Market wrap: Canola rallies $5.70 on the week

Canola futures rose Friday with support from soybeans, which climbed on strong U.S. exports and concerns about South American weather.

The cool, cloudy and sometimes wet weather that is interfering with harvest in a large part of the Prairies this week is now expected to continue into the early part of next week, according to Environment Canada.

Warmer sunny weather is expected to arrive Wednesday.

November canola rose $2.70 to $494.80 per tonne. It was the sixth rise in seven trading sessions.

Compared to the Friday a week ago, November gained $5.70.

The canola crush and export pace so far this year is running a little behind last year at this time.

CRUSH

The canola crush was 169,720 tonnes in the week to Sept. 20, down 3.7 percent from the week before, the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association said.

That represented a capacity use to 76.6 percent, a little behind the pace at this point last year.

EXPORTS

Canola exports for the week to Sept. 17 were 115,500 tonnes up from 96,400 the week before, according to figures from the Canadian Grain Commission.

For the crop year they are 778,300 tonnes, still trailing last year’s pace of 862,200 tonnes.

Wheat exports are off to a good start with 242,100 tonnes moved last week bringing the total for the crop year to 2.12 million tonnes, up from 1.75 million last year at the same time.

Durum exports for the year are at 574,700 tonnes, u from 339,400 same time last year.

Pea exports for the year at 452,400 tonnes are well behind last year’s pace of 869,600.

WEST COAST

The weekly grain monitor report from Quorum Corp. said that in the week to Sept. 17 Vancouver cleared 10 ships, up from seven the previous week. In the line up were 14 ships, down from 17 the week before. The forecast for ships arriving this week is 11, up from seven.

For Prince Rupert on one vessel was cleared, down from two the previous week. Only one ship is in the line up this week, but five are forecast to arrive.

SOUTH AMERICAN WEATHER

A large part of central Brazil is dry and farmers there hope for rain before they begin planting soybeans.

The forecast for the coming week is for rain in southern regions but not much in the dry central part.

It has been excessively wet in Argentina. However, there is a shift toward La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean, and that tends to lead to drier than normal weather in central Argentina and sometimes in southern Brazil.

AUSTRALIA

Severe dry soils remain a concern in many cropping areas of Australia, although recent rains have helped some areas in southern Western Australia and Victoria..

But if the La Nina fully forms, help might be on the way although it might be too late for this year’s crop

La Nina can bring larger than normal rains to eastern Australia.

Also the palm oil producing countries of Indonesia and Malaysia tend to be wetter.

US WEATHER

Significant accumulations of rain are expected in the hard red winter region in the next seven days. The moisture should be welcomed by most growers in the area who were concerned about dry soils.

US EXPORTS

American soybean exports are not as strong as last year at this point, but a recent string of export sales has the market in an upbeat frame of mind about soybean demand.

Demand for American and corn and wheat is less rosy.

TRADE

The World Trade Organization has set up a panel to start assessing the U.S. complaint on Chinese grain import quotas.

Canada, Brazil, the EU and other traders have joined the case as interested third parties.

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up 10 cents at US$50.65 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US81.07 cents, little changed from 81.10 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.2335.

The loonie has given back most of the gain it made immediately following the surprise Sept. 6 Bank of Canada interest rate hike.

Canadian retail sales data were mixed in July and were perceived as indicating that the economy was steady. Inflation rose to 1.4 percent in August from 1.2 in July, but that was below expectations for 1.5 percent.

Economists told Reuters that they thought the data was strong enough to prompt another interest rate hike from the Bank of Canada but there was no rush to do so.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index fell 0.69 points to close at 15,454.23.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 9.64 points, or 0.04 percent, to 22,349.59, the S&P 500 gained 1.61 points, or 0.06 percent, to 2,502.21 and the Nasdaq Composite added 4.23 points, or 0.07 percent, to 6,426.92.

