PARIS, France (Reuters) — Rapeseed production in the European Union is expected to rise to 21.3 million tonnes in 2014-15, says the French-based analyst Strategie Grains.
The estimate is up 2.4 percent from 20.8 million this season as higher yields outweigh a drop in seeded acres.
The average yield in the next rapeseed crop would reach 57.1 bushels per acre, up 3.25 percent from 55.3 bu. per acre in this year’s harvest, offsetting an expected fall in area to 16.31 million acres, down 1.5 percent from 16.56 million, the analyst said in a monthly oilseed report.
The rise in EU output would be supported by a rebound in France, where the crop is seen 800,000 tonnes higher at 5.1 million tonnes. The 2013 French crop fell 20 percent on the year because of poor weather.
In its first production forecasts for the 2014-15 EU oilseed harvest, Strategie Grains also projected that the sunseed crop in the EU would fall 5.7 percent to 8.2 million tonnes from an estimated 8.7 million this season.
Production is notably expected to fall in Bulgaria and Romania after exceptionally good harvests this year, it said.
Strategie Grains had estimated last month that the oilseed area in the EU would fall in the next harvest because of a decline in profit margins for growers, as well as more attractive margins for wheat compared with rapeseed.
Rapeseed in the EU is almost exclusively a winter crop that is seeded in late summer. Sunseed is planted in spring so the 2014-15 crop is yet to go into the ground.
The supply for current European rapeseed supply is tight, in contrast to ample global supply fuelled by a record Canadian crop, the analyst said.
The difference between EU and world prices should widen to encourage more imports into the bloc.