to 6,151.76

For the week the TXS composite was down 1.8 percent, the week, Dow was up 0.5 percent, the S&P 500 almost unchanged, and Nasdaq was down 0.9 percent.

 

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Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Jul 2017  514.10 +1.10 +0.21%

Canola Nov 2017  488.20 +2.30 +0.47%

Canola Jan 2018 494.10 +2.20 +0.45%

Canola Mar 2018  499.70 +2.20 +0.44%

Canola May 2018  501.90 unch 0.00%

 

Milling Wheat Jul 2017 272.00 +4.00 +1.49%

Milling Wheat Oct 2017 262.00 +3.00 +1.16%

Milling Wheat Dec 2017 265.00 +3.00 +1.15%

 

Durum Wheat Jul 2017 278.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Oct 2017 266.00 unch 0.00%

Durum Wheat Dec 2017 270.00 unch 0.00%

 

Barley Jul 2017 138.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Oct 2017 140.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Dec 2017 140.00 unch 0.00%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago

Soybeans Jul 2017 939.00 +4.25 +0.45%

Soybeans Aug 2017 943.25 +4.50 +0.48%

Soybeans Sep 2017 945.00 +5.00 +0.53%

Soybeans Nov 2017 950.00 +6.00 +0.64%

Soybeans Jan 2018 957.00 +5.75 +0.60%

Soybeans Mar 2018 962.25 +5.50 +0.57%

 

Soybean Meal Jul 2017 300.90 +0.30 +0.10%

Soybean Meal Aug 2017 302.70 +0.30 +0.10%

Soybean Meal Sep 2017 304.40 +0.30 +0.10%

 

Soybean Oil Jul 2017 33.11 +0.37 +1.13%

Soybean Oil Aug 2017 33.24 +0.37 +1.13%

Soybean Oil Sep 2017 33.37 +0.39 +1.18%

 

Corn Jul 2017 384.00 +4.50 +1.19%

Corn Sep 2017 392.00 +4.50 +1.16%

Corn Dec 2017 402.00 +4.25 +1.07%

Corn Mar 2018 411.25 +4.50 +1.11%

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Corn May 2018 416.50 +4.25 +1.03%

 

Oats Jul 2017 269.25 +8.00 +3.06%

Oats Sep 2017 264.75 +11.50 +4.54%

Oats Dec 2017 252.50 +7.00 +2.85%

Oats Mar 2018 248.50 +4.75 +1.95%

Oats May 2018 248.75 +4.50 +1.84%

 

Wheat Jul 2017 465.25 +11.50 +2.53%

Wheat Sep 2017 481.50 +12.50 +2.67%

Wheat Dec 2017 502.75 +12.25 +2.50%

Wheat Mar 2018 518.75 +11.50 +2.27%

Wheat May 2018 530.50 +11.00 +2.12%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Jul 2017 642.75 +10.25 +1.62%

Spring Wheat Sep 2017 647.00 +7.50 +1.17%

Spring Wheat Dec 2017 644.25 +8.50 +1.34%

Spring Wheat Mar 2018 642.50 +9.25 +1.46%

Spring Wheat May 2018 638.25 +9.50 +1.51%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2017 473.50 +8.25 +1.77%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2017 491.50 +8.25 +1.71%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2017 517.00 +8.50 +1.67%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2018 529.75 +8.75 +1.68%

Hard Red Wheat May 2018 538.50 +7.25 +1.36%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound (rounded to two decimal places)

Live Cattle (P) Jun 2017 121.70 -0.80 -0.65%

Live Cattle (P) Aug 2017 118.18 +0.68 +0.58%

Live Cattle (P) Oct 2017 115.35 +0.65 +0.57%

 

Feeder Cattle (P) Aug 2017 147.88 +0.81 +0.55%

Feeder Cattle (P) Sep 2017 147.35 +0.95 +0.65%

Feeder Cattle (P) Oct 2017 145.82 +0.97 +0.67%

 

Lean Hogs (P) Jul 2017 82.32 +0.27 +0.33%

Lean Hogs (P) Aug 2017 79.12 +0.20 +0.25%

Lean Hogs (P) Oct 2017 66.78 -0.42 -0.62%

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