Canada’s agricultural markets update – August 1, 2014

U.S. soybean futures took another hit Friday, carrying its pain since the start of July into August.

That handed canola a bad day too, although the northern oilseed’s recent experience has been far less brutalizing than soybeans.’

Soybeans fell 26 cents on the September Chicago contract and 23 cents for November. Canola fell 16 cents per bushel for November and January.

The soybean slump reveals the great unwinding of prices from super-short old crop supplies to the expectation of hefty new crop supplies.

August soybean futures are still above $12 per bushel, at $12.15 at the close Friday with only a nine cent fall on the day, holding a lasting inversion to new crop futures prices.

New crop soybean prices too maintain the inversion, with September at $10.73 versus $10.58 for November.

That inversion ends between the November and January contracts.

Canola futures have not been helped by reports of average yields likely from Western Canada.

Good wheat yields expected in both Canada and the U.S. northern plains have been hurting spring wheat prices, with Chicago and Kansas City futures prices on Friday rising slightly Friday but Minneapolis prices being essentially unchanged.

On a Friday to Friday basis, November canola fell $8.20 a tonne or 1.9 percent. November soybeans fell 25 cents a bushel over the week or 2.3 percent. December corn fell 9.5 cents or 2.6 percent and Minneapolis December wheat fell 8.75 cents or 1.4 percent.

The generally dour day in crop markets followed yesterday’s over-300 point drop on the Dow Jones Industrial Index. Predictably, treasury note rates fell while gold prices rose.

A good U.S. jobs report wasn’t able to lift markets, but it perhaps stopped them falling more. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine and ebola fears from west Africa didn’t remove the air of insecurity some in the markets are feeling.

ICE Futures Canada, dollars per tonne

Canola Nov 2014    434.30    -7.00    -1.59%

Canola Jan 2015    438.40    -7.00    -1.57%

Canola Mar 2015    439.10    -6.90    -1.55%

Canola May 2015    435.40    -6.90    -1.56%

Canola Jul 2015    431.20    -6.90    -1.57%

Milling Wheat Oct 2014    188.00    unch    0.00%

Milling Wheat Dec 2014    194.00    unch    0.00%

Milling Wheat Mar 2015    196.00    +1.00    +0.51%

Durum Wheat Oct 2014    250.00    unch    0.00%

Durum Wheat Dec 2014    256.00    unch    0.00%

Durum Wheat Mar 2015    257.00    unch    0.00%

Barley Oct 2014    136.50    -1.00    -0.73%

Barley Dec 2014    138.50    -1.00    -0.72%

Barley Mar 2015    139.50    -1.00    -0.71%

American crop prices in cents US/bushel, soybean meal in $US/short ton, soy oil in cents US/pound

Chicago
Soybeans Aug 2014    1215    -9.5    -0.78%

Soybeans Sep 2014    1073.5    -26.25    -2.39%

Soybeans Nov 2014    1058.5    -23.5    -2.17%

Soybeans Jan 2015    1066.75    -23.5    -2.16%

Soybeans Mar 2015    1075    -22.5    -2.05%

Soybeans May 2015    1082.25    -21.75    -1.97%

Soybean Meal Aug 2014    387.5    -3.8    -0.97%

Soybean Meal Sep 2014    355.8    -6.2    -1.71%

Soybean Meal Oct 2014    345.1    -6.7    -1.90%

Soybean Oil Aug 2014    35.45    -0.66    -1.83%

Soybean Oil Sep 2014    35.54    -0.62    -1.71%

Soybean Oil Oct 2014    35.58    -0.64    -1.77%

Corn Sep 2014    352.5    -4.5    -1.26%

Corn Dec 2014    362.25    -4.75    -1.29%

Corn Mar 2015    374.75    -4.75    -1.25%

Corn May 2015    383.25    -4.5    -1.16%

Corn Jul 2015    390.75    -4.5    -1.14%

Oats Sep 2014    350.75    -3.75    -1.06%

Oats Dec 2014    330.75    +0.25    +0.08%

Oats Mar 2015    318.25    -0.5    -0.16%

Oats May 2015    309    unch    0.00%

Oats Jul 2015    309.75    +0.25    +0.

Wheat Sep 2014    534.25    +4    +0.75%

Wheat Dec 2014    553.25    +3    +0.55%

Wheat Mar 2015    574    +1.75    +0.31%

Wheat May 2015    587    +1    +0.17%

Wheat Jul 2015    595.75    unch    0.00%

Minneapolis

Spring Wheat Sep 2014    616    unch    0.00%

Spring Wheat Dec 2014    626.75    +0.5    +0.08%

Spring Wheat Mar 2015    640.5    +1.75    +0.27%

Spring Wheat May 2015    648.25    +2    +0.31%

Spring Wheat Jul 2015    655.25    +1.25    +0.19%

Kansas City

Hard Red Wheat Sep 2014    632.75    +7    +1.12%

Hard Red Wheat Dec 2014    643.5    +4.5    +0.70%

Hard Red Wheat Mar 2015    648    +3.75    +0.58%

Hard Red Wheat May 2015    650.75    +3.25    +0.50%

Hard Red Wheat Jul 2015    641.5    +3.75    +0.59%

Light crude oil nearby futures in New York fell 29 cents at $97.88 US per barrel.

The Bank of Canada noon rate for the loonie was 91.58 cents US, down from 91.83 cents the previous trading day. The U.S. dollar at noon was $1.0919 Cdn.

Uncertainty over Argentina’s debt default and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate stance as well as some weak corporate quarterly profits knocked stocks down.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 69.93 points, or 0.42 percent, to 16,493.37.

The S&P 500 lost 5.52 points, or 0.29 percent, to 1,925.15.

The Nasdaq Composite dropped 17.13 points, or 0.39 percent, to 4,352.64.

For the week, the TSX composite fell 1.6 percent, the S&P 500 fell 2.7 percent, the Dow fell 2.8 percent and the Nasdaq fell 2.2 percent.

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