Strong crush and exports support canola futures

Canola posted another modest rally on Friday, supported by a stronger soybean complex.

A rising pace of canola exports and crush also helped support canola, which closed at $496.70, up $1.50 in the November contract.

Also the slow pace of the canola harvest in northern Alberta supported the price.

Alberta Agriculture said that as of Oct. 3 only about 13 percent of the canola crop was harvested in northwestern Alberta. About 44-45 percent of canola was harvested in northeastern and Peace regions. Southern regions are much more advanced.

Compared to the previous Friday, November canola was up $4.30 per tonne.

The Canadian dollar edged higher today, but is trading below US80 cents, well below the high set just a few weeks ago.

There is a small potential for light showers in a large part of the Prairies on Saturday and quite a bit cooler temperatures on Sunday before a recovery on Monday.

Rain this week in the U.S. Midwest has stalled harvest there. The moisture helped conditions for seeding winter wheat crops.

DELIVERIES

Producers delivered 581,100 tonnes of canola to elevators in the week to Oct. 1, up from 497,900 tonnes the week before, according to the weekly Canadian Grain Commission report. Last year in the same week, deliveries of canola were 587,600 tonnes.

Deliveries for the crop year stand at 3.53 million tonnes, up from last year’s 3.35 million at the same point and 3.28 million in 2015.

CRUSH

The Canadian Oilseed Processors Association said members crushed 197,153 tonnes of canola in the week to Oct. 4, up 6.7 percent from the week before. That represented a strong capacity use of 89 percent.

To date the crush is 1.48 million tonnes still behind last year’s pace of 1.56 million tonnes.

EXPORTS

Exports usually start to seriously ramp up at this point in the fall, and this year is no exception. Total exports in the week to Oct. 1 were 941,300 tonnes, up from 837,300 the week before.

Canola exports totaled 338,400 tonnes, up from 280,700 tonnes the week before.

The total to date for canola is now higher than last year at the same point.

The total is 1.397 million tonnes, up from 1.252 million last year.

Wheat exports were also solid at 301,400 tonnes, similar to last week’s 306,500 tonnes.

The total to date for wheat is 2.726 million tonnes, up from 2.254 million last year.

The number of ships scheduled to arrive at West Coast ports this week is expected to increase, signaling good export demand.

BRAZIL SEEDING

Soybean planting in Brazil was 5.6 percent complete as of Friday, consultancy Safras & Mercado said, down from 10.4 percent at this time last year as dry weather conditions for most of September delayed seeding. However, the figure was in line with a five-year average of 5.3 percent, Safras said.

Several soybean-growing regions of Brazil got rain in the past week. Southern regions are expected to get another dose in the coming week.

WHEAT

Minneapolis spring wheat rose on ideas the market was due for a rebound after the December contract dropped to $6.06 this week, its lowest since mid-June. The contract stayed mostly above its 200-day moving average on Friday after dipping below the mark earlier this week.

Next week the market will adjust positions in advance of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly supply-demand reports on Oct. 12.

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were down $1.50 at US$49.29 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US79.75 cents, up from 79.56 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.2539.

U.S. stock market indexes set new record highs during the week on economic optimism and hopes for tax cutting legislation. For the week, the TSX composite rose about 0.6 percent, the S&P 500 rose 1.2 percent, the Dow added 1.6 percent and the Nasdaq gained 1.5 percent.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Nov 17   496.70s   +1.50   +0.30%

Canola Jan 18   502.10s   +1.40   +0.28%

Canola Mar 18   507.00s   +2.00   +0.40%

Canola May 18   509.40s   +1.90   +0.37%

Canola Jul 18   510.30s   +2.00   +0.39%

ADVERTISMENT

 

Milling Wheat Oct 17   233.00s   +5.00   +2.19%

Milling Wheat Dec 17   235.00s   +5.00   +2.17%

Milling Wheat Mar 18   241.00s   +5.00   +2.12%

 

Durum Wheat Oct 17   279.00s   unch   unch

Durum Wheat Dec 17   281.00s   unch   unch

Durum Wheat Mar 18   286.00s   unch   unch

 

Barley Oct 17   145.00s   unch   unch

Barley Dec 17   148.00s   unch   unch

Barley Mar 18   151.00s   unch   unch

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.

 

Chicago

Soybeans Nov 17   972-2s   +4-0   +0.41%

Soybeans Jan 18   983-0s   +4-0   +0.41%

Soybeans Mar 18   992-2s   +4-2   +0.43%

Soybeans May 18   1001-2s   +4-2   +0.43%

Soybeans Jul 18   1009-0s   +4-4   +0.45%

 

Soybean Meal Oct 17   315.0s   +2.1   +0.67%

Soybean Meal Dec 17   319.2s   +2.3   +0.73%

Soybean Meal Jan 18   321.4s   +2.4   +0.75%

 

Soybean Oil Oct 17   32.71s   -0.06   -0.18%

Soybean Oil Dec 17   32.95s   -0.05   -0.15%

Soybean Oil Jan 18   33.12s -0.06   -0.18%

 

Corn Dec 17   350-0s   +0-4   +0.14%

Corn Mar 18   363-2s   +0-6   +0.21%

Corn May 18   372-0s   +0-4   +0.13%

Corn Jul 18   379-6s   +0-4   +0.13%

Corn Sep 18   386-6s   +0-2   +0.06%

 

Oats Dec 17   251-0s   +3-6   +1.52%

Oats Mar 18   254-4s   +3-2   +1.29%

ADVERTISMENT

Oats May 18   253-2s   +3-2   +1.30%

Oats Jul 18   249-4s   +0-6   +0.30%

Oats Sep 18   249-4s   +0-6   +0.30%

 

Wheat Dec 17   443-4s   +2-6   +0.62%

Wheat Mar 18   462-6s   +3-2   +0.71%

Wheat May 18   476-6s   +3-0   +0.63%

Wheat Jul 18   490-4s   +4-4   +0.93%

Wheat Sep 18   505-6s   +4-6   +0.95%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Dec 17   623-6s   +8-2   +1.34%

Spring Wheat Mar 18   636-6s   +7-6   +1.23%

Spring Wheat May 18   643-4s   +8-0   +1.26%

Spring Wheat Jul 18   647-2s   +7-6   +1.21%

Spring Wheat Sep 18   644-2s   +5-2   +0.82%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Dec 17   436-6s   +2-4   +0.58%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 18   454-6s   +2-6   +0.61%

Hard Red Wheat May 18   468-6s   +3-0   +0.64%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 18   486-6s   +3-2   +0.67%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 18   505-4s   +3-0   +0.60%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade

Live Cattle Oct 17   111.025s   +0.875   +0.79%

Live Cattle Dec 17   116.925s   +0.875   +0.75%

Live Cattle Feb 18   120.725s   +0.950   +0.79%

 

Feeder Cattle Oct 17   153.950s   +0.375   +0.24%

Feeder Cattle Nov 17   155.750s   +0.900   +0.58%

Feeder Cattle Jan 18   153.700s   +1.125   +0.74%

 

Lean Hogs Oct 17   59.175s   -1.750   -2.87%

Lean Hogs Dec 17   60.925s   -1.875   -2.99%

Lean Hogs Feb 18   66.550s   -1.050   -1.55%

 

ADVERTISMENT