Frost, excess rain lifts wheat 2.4 percent Monday

Frost and snow on the Northern plains and forecasts of excessive rain in the southern plains had U.S. wheat futures rising again on Monday.
Canadian markets were closed. The market response to the freezing weather on canola will have to wait until Tuesday.
A farmer in the Humboldt, Sask., area tweeted overnight that his thermometer showed -7C. Environment Canada shows large areas of Saskatchewan hit -3C to -4C overnight.
Today, Soybeans edged only slightly higher and soy oil fell slightly.
Minneapolis hard red spring wheat July futures closed up 13.25 cents or 2.4 percent at $5.745.
Chicago wheat closed up two percent on Monday and hit a one month high.
Ahead of USDA’s weekly crop progress report due later on Monday, analysts on average expected USDA to rate winter wheat as 44 percent good to excellent, unchanged from a week ago. But some expected a drop in ratings after heavy rains last week saturated fields in parts of the southern Plains and southern Midwest.
Additional support came from jitters about dry weather in southern Russia, Reuters said.
The rising wheat market helped to lift corn. Also, worries about what the cold will do to emerging corn plants in North Dakota also supported corn.
Most-active July corn came within one tick of equaling its Friday high of $3.715 per bushel, before settling in the middle of its trading range at $3.68 in an “inside day” on the charts, Reuters reported.
North Dakota’s corn crop is small compared to the overall U.S. crop, however, and the frost overall is not expected to significantly reduce supplies at the autumn harvest.
Analysts expected the U.S. Department of Agriculture later on Monday to show U.S. corn plantings at 87 percent complete, up from 75 percent last week and ahead of the five-year average for this week of 75 percent, Reuters said.
Snow fell in southern Manitoba Monday morning.
Light snow also fell early Monday in North Dakota, and temperatures on Tuesday were expected to dip to the -4 to -2 C in the central portion of the state.
“At this point it looks like we will see some damage and some need for re-planting in those areas,” David Streit, a meteorologist with the Commodity Weather Group, told Reuters, adding that roughly half the state’s corn crop was vulnerable.
North Dakota farmers are expected to plant 2.7 million acres of corn this year, down from 2.8 million last year and far less than the 13.6 million acres projected for top producer Iowa.
In neighbouring Minnesota, the No. 4 corn producer, conditions should not get cold enough to threaten crops. Temperatures should moderate after Tuesday.
North Dakota is the biggest U.S. producer of spring wheat, but that crop is hardy enough to withstand the cold, Streit and others said.
MORE RAIN FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS
Farther south, weekend rains soaked portions of Kansas, the top grower of winter wheat, used for bread. Storms dumped up to four inches in parts of south-central to northeast Kansas, with lesser amounts in Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, enters reported.
Rains since late April have helped recharge soil moisture in the southern Plains, which has been in the grip of a long-term drought. But the rains are starting to become excessive.
Forecasts call for two more waves of showers in the region this week, raising the risk of yield-robbing diseases and crop quality problems as winter wheat approaches maturity.
“Certainly from a quality standpoint, it’s going to start to become a real negative,” Streit said.
“We are probably trading headlines today – forecasts for heavy rains in Texas and Oklahoma,” said Austin Damiani, analyst at Frontier Futures. “People are worried that with these (rain) totals, we will have a loss of production.”
A reversal from what had been deep drought in the southern Plains to a wetter weather pattern comes ahead of the wheat harvest, when excessive moisture can result in crop disease for maturing plants.
Rains could arrive midweek in Texas and Oklahoma, possibly causing local flooding and reducing wheat quality, with extended outlooks for next week remaining “unfavourably wet,” the Commodity Weather Group said in a note to clients.

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