Crop rally Friday limits weekly price decline

Crop futures markets finished off the week on an up note on Friday, recouping some of the losses posted earlier in the week.

It was a case of bargain buying and weather insurance as hot, dry weather continues to dominate the central plains of the U.S. and Canada.

Some weather forecast models also suggested it might be hotter in the Midwest in the coming than in yesterday’s forecast.

Crop prices early in the week rose, but then dropped sharply Wednesday following a USDA report that generally did not drop production and stock forecasts as much as expected. Also, the weather improved a little in the Midwest.

And for canola, it struggled against a rising loonie.

ONE WEEK CHANGE

Compared to the close last Friday, November canola fell $10 a tonne or 1.9 percent.

November soybeans fell 1.4 percent on the week and December corn fell 3.8 percent.

Minneapolis spring wheat was almost unchanged compared to last Friday, but Chicago soft wheat was down 23 cents per bushel or 4.1 percent.

That highlighted that while quality, high protein spring wheat is in short supply, the overall supply of wheat globally is not that tight according to the USDA numbers.

However, the USDA did not yet trim its forecast of Canada’s wheat crop despite the hot dry conditions in many parts of the Prairies. And its cut to Australian production might have to followed up with further trimming to reflect the exceptional drought in Western Australia.

ALBERTA CROP REPORT

Today’s Alberta Agriculture crop report said hot dry weather has taken a toll, with 68 percent of the province’s canola crop rated good to excellent, down from just over 73 percent the week before.

Last year at this time 82 percent was good to excellent. In 2015, only 25 percent of the canola crop was good to excellent

Across all crops this week, the good to excellent rating is 70 percent, down five percentage points from the week before and down three percentage points from the five-year average.

Conditions range from a low of 50 percent for mustard to a high of 73 percent for spring wheat.

Yesterday’s Saskatchewan Agriculture crop report also showed a deterioration in crop conditions.

CANOLA CRUSH

The canola crush this week was 163,588, down 11.5 percent from last week.

The total to date is 8.7 million tonnes and the sector is on track to match the Agriculture Canada forecast for the year of nine million.

EXPORTS

Canola exports in week 49 were a strong 288,900 tonnes, up from 155,200 the week before, said the Canadian Grain Commission.

Total canola exports for the year stand at 10.42 million tonnes and look set to exceed the Agriculture Canada forecast for 10.5 million.

Wheat exports were 365,500 tonnes down from 387,100 tonnes the week before.

The total to date is 13.69 million tonnes, well behind last year 15.29 million.

Durum exports were 19,000 tonnes, down from 188,900 the week before. The total to date is 4.09 million tonnes, almost tied with last year.

OUTSIDE MARKETS

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up 46 cents US$46.54 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US79.06 cents, up from US78.57 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.265.

Lower than expected U.S. inflation created the expectation that the U.S. Federal Reserve might take a slower approach to interest rate increases.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index ended up 39.81 points, or 0.26 percent, at 15,174.81.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 84.65 points, or 0.39 percent, to 21,637.74, a record high, the S&P 500 gained 11.44 points, or 0.47 percent, to 2,459.27, also a record high.

The Nasdaq Composite added 38.03 points, or 0.61 percent, to 6,312.47.

For the week, the Toronto Stock Exchange composite rose one percent, the Dow rose one percent, the Nasdaq rose 2.6 percent and the S&P 500 gained 1.4 percent.

 

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne

Canola Nov 2017  507.30 +4.80 +0.96%

Canola Jan 2018  511.30 +4.90 +0.97%

Canola Mar 2018 514.60 +4.60 +0.90%

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Canola May 2018 514.40 +4.60 +0.90%

Canola Jul 2018  514.30 +4.10 +0.80%

 

Milling Wheat Oct 2017 290.00 -15.00 -4.92%

Milling Wheat Dec 2017 299.00 -14.00 -4.47%

Milling Wheat Mar 2018 305.00 -12.00 -3.79%

 

Durum Wheat Oct 2017 279.00 +5.00 +1.82%

Durum Wheat Dec 2017 281.00 +6.00 +2.18%

Durum Wheat Mar 2018 283.00 +6.00 +2.17%

 

Barley Oct 2017 140.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Dec 2017 140.00 unch 0.00%

Barley Mar 2018 140.00 unch 0.00%

 

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

 

Chicago

Soybeans Jul 2017 985.25 +12.75 +1.31%

Soybeans Aug 2017 989.00 +14.50 +1.49%

Soybeans Sep 2017 992.75 +15.00 +1.53%

Soybeans Nov 2017 1001.50 +15.25 +1.55%

Soybeans Jan 2018 1010.25 +15.50 +1.56%

Soybeans Mar 2018 1014.00 +15.50 +1.55%

 

Soybean Meal Jul 2017 322.30 +5.50 +1.74%

Soybean Meal Aug 2017 323.70 +5.20 +1.63%

Soybean Meal Sep 2017 325.70 +5.30 +1.65%

 

Soybean Oil Jul 2017 33.06 +0.05 +0.15%

Soybean Oil Aug 2017 33.24 +0.36 +1.09%

Soybean Oil Sep 2017 33.36 +0.35 +1.06%

 

Corn Jul 2017 365.25 +4.25 +1.18%

Corn Sep 2017 376.25 +7.25 +1.96%

Corn Dec 2017 389.50 +7.00 +1.83%

Corn Mar 2018 400.25 +7.25 +1.84%

Corn May 2018 405.00 +7.00 +1.76%

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Oats Jul 2017 298.00 +3.50 +1.19%

Oats Sep 2017 287.00 +11.00 +3.99%

Oats Dec 2017 290.00 +11.00 +3.94%

Oats Mar 2018 287.50 +10.50 +3.79%

Oats May 2018 286.25 +10.25 +3.71%

 

Wheat Jul 2017 494.75 -0.75 -0.15%

Wheat Sep 2017 510.75 +1.00 +0.20%

Wheat Dec 2017 534.75 +1.50 +0.28%

Wheat Mar 2018 554.25 +1.75 +0.32%

Wheat May 2018 565.00 +1.25 +0.22%

 

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Jul 2017 756.50 +10.75 +1.44%

Spring Wheat Sep 2017 758.00 +8.50 +1.13%

Spring Wheat Dec 2017 760.25 +7.25 +0.96%

Spring Wheat Mar 2018 752.75 +5.75 +0.77%

Spring Wheat May 2018 739.00 +1.25 +0.17%

 

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2017 499.00 -0.75 -0.15%

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2017 513.50 +0.75 +0.15%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2017 540.00 +1.00 +0.19%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2018 556.00 -0.25 -0.04%

Hard Red Wheat May 2018 568.75 +1.00 +0.18%

 

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound (rounded to two decimal places)

Live Cattle (P) Aug 2017 117.80 +0.63 +0.54%

Live Cattle (P) Oct 2017 118.58 +0.99 +0.84%

Live Cattle (P) Dec 2017 119.00 +1.16 +0.98%

 

Feeder Cattle (P) Aug 2017 154.28 +1.78 +1.17%

Feeder Cattle (P) Sep 2017 154.08 +1.68 +1.10%

Feeder Cattle (P) Oct 2017 152.75 +1.48 +0.98%

 

Lean Hogs (P) Jul 2017 92.60 -0.10 -0.11%

Lean Hogs (P) Aug 2017 79.90 -2.68 -3.25%

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Lean Hogs (P) Oct 2017 67.18 -2.18 -3.14%