Markets: Bearish USDA report has modest negative impact on crop prices

The good news from today’s bearish USDA report was that crop prices posted only modest losses.

Soybeans closed down only about one percent and DECEMBER corn fell about 1.7 percent.

Canola and spring wheat were little changed.

USDA’s monthly supply and demand report pegged US. corn production at 14.185 billion bushels, based on an average yield of 169.9 bu. per acre.

That was up from last month’s 14.153 billion bu. for production and 169.5 bu. per acre for yield.

The soybean crop was pegged at a record 4.431 billion bu. with an average yield of 49.9 bu. per acre.

That was up from last month’s 4.381 billion bu., based on a yield of 49.4 bu. per acre.

Both numbers were higher than what the trade expected.

USDA reaised its forecast of global wheat production because of a 3.5 million tonnes increase in Russia’s crop, which more than offset a one million tonne decline in Australia’s crop.

However adjustments to domestic use and exports cause the year end wheat global wheat stocks number to decline slightly.

HARVEST WEATHER

The summer like weather we’ve enjoyed ends today and a system bringing rain and cooler temeratures enters the picture on Wednesday and continues into the weekend.

Forecast maps from the U.S. Weather Service show over the next several days Alberta’s central and northern grain belt getting the largest accumulation in that province.

Accumulations are fairly light in Saskatchewan except in the extreme southeast.

Much of Manitoba’s grain belt should get a half inch or more.

ARGENTINA

Excess rainfall in Buenos Aries province in Argentina threated to reduce the amount of soybeans and corn planted there.

The province is the largest grain producer in the country. Much will depend on the rains continue in October, the traditional start of the planting season.

The wheat crop is already planted in Argentina.

OUTSIDE MARKETS

The Toronto Stock Exchange composite rose 103.11 points or 0.69 percent to close at 15,143.41.

Canada’s competition watchdog said on Monday it will not challenge a proposed merger between Agrium Inc and Potash Corp, saying the transaction was unlikely to substantially lessen competition in the fertilizer industry.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 61.49 points, or 0.28 percent, to 22,118.86, the S&P 500 gained 8.38 points, or 0.34 percent, to 2,496.49 and the Nasdaq Composite added 22.02 points, or 0.34 percent, to 6,454.28.

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up 16 cents at US$48.21 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US82.04 cents, down from 82.48 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.2189.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Nov 17   484.40s   -1.30   -0.27%

Canola Jan 18   491.30s   -1.30   -0.26%

Canola Mar 18   498.00s   -1.50   -0.30%

Canola May 18   501.80s   -0.90   -0.18%

Canola Jul 18   503.30s   -0.50   -0.10%

 

Milling Wheat Oct 17   231.00s   -2.00   -0.86%

Milling Wheat Dec 17   234.00s   -2.00   -0.85%

Milling Wheat Mar 18   241.00s   -2.00   -0.82%

 

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Durum Wheat Oct 17   281.00s   unch   unch

Durum Wheat Dec 17   285.00s   unch   unch

Durum Wheat Mar 18   289.00s   unch   unch

 

Barley Oct 17   145.00s   unch   unch

Barley Dec 17   148.00s   unch   unch

Barley Mar 18   151.00s   unch   unch

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.

 

Chicago

Soybeans Sep 17   944-2s   -10-4   -1.10%

Soybeans Nov 17   950-4s   -9-4   -0.99%

Soybeans Jan 18   960-6s   -9-2   -0.95%

Soybeans Mar 18   969-4s   -9-0   -0.92%

Soybeans May 18   978-4s   -8-6   -0.89%

 

Soybean Meal Sep 17   295.1s   -3.8   -1.27%

Soybean Meal Oct 17   296.7s   -3.7   -1.23%

Soybean Meal Dec 17   300.0s   -3.6   -1.19%

 

Soybean Oil Sep 17   34.84s   +0.05   +0.14%

Soybean Oil Oct 17   34.93s   +0.05   +0.14%

Soybean Oil Dec 17   35.19s   +0.04   +0.11%

 

Corn Sep 17   340-0s   -5-4   -1.59%

Corn Dec 17   351-4s   -6-0   -1.68%

Corn Mar 18   363-6s   -6-0   -1.62%

Corn May 18   372-0s   -5-6   -1.52%

Corn Jul 18   378-4s   -5-4   -1.43%

 

Oats Sep 17   235-4s   unch   unch

Oats Dec 17   234-2s   unch   unch

Oats Mar 18   242-0s   unch   unch

Oats May 18   241-4s   +0-2   +0.10%

Oats Jul 18   244-2s   +0-6   +0.31%

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Wheat Sep 17   419-4s   +7-2   +1.76%

Wheat Dec 17   442-0s   +7-2   +1.67%

Wheat Mar 18   462-0s   +6-6   +1.48%

Wheat May 18   476-0s   +6-0   +1.28%

Wheat Jul 18   489-0s   +5-4   +1.14%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Sep 17   626-2s   unch   unch

Spring Wheat Dec 17   641-6s   -0-4   -0.08%

Spring Wheat Mar 18   653-2s   -0-6   -0.11%

Spring Wheat May 18   653-2s   +2-0   +0.31%

Spring Wheat Jul 18   649-4s   +6-0   +0.93%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Sep 17   416-0s   +6-6   +1.65%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 17   441-6s   +7-0   +1.61%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 18   459-2s   +7-0   +1.55%

Hard Red Wheat May 18   472-4s   +6-6   +1.45%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 18   488-6s   +6-0   +1.24%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade

Live Cattle Oct 17   106.275s   -0.925   -0.86%

Live Cattle Dec 17   111.550s   -1.325   -1.17%

Live Cattle Feb 18   115.250s   -1.300   -1.12%

 

Feeder Cattle Sep 17   147.975s   -0.475   -0.32%

Feeder Cattle Oct 17   149.150s   -0.200   -0.13%

Feeder Cattle Nov 17   149.250s   -0.050   -0.03%

 

Lean Hogs Oct 17   59.450s   -2.125   -3.45%

Lean Hogs Dec 17   57.100s   -1.525   -2.60%

Lean Hogs Feb 18   62.725s   -0.950   -1.49%

 

 

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