Corn, soy numbers in USDA report called too high

Analysts are taking issue with what they see as high corn and soybean yield numbers in the United States Department of Agriculture’s latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

USDA estimated corn yields would come in at 169.5 bushels per acre, which was 3.30 bu. above the average trade estimate and 6.70 bu. above the forecast from Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist with INTL FCStone.

The soybean estimate came in at 49.4 bu. per acre, which beat the average trade estimate by 1.9 bu. per acre.

 “The August crop report is known for its surprises and the USDA didn’t disappoint,” said.

If the USDA is right, it would have major ramifications for grain and oilseed prices.

Suderman’s corn yield estimate would result in year-ending corn stocks of 1.6 billion bushels and a marketing year average cash price of $4.35 per bu.

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The USDA’s yield estimate, according to Suderman’s calculations, would see stocks soar to 2.37 billion bushels and an average price of $3.35 per bu.

Suderman is also skeptical of the USDA’s soybean estimate.

Soybean yields are made or ruined during the key pod-filling period and that doesn’t come until later in August.

That is why the USDA usually provides a conservative estimate in the August report, but not this year.

Commodity Weather Group has analyzed seven years with similar rainfall patterns and temperatures in the Midwest and similar crop condition ratings.

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The final yields in those years ranged from 40 to 50 bu. per acre. The USDA is already at the high end of that range with its estimate.

Suderman said the crop could end up at 49.4 bu./acre or even match last year’s 52.1 bu./acre but it could also be as low as 45 bu/acre.

He forecasts 47.7, which would result in 446 million bu. of ending stocks and a marketing year average cash price of $9.40 per bu.

Contact sean.pratt@producer.com

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  • Dennis Weatherald

    If Analyst’s are besides themselves, farmers are livid. USDA should NOT be in the estimate game. The only beneficiaries after this load are the speculator/traders and its on the backs of farmers.

    • ed

      Yes, and taxpayers/consumers and farmers are paying the price for the frauds that those numbers are perpetuating. The USDA helps decide that when prices are too high for their corporate buddyies in the ag. business, they are to report crop
      volumes or certain crop volumes high to scare farmers into forward contracting at accelerated rates to free fall the price. If the volumes of crop or certain crops being seeded are too low, they report them as even lower to get farmers to seed more of a particular crop to increase the volume produced and have those farmers hold off on futures price contracts. This is a double negative for farmers as the reality of actually higher volumes mixed with fraudulently reported phantom crop stocks both later tank fall markets when farmers are rushing to sell off the combine for some long needed cash to satisfy interest back to the borrowing date low or zero interest deferred payment input loan deadlines. Until governments step up and give more interest free longer term, two to four year loans for farmers, the notion of a free market rather than a fraudulent mat key will be a phantom dream as well. This stuff is all about controlling the price, volume and the slave like labor while manipulating the consumer pricing for max profit and substantiating the vast amount of unnecessary tax payers money flowing into the scheme at the same time. Without futher comment on the unbelievable levels of deception being carried out here, if this was a master plan for some kind of greater good, it would be being hailed as quite brilliant.