Canola sags Friday but gains $18.40 on the week

Crop futures fell on Friday on concern about slowing U.S. grain exports and general worry about lack of progress in the U.S. fiscal cliff negotiations.

January canola closed at $594.30, down $2.90 or 0.49 percent.

But on the week, canola rose for the first time in several weeks, climbing $18.30 per tonne, mostly on worries that the South American soy crop might not be as big as first expected.

• Demand from domestic canola crushers is weakening after a strong start to the year.

• Chicago oats were hammered more than two percent lower early today but made a big comeback at the close, finishing unchanged to higher.

• U.S. wheat futures fell more than other crops when deliveries against the expiring Chicago Board of Trade December contract were higher than expected.

The exchange contributed to the confusion because it failed on Thursday to report a large number of contracts registered for delivery.

• The U.S. weekly export report Thursday showed wheat, corn and soybean exports were less than expected.

• Palm oil analysts at an industry outlook meeting in Bali focused on the record large stocks of crude palm oil and uncertainty about impending changes in Chinese and Indian palm oil import requirements. India wants to protect domestic producers and China wants stricter controls on quality, Reuters reported.

The analysts expect Indonesia and Malaysia will increase production in 2013.

Analysts polled at the conference on average expect palm prices to be 17 percent lower in 2013 than in 2012.

• Statistics Canada on Wednesday will release its final crop production estimates for 2012-13.

It surveyed 29,288 Canadian farmers from Oct. 26 to Nov. 14.

Reuters polled traders and analysts this week for pre report expectations.

The average guess for all-wheat production was 27.1 million tonnes, up 1.4 percent from StatsCan’s estimate on Oct. 4, and a jump of 7.3 percent from last year’s harvest.

The average estimate for canola is 13.7 million tonnes, up 2.6 percent from StatsCan’s last estimate but down 5.5 percent from last year’s crop. The estimates in the Reuters poll ranged from 13 million tonnes to 14.4 million.

The average estimate for oats is 2.9 million tonnes and for barley is 8.6 million.

• The crush rate fell again. The Canadian Oilseed Processors Association said members crushed 124,809 tonnes of canola in the week ending Nov. 28. That was down 9.5 percent from the week before and represented a crush capacity used of only 75 percent, down from the year-to-date rate of 88.5 percent.

 

Winnipeg (per tonne)

Canola Jan 13  $594.30, down 2.90       -0.49%

Canola Mar 13  $594.10, down 3.10       -0.52%

Canola May 13  $592.60, down 3.10       -0.52%

Canola Jul 13  $589.10, down 2.90       -0.49%

 

Milling Wheat Dec 12  $300.60, down 7.40       -2.40%

Milling Wheat Mar 13  $308.60, down 7.40       -2.34%

Milling Wheat May 13  $311.60, down 7.40       -2.32%

 

Durum Wheat Dec 12  $312.00, unchanged

Durum Wheat Mar 13  $316.00, unchanged

Durum Wheat May 13  $320.00, unchanged

 

Barley Dec 12  $245.00, unchanged

Barley Mar 13  $248.00, unchanged

Barley May 13  $249.00, unchanged

 

Chicago (per bushel)

Soybeans (P) Jan 13 14.3875, down 9.25 cents -0.64%

Soybeans (P) Mar 13  $14.325, down 8.5       -0.59%

Soybeans (P) May 13  $14.0975, down 8.75       -0.62%

Soybeans (P) Jul 13  $14.005, down 7.75       -0.55%

 

Corn (P) Dec 12  $7.48, down 3.5       -0.47%

Corn (P) Mar 13  $7.5275, down 6.0       -0.79%

Corn (P) May 13  $7.52, down 6.0       -0.79%

 

Oats (P) Dec 12  $3.6075, unchanged

Oats (P) Mar 13  $3.7875       +0.25       +0.07%

Oats (P) May 13  $3.8275, up 0.75       +0.20%

 

Minneapolis (per bushel)

Spring Wheat Dec 12  $9.185, down 12.75 cents       -1.37%

Spring Wheat Mar 13  $9.3675, down 14.5       -1.52%

Spring Wheat May 13  $9.4625, down 15.25       -1.59%

Spring Wheat Jul 13  $9.4825, down 12.0       -1.25%

 

The Bank of Canada noon rate for the loonie was $1.0068, down marginally from $1.0070 the day before.

The U.S. buck was 99.32 cents Cdn.

Nearby crude oil in New York rose 84 cents to $88.91 per barrel.

In early tallies:

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index rose 36.19 points, or 0.3 percent, at 12,239.04

The Dow Jones industrial average climbed 3.22 points, or 0.02 percent, to close at 13,025.04

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index inched up 0.30 of a point, or 0.02 percent, to end at 1,416.25

The Nasdaq Composite Index dipped 1.79 points, or 0.06 percent, to close at 3,010.24

For the week, the TSX crept up 0.2 percent, the Dow rose 0.1 percent, the S&P 500 gained 0.5 percent and the Nasdaq climbed 1.5 percent.