Crop futures fell on Friday and posted significant declines over the week as the outlook for good South American crops grew, Canadian and U.S. currencies appreciated and U.S. exports disappointed.
There is also significant technical weakness in canola.
Downward pressure Friday came from a private analyst’s increased estimates of U.S. soybean and corn harvests.
March canola, the most traded contract, closed at $578.40, down $7.10. For the week, March fell $20.20 per tonne.
There was lingering pressure from China’s decision earlier in the week to cancel some soybean shipments from the U.S. Prospects are good that the Chinese will be soon able to buy at lower prices from Brazil and Argentina, which are now enjoying generally good growing conditions and where record large crops are expected.
Corn fell below its 200-day moving average.
Over the week, speculators cut their net long positions in corn and soybeans but increased their positions in wheat.
Warm weather is expected to melt large areas of snow cover in the U.S. central plains winter wheat region in the next few days but then cold temperatures will move in, raising the danger of winter kill.
The USDA updates its estimates of U.S. crops and demand on Jan. 11. It will also have the first official estimate of winter wheat acreage.
Today, analytic company Informa released its new crop size estimates.
It pegged U.S. corn yield at 123.3 bushels per acre, up from 122.3 previously and raised its production estimate to 10.8 billion bu. from 10.725 billion.
It raised its soybean yield estimate to 40.1 bu. per acre from 39.3 bu. and lifted the total soybean production estimate to 3.04 billion bu. from 2.971 billion.
The wheat and canola harvest is complete in Australia, but livestock producers in parts of central and southern Australia are suffering through an intense summer heat wave with temperatures of 40 C and hotter.
The Canadian Oilseed Processors Association said members crushed 138,858 tonnes of canola in the holiday-shortened week ending Jan. 2, down almost eight percent from the previous week.
The crush so far this year is up about 11 percent from last year at the same time.
The CWB updated its Pool Return Outlooks today. See daily news at Producer.com for coverage.
Winnipeg (per tonne)
Canola Jan 13 $598.40, down $5.90 -0.98%
Canola Mar 13 $578.40, down $7.10 -1.21%
Canola May 13 $570.90, down $7.80 -1.35%
Canola Jul 13 $568.40, down $6.50 -1.13%
Milling Wheat Mar 13 $290.50, unchanged
Milling Wheat May 13 $293.50, unchanged
Milling Wheat Jul 13 $295.50, unchanged
Durum Wheat Mar 13 $312.40, unchanged
Durum Wheat May 13 $316.40, unchanged
Durum Wheat Jul 13 $319.40, unchanged
Barley Mar 13 $247.00, unchanged
Barley May 13 $248.00, unchanged
Barley Jul 13 $248.50, unchanged
Chicago (per bushel)
Soybeans (P) Jan 13 $13.89, down 14.0 cents -1.00%
Soybeans (P) Mar 13 $13.6725, down 19.25 -1.39%
Soybeans (P) May 13 $13.585, down 19.75 -1.43%
Soybeans (P) Jul 13 $13.55, down 21.5 -1.56%
Corn (P) Mar 13 $6.8025 down 9.0 -1.31%
Corn (P) May 13 $6.8075, down 10.25 -1.48%
Corn (P) Jul 13 $6.7475, down 11.75 -1.71%
Oats (P) Mar 13 $3.3275, down 5.0 -1.48%
Oats (P) May 13 $3.385, down 6.5 -1.88%
Oats (P) Jul 13 $3.44, down 5.75 -1.64%
Minneapolis (per bushel)
Spring Wheat Mar 13 $8.41, down 5.5 cents -0.65%
Spring Wheat May 13 $8.5025, down 7.25 -0.85%
Spring Wheat Jul 13 $8.5925, down 7.5 -0.87%
Spring Wheat Sep 13 $8.58, down 7.25 -0.84%
The Bank of Canada noon rate for the loonie was $1.0146, slightly down from $1.0149 on Thursday.
The U.S. buck was 98.56 cents Cdn.
Light crude oil in New York rose 17 cents to $93.09 per barrel.
Canada’s economy created a larger than expected 40,000 jobs in December. The unemployment rate fell to 7.1 percent from 7.2 last month.
The United States created 155,000 jobs in the month, close to expectations, and the unemployment rate stayed at 7.8 percent.
Also, data from the U.S. Institute for Supply Management showed U.S. service sector activity expanding the most in 10 months.
In unofficial tallies:
The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index rose 70.37 points, or 0.56 percent, to 12,540.81. The index climbed 1.8 percent for the week.
The Dow Jones industrial average rose 43.85 points or 0.33 percent, to 13,435.21.
The S&P 500 rose 7.1 points or 0.49 percent, to close at 1,466.47.
The Nasdaq Composite added 1.09 points or 0.04 percent, to finish at 3,101.66.
For the week, the S&P added 4.6 percent, the Dow rose 3.8 percent and the Nasdaq jumped 4.8 percent, to post their largest weekly percentage gains in more than a year.