Canola falls as good harvest continues

Canola had another dreadful day Monday, falling to $485.70 per tonne for the November futures contract.

That’s beneath a line of medium-term support at $490 per tonne, which has held since June, but leaves it well above longer-term support at $472 per tonne.

Traders blamed the decline on harvest pressure, as huge amounts of crop pour into farmers’ bins and elevators. Excellent harvest weather has combines running full-out across the Prairies.

As usual, reports from the field suggest canola yields are better than expected, especially considering the sub-optimal weather conditions this summer.

The Canadian dollar rose again Monday, which further dragged down canola.

While harvest has gone well so far, progress may be delayed later in this week. Environment Canada forecasts a likelihood rains for most of the Prairies later in the week.

Most other crops were almost flat on the day.

AUSTRALIA

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences forecast wheat production at 21.64 million tonnes, down from a March forecast of 23.98 million tonnes. The August U.S. Department of Agriculture forecast pegged Australia’s crop at 23.5 million tonnes.

This would represent a one-third decline from 2016-17, when Australia produced a record 32.64 million tonnes.

ABARES also forecast the canola crop at 2.75 million tonnes, down from a previous estimate of 3.69 million tonnes.

OUTSIDE MARKETS

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Light crude oil nearby futures in New York were up 59 cents at US$48.07 per barrel.

In the afternoon, the Canadian dollar was trading around US82.48 cents, up from 82.34 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar was C$1.2124.

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index closed up 54.98 points, or 0.37 percent, at 15,040.30.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.19 percent to end at 22,057.37 points in its largest one-day gain since February.

The S&P 500 gained 1.08 percent to 2,488.11 and the Nasdaq Composite added 1.13 percent to 6,432.26.

Winnipeg ICE Futures Canada dollars per tonne
Canola Nov 17   485.70s   -4.00   -0.82%
Canola Jan 18   492.60s   -3.70   -0.75%
Canola Mar 18   499.50s   -3.30   -0.66%
Canola May 18   502.70s   -3.00   -0.59%
Canola Jul 18   503.80s   -2.50   -0.49%

Milling Wheat Oct 17   231.00s   -2.00   -0.86%
Milling Wheat Dec 17   234.00s   -2.00   -0.85%
Milling Wheat Mar 18   241.00s   -2.00   -0.82%

Durum Wheat Oct 17   281.00s   unch   unch
Durum Wheat Dec 17   285.00s   unch   unch
Durum Wheat Mar 18   289.00s   unch   unch

Barley Oct 17   145.00s   unch   unch
Barley Dec 17   148.00s   unch   unch
Barley Mar 18   151.00s   unch   unch

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound. Prices are displayed with fractions (2/8, 4/8, and 6/8) instead of decimals. -2 equals .25, -4 equals .50, -6 equals .75. The “s” means it is the settlement.

Chicago
Soybeans Sep 17   954-6s   -1-6   -0.18%
Soybeans Nov 17   960-0s   -2-0   -0.21%
Soybeans Jan 18   970-0s   -2-0   -0.21%
Soybeans Mar 18   978-4s   -2-0   -0.20%
Soybeans May 18   987-2s   -1-4   -0.15%

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Soybean Meal Sep 17   298.9s   -2.0   -0.66%
Soybean Meal Oct 17   300.4s   -2.0   -0.66%
Soybean Meal Dec 17   303.6s   -1.6   -0.52%

Soybean Oil Sep 17   34.79s   +0.20   +0.58%
Soybean Oil Oct 17   34.88s   +0.20   +0.58%
Soybean Oil Dec 17   35.15s   +0.21   +0.60%

Corn Sep 17   345-4s   +1-2   +0.36%
Corn Dec 17   357-4s   +0-6   +0.21%
Corn Mar 18   369-6s   +0-6   +0.20%
Corn May 18   377-6s   +1-0   +0.27%
Corn Jul 18   384-0s   +0-6   +0.20%

Oats Sep 17   235-4s   +2-2   +0.96%
Oats Dec 17   234-2s   +2-2   +0.97%
Oats Mar 18   242-0s   +2-0   +0.83%
Oats May 18   241-2s   +1-0   +0.42%
Oats Jul 18   243-4s   unch   unch

Wheat Sep 17   412-2s   -1-4   -0.36%
Wheat Dec 17   434-6s   -3-0   -0.69%
Wheat Mar 18   455-2s   -4-0   -0.87%
Wheat May 18   470-0s   -3-4   -0.74%
Wheat Jul 18   483-4s   -3-2   -0.67%

Minneapolis
Spring Wheat Sep 17   626-2s   -4-0   -0.63%
Spring Wheat Dec 17   642-2s   -4-4   -0.70%
Spring Wheat Mar 18   654-0s   -3-0   -0.46%
Spring Wheat May 18   651-2s   -3-0   -0.46%
Spring Wheat Jul 18   643-4s   -3-0   -0.46%

Kansas City
Hard Red Wheat Sep 17   409-2s   -6-2   -1.50%
Hard Red Wheat Dec 17   434-6s   -6-6   -1.53%
Hard Red Wheat Mar 18   452-2s   -6-6   -1.47%
Hard Red Wheat May 18   465-6s   -6-2   -1.32%
Hard Red Wheat Jul 18   482-6s   -6-0   -1.23%

Chicago livestock futures in US¢/pound, Pit trade
Live Cattle Oct 17   107.200s   -0.125   -0.12%
Live Cattle Dec 17   112.875s   +0.025   +0.02%
Live Cattle Feb 18   116.550s   -0.075   -0.06%

Feeder Cattle Sep 17   148.450s   +0.575   +0.39%
Feeder Cattle Oct 17   149.350s   +0.925   +0.62%
Feeder Cattle Nov 17   149.300s   +1.075   +0.73%

Lean Hogs Oct 17   61.575s   -0.575   -0.93%
Lean Hogs Dec 17   58.625s   -0.275   -0.47%
Lean Hogs Feb 18   63.675s   -0.075   -0.12%

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