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For the week, the TSX rose 1.6 percent, the Dow climbed 0.4 percent, the S&P edged up 0.1 percent and the Nasdaq fell 0.3 percent.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

 

Canola Nov 17 494.80s +2.70 +0.55%

Canola Jan 18 501.50s +2.40 +0.48%

Canola Mar 18 506.00s +2.60 +0.52%

Canola May 18 508.70s +2.50 +0.49%

Canola Jul 18 510.20s +2.80 +0.55%

 

Milling Wheat Oct 17 230.00s +4.00 +1.77%

Milling Wheat Dec 17 232.00s +4.00 +1.75%

Milling Wheat Mar 18 237.00s +4.00 +1.72%

 

Durum Wheat Oct 17 279.00s unch unch

Durum Wheat Dec 17 283.00s unch unch

Durum Wheat Mar 18 286.00s unch unch

 

Barley Oct 17 145.00s unch unch

Barley Dec 17 148.00s unch unch

Barley Mar 18 151.00s unch unch

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.

 

Chicago

Soybeans Nov 17 984-2s +13-4 +1.39%

Soybeans Jan 18 994-4s +13-4 +1.38%

Soybeans Mar 18 1003-4s +13-2 +1.34%

Soybeans May 18 1011-4s +13-0 +1.30%

Soybeans Jul 18 1017-6s +12-6 +1.27%

 

Soybean Meal Oct 17 315.0s +6.0 +1.94%

Soybean Meal Dec 17 319.0s +6.1 +1.95%

Soybean Meal Jan 18 321.0s +6.1 +1.94%

 

Soybean Oil Oct 17 33.99s -0.11 -0.32%

Soybean Oil Dec 17 34.22s -0.12 -0.35%

Soybean Oil Jan 18 34.38s -0.12 -0.35%

 

Corn Dec 17 353-4s +3-2 +0.93%

Corn Mar 18 366-0s +3-0 +0.83%

Corn May 18 374-4s +3-2 +0.88%

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Corn Jul 18 381-4s +3-4 +0.93%

Corn Sep 18 388-0s +3-2 +0.84%

 

Oats Dec 17 248-0s -2-0 -0.80%

Oats Mar 18 254-6s -2-2 -0.88%

Oats May 18 255-2s -2-2 -0.87%

Oats Jul 18 252-6s -2-2 -0.88%

Oats Sep 18 252-6s -2-2 -0.88%

 

Wheat Dec 17 449-4s -3-0 -0.66%

Wheat Mar 18 469-4s -2-4 -0.53%

Wheat May 18 483-0s -2-0 -0.41%

Wheat Jul 18 494-2s -2-0 -0.40%

Wheat Sep 18 509-2s -1-4 -0.29%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Dec 17 634-6s +10-4 +1.68%

Spring Wheat Mar 18 646-0s +10-0 +1.57%

Spring Wheat May 18 648-6s +8-2 +1.29%

Spring Wheat Jul 18 647-4s +9-2 +1.45%

Spring Wheat Sep 18 636-6s +7-2 +1.15%

 

Kansas

Hard Red Wheat Dec 17 450-2s +0-6 +0.17%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 18 468-0s +0-4 +0.11%

Hard Red Wheat May 18 480-4s +0-2 +0.05%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 18 497-4s +0-2 +0.05%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 18 516-0s +0-4 +0.10%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade

Live Cattle (Pit) Oct 17 111.575s +1.475 +1.34%

Live Cattle (Pit) Dec 17 117.425s +1.225 +1.05%

Live Cattle (Pit) Feb 18 120.050s +0.800 +0.67%

 

Feeder Cattle (Pit) Sep 17 153.400s +0.225 +0.15%

Feeder Cattle (Pit) Oct 17 156.100s +0.225 +0.14%

Feeder Cattle (Pit) Nov 17 157.625s +0.800 +0.51%

 

Lean Hogs (Pit) Oct 17 55.700s -1.625 -2.83%

Lean Hogs (Pit) Dec 17 56.625s -1.175 -2.03%

Lean Hogs (Pit) Feb 18 61.900s -0.975 -1.55%

